Sunday’s Week 6 NFL slate is a big one, with a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff in London between the Texans and Jaguars, ten games on the DraftKings main slate, and Cowboys at Packers closing out the night. Three games on the main slate carry totals north of 50 points, the most we have seen all season, and the Rams are sitting on a 32-point implied total as 12.5-point favorites. That is a lot of offense to sort through.
My approach for today’s Sunday NFL DFS picks is simple: pay up for the best-projected stars in the highest-scoring games, then find salary relief at tight end where the matchups are better than the prices suggest. Every salary below is from DraftKings, and the late-swap window on the 4:05 and 4:25 games gives you room to adjust once inactives are posted.
Puka Nacua, WR — Los Angeles Rams ($8,100)
Nacua is the top-projected player on the slate at any position, and it is not hard to see why. He caught 17 passes on 24 targets in Monday night’s 37-34 overtime loss to Buffalo, and since returning from a groin injury that cost him Weeks 2 and 3 he has scored 30.7 and 40.7 DraftKings points.
Arizona has allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to wide receivers and the most points per game of any defense in the league at 32.4. With the Rams’ 32-point implied total, Nacua looks underpriced for his role. He should be popular in cash games, and the same ownership is the reason to consider leverage in large-field GPPs. His Rams teammate Matthew Stafford ($6,400) makes a natural stack, having posted 23 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four games, including 383 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills.
Josh Allen, QB — Buffalo Bills ($7,500)
Allen sits in the highest-total game of the week, Bills at Raiders at 53.5, with Buffalo carrying a 29-point implied total. Through five games he has 1,249 passing yards, seven touchdown passes and a league-best 239 rushing yards with eight rushing touchdowns. In last week’s overtime win over the Rams he ran 10 times for 121 yards and a score.
The matchup helps, too. The Raiders defense ranks 26th against the pass and gave up 45 points in New England last week. That rushing floor is what makes Allen such a strong cash-game option, and he does not need a stack to pay off. If you do want to pair him, tight end Dalton Kincaid ($5,100) is a low-owned ceiling play after a quiet stretch.
Kenneth Walker III, RB — Kansas City Chiefs ($8,500)
Walker has not scored fewer than 21 DraftKings points in any game this season, putting up 37.1, 26.8, 21.3 and 33.9 in his four contests. He is rested coming off a bye and faces a Chargers team that is 0-5 and a 7.5-point underdog in Kansas City.
That is the kind of game script where a lead back piles up carries in the fourth quarter. The Chargers have allowed the 13th-most DraftKings points to running backs, which is a fine matchup rather than a smash one, but the volume and the favorite status carry this play. He kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET, so he is a late-swap candidate if you need flexibility.
Brock Bowers, TE — Las Vegas Raiders ($7,500)
Bowers missed the first two weeks of the season after a September meniscus procedure and has been a wide receiver in a tight end’s body since. He has drawn 14, 11 and 10 targets in his three games and turned them into 30.6, 20.6 and 27.0 DraftKings points, scoring a touchdown in each one. He practiced in full on Thursday and Friday and carries no injury designation.
Buffalo’s defense has allowed the most DraftKings points to wide receivers and about 5.6 catches and 60 yards per game to tight ends, so a shootout script favors Bowers. If you want a cheaper way to get exposure to the same game, Kirk Cousins ($5,400) has put up 21.2, 22.2 and 24.6 DraftKings points in Weeks 2 through 4 and would likely be chasing points if Buffalo scores early.
Colston Loveland, TE — Chicago Bears ($4,300)
Here is the value play. Loveland has been disappointing through five weeks, with a season-best of 11.7 DraftKings points, but part of that can be blamed on Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum under center. Caleb Williams ($6,200) practiced in full all week and is expected to start against the Falcons, though he is officially questionable, so check the inactives before you lock anything in.
Atlanta is a pass-funnel defense, giving up 248.4 passing yards per game, sixth-most in the league, while allowing just 80.2 rushing yards. Bears at Falcons has a 51.5 total, and the Falcons have allowed 14.8 DraftKings points per game to tight ends. At a salary this low, Loveland frees up cap room to fit the stars above, and a Williams-to-Loveland bring-back is a cheap way to get different in GPPs.
Building Your Lineup
The cleanest way to build a lineup is to take the cap relief at tight end and quarterback and spend it on running backs. Stafford at $6,400 instead of Allen saves $1,100, which can help fit Walker and either Bijan Robinson ($8,700) or Kyren Williams ($6,800). The Rams stack of Stafford and Nacua with a cheap Tyler Higbee ($3,400) is the primary stack, with a Bills-Raiders game stack of Allen and Bowers as the alternative.
For anyone looking for sportsbook offers while building lineups, our Dabble promo code page has the latest sign-up details, and our live NFL odds board is worth a look before kickoff. Wind in Tampa is the only real weather concern, with gusts around 30 mph forecast for Steelers at Buccaneers, so lean away from deep passing plays in that game. Whether you are building a cash game lineup or chasing a GPP, check the inactive lists 90 minutes before each kickoff and use late swap to your advantage.
