Gemini turned its crypto exchange into a CFTC-regulated prediction market with its own clearinghouse, and it lives in the same account as your crypto. The market menu is wide and deposits are cheap, but sports liquidity is thinner than the leaders and several states are pushing back on sports contracts.
Gemini made its name as a regulated crypto exchange, and in late 2025 it added a prediction market that runs inside the same account. Gemini Predictions lets US users trade yes/no contracts on sports, crypto, politics, economics and culture using the USD balance they already hold at Gemini. It trades on Gemini’s own CFTC-designated exchange, which sets it apart from platforms that rely on someone else’s infrastructure.
New users can currently earn a 50% trade match, up to $100 in Predict Cash, on qualifying pro football trades, with no promo code required. See our Gemini promo code page for the full terms, including the 20 to 80 cent price window and the 30-day expiration.
Gemini Predictions trades on Gemini Titan, a Designated Contract Market that the CFTC approved in December 2025. A sister company, Gemini Olympus, holds a clearing license and has cleared trades in-house since August 2026, so Gemini controls both the exchange and the clearing. Every trade is fully collateralized, which means there is no margin and no borrowing. As with any prediction market, bank deposit insurance does not cover trading positions.
Every market is a yes-or-no question priced from 1 cent to 99 cents, and the price doubles as the implied probability. A winning contract pays $1.00 and a losing one pays nothing. You can sell before a market closes, and select events offer combo contracts that join two to six outcomes, where every leg has to hit.
Gemini lists a broad menu. Sports are a major category, with football, basketball, baseball, soccer and tennis, along with spreads, totals and player outcomes on many games. Beyond sports you will find crypto, politics, economics, culture and weather, and some crypto contracts run as short as five minutes. Sports contracts arrived in January 2026, starting with the College Football Playoff and the NFL Wild Card round. The trade-off for that breadth is liquidity, since early coverage noted thinner volume in Gemini’s sports markets than on the largest platforms.
Takers pay 0.07 times the contracts times the price times one minus the price, which peaks at about $1.75 per 100 contracts at a 50-cent price. Makers pay 0.0175, waived on qualifying trades through December 31, 2026. There are no settlement or membership fees. ACH and wire deposits are free, PayPal deposits cost 2.5%, ACH withdrawals are free and wire withdrawals cost $25. Withdrawals go only to a linked bank account, and new ACH deposits can be traded right away but take a few business days to become withdrawable.
Gemini says Predictions is open to US residents in all 50 states, but state regulators are pushing back. New York’s attorney general sued Gemini Titan in April 2026, alleging an unlicensed gambling operation, and the CFTC responded by suing New York to assert federal jurisdiction. Connecticut ordered Gemini and other platforms to stop sports contracts in September, and Ohio did the same in October. None of these actions challenge Gemini’s federal registration, but the question of who regulates sports event contracts is still moving through the courts. Minimum age is 18 in most states and 21 in some.
Gemini’s biggest advantage is convenience for anyone who already trades crypto, since prediction markets sit in the same account and balance. Its market menu is wide, its deposits are cheap, and it controls its own exchange and clearing. The downsides are thinner sports liquidity, fees that peak around 50-cent prices where many trades happen, a non-withdrawable welcome bonus, and an unsettled legal fight in several states. Compared with Kalshi, Gemini offers less liquidity but a tighter link to crypto. Start small, read the terms in the app, and only trade what you can afford to lose.
