Monday Night Football rolls into SoFi Stadium with a rematch of one of the wildest games of last season, when Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford combined for 662 passing yards and five touchdowns in a 44-42 Rams win. Buffalo (3-1) heads west to face a Los Angeles defense (2-2) that has quietly been one of the stingiest units in football through the air, while the Rams offense leans on a 38-year-old Stafford who has been turnover-prone all season. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET with the Rams favored by 3 and the total sitting at 54.5.

That combination — an elite quarterback going up against a shutdown secondary, and an aging gunslinger coming off back-to-back heavy workloads — sets up three passing props worth strong consideration for Monday night.

Josh Allen Over 244.5 Passing Yards

Allen has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league through four games, averaging 259.8 yards per game on 66.4% completion with 6 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions. He’s thrown for at least 240 yards in three of Buffalo’s four games, and the sample includes a performance against a defense allowing the fewest passing yards per game in football, Seattle.

The matchup history here matters. The last time Allen played at SoFi Stadium, he threw for 342 yards and ran for 82 more without a single turnover, nearly erasing a 17-point deficit twice before the Rams escaped. The Rams’ defense has clearly improved since then, now sitting at or near the top of the league in pass yards allowed (right around 145-154 per game), but that number has been built largely against lesser quarterbacks and backups — the Rams held the Giants in check after New York lost starter Jaxson Dart to injury. Allen is a different animal, and Buffalo projects to throw on nearly 60% of its snaps in this one, among the highest pass-rate marks of any team on the Monday slate. With sportsbooks setting this line anywhere from 240.5 to 249.5, the number at 244.5 sits right in Allen’s range even against a defense playing its best football.

Josh Allen Over 24.5 Completions

Volume is the other half of this equation. Allen is completing roughly 23.8 passes per game on about 119 attempts through four weeks, right around a 66% completion rate. That’s a high-rhythm, high-attempt profile, and it lines up with what the Rams want to force teams into — Los Angeles’ defense thrives on contested, low-YAC completions rather than taking away volume entirely.

The Rams’ secondary is banged up heading into Monday, with questions surrounding their defensive back depth after a physical stretch against the Eagles and 49ers. A shorthanded secondary combined with Buffalo’s pass-heavy game plan — especially if the Bills fall behind the way they did last time at SoFi — points toward a high-attempt, high-completion script for Allen. Hitting 25 completions only requires Allen to find his guy on roughly two of every three throws, which is right at his season baseline.

Matthew Stafford Under 278.5 Passing Yards

Stafford enters Monday fourth in the NFL in passing yards at 1,189 on the season, but the yardage has come with a real cost: six interceptions through four games, tied for the second-most in the league. He’s thrown a pick in four straight games, a troubling trend for a 38-year-old who’s coming off consecutive heavy workloads. Last week against Philadelphia, Stafford needed 51 attempts to get to 317 yards, completing just 32 passes (62.8%) and throwing two more interceptions in a game the Rams had to rally to win.

That workload is the key here — Stafford has thrown 106 passes over his last two games, an unsustainable pace that several analysts around the league have flagged as a fade-the-Under spot. Buffalo’s pass rush has been disruptive, and if the Bills can generate pressure and force quicker, shorter throws, that volume is unlikely to translate into another 300-yard day. Rams coach Sean McVay has also shown a willingness to lean on the run with Kyren Williams when the game script allows it, which would further cap Stafford’s attempts. Multiple books have this line between 277.5 and 285.5, and with Stafford trending toward turnovers rather than big plays, the Under looks like the smarter side.

Final Word on MNF Passing Props

This Monday night matchup sets up as a clash of styles at quarterback — Allen playing with rhythm and efficiency against a defense that’s better on paper than in quality of competition faced, and Stafford pushing high volume into diminishing returns. All three picks lean on real trends from the first month of the season.

Each of these bets is grounded in a clear matchup edge, and together they paint a picture of Buffalo controlling the passing game while Los Angeles’ veteran quarterback deals with mounting interception trouble. For bettors looking at live NFL odds ahead of kickoff, these three numbers stand out as the sharpest way to play Monday night through the air.