Sunday Night Football rolls into Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a matchup that looked a lot different a week ago. The Baltimore Ravens (3-1) travel to take on the red-hot Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at 8:20 PM ET on NBC and Peacock, but the headline isn’t the records — it’s who won’t be on the field. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is out with an ankle sprain suffered late in Baltimore’s Week 4 win over Tennessee, handing the keys to backup Tyler Huntley for just his second start of the season. Across the field, Michael Penix Jr. has turned the Falcons’ season around since taking over at quarterback, and Atlanta now rides a two-game winning streak into a home matchup as a rare favorite against Baltimore.

Why the Line Flipped Atlanta’s Way

For the first time all season, the Ravens are not favored. Atlanta opened and has held as roughly a 3.5-point favorite, with the total sitting at 43.5. Moneyline prices have Baltimore around +144 to +150 and the Falcons around -172 to -180 depending on the book, and most markets have both sides of the spread priced near -108 to -114 juice. Bettors tracking the number in real time can check live NFL odds as kickoff approaches.

The shift is almost entirely about Jackson’s absence. Since 2019, the Ravens are 82-37 with Jackson under center, averaging 27.8 points per game. Without him, Baltimore drops to 10-17 with just 19.6 points per game — a gap that explains why oddsmakers moved off their usual Ravens-friendly number. Huntley has been here before, though. He’s making his 17th career regular-season start (12th in relief of Jackson) and enters with a 5-7 record as a starter, including wins over playoff-caliber teams the last time he filled in.

Penix’s Turnaround and the Ground Game That Could Decide It

Atlanta’s two-game surge has been built on Penix playing some of the cleanest football of any quarterback in the league right now. Since taking over, he’s completing 73.3% of his passes for 479 yards, two touchdowns and just one interception, good for a 113.1 passer rating, and he’s been protected well — just one sack allowed over his last two starts behind the NFL’s lowest pressure rate allowed. The Falcons have outscored opponents 80-38 combined in wins over Green Bay (35-14) and New Orleans (45-24), and they’ve turned the ball over just once in that stretch.

Bijan Robinson has been every bit as responsible for the turnaround. He ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints and now ranks among the league’s top rushers, with Brian Robinson Jr. chipping in alongside him — the duo has combined for eight rushing touchdowns through four games. Drake London and Kyle Pitts give Penix reliable options through the air as well. The one potential counter: Atlanta’s run defense leads the NFL, allowing just 48.3 yards per game on the ground, which sets up a key test against Derrick Henry, who ranks fourth in the league with 374 rushing yards and is tied for the NFL lead with seven rushing touchdowns. With Jackson out, Henry’s workload — and production — becomes even more central to Baltimore’s game plan. Keep an eye on injury designations for Falcons edge rusher Za’Darius Smith (concussion protocol) and a banged-up Ravens defensive line that will also be without Trey Hendrickson (finger).

History Favors Baltimore, But Recent Trends Favor Atlanta

The Ravens hold a 5-2 edge in the all-time series, including a 2-2 record when playing in Atlanta, and they won the most recent meeting 17-9 back in December 2022. That history means little in the moment, though — Atlanta has won two straight by a combined 46 points, while Baltimore is coming off a solid win over Tennessee but now has to adjust on the fly behind a backup quarterback on the road in a loud dome environment for a primetime game.

Against the spread, the two teams have moved in opposite directions. The Falcons sit at 2-2 against the number while the Ravens are just 1-3, a trend that lines up with Baltimore being favored in most of its games this season and failing to cover despite often winning outright. This is also the third straight primetime appearance for Atlanta, following the Thursday night win over Green Bay and the Monday night win at New Orleans — a stretch that has clearly built confidence in a locker room that opened the season 0-2. First-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has steadied a group that looked lost in September and now looks like one of the more dangerous teams in the NFC heading into the back half of October.

Prediction and Best Bet

Expect a game that leans heavily on the ground, with Henry doing the heavy lifting for Baltimore against the league’s stingiest run defense and Penix continuing to play within himself behind a clean pocket. Atlanta’s recent form, home-field advantage, and quarterback stability should be enough to get it done, even if Huntley gives the Ravens a few quality drives. Those looking to get a number down before kickoff can compare a DraftKings promo code against other offers.

With Jackson sidelined, the Ravens’ offensive ceiling drops significantly, and Atlanta has shown over the last two weeks it can both move the ball efficiently and protect it — a combination that should be enough to cover at home.