Sunday’s slate is loaded with quarterbacks in spots that set up perfectly for passing prop value, and three names stand out above the rest. Jared Goff gets a feast of a matchup against the league’s worst pass defense, Matthew Stafford is riding a three-game yardage streak into a leaky Buffalo secondary, and Drake Maye offers a different kind of edge entirely — one that doesn’t depend on the Raiders’ defense cooperating at all.

Here’s why these three passing props deserve a spot on your card this week, broken down with the numbers that back them up.

Jared Goff Keeps Rolling Against Arizona’s Leaky Secondary

Jared Goff has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football through four weeks, completing 109 of 161 passes (67.7%) for 1,214 yards, 9 touchdowns, and zero interceptions — a 303.5 yards-per-game pace. He just dropped 412 yards on Carolina last week, and now he gets a matchup that’s arguably even more favorable.

Arizona’s defense has been a mess. The Cardinals rank 24th in passing yards allowed (233.8 per game) but dead last in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed at 9.1, and they’ve surrendered a passer rating of 114.9 — second-worst in the NFL. Their 11 touchdown passes allowed are tied for most in the league, and they’ve given up at least three passing scores in three straight games. Detroit’s -5.5 to -8.5 favorite status in this one tells you the blowout math could actually work in Goff’s favor through three quarters of clean pocket time.

The books have Goff’s passing yards line at 279.5 (-112 to go over) with a touchdown total around 2.5. With Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown both commanding attention on underneath and intermediate routes, the Cardinals’ thin coverage gets stretched even further. Goff clearing this number feels like one of the more comfortable overs on the board this week.

Matthew Stafford Has Buffalo’s Number

One quick scheduling note: this one is actually the Monday night matchup (Oct. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium), not Sunday — but it’s too strong a spot to leave off this card. Stafford has been pouring it on lately, going over his passing yards total in three straight games: 327 against the Giants, 390 against Denver, and 317 in a comeback win over Philadelphia. That’s an average of 344.7 yards per game over that stretch, well clear of the 283.5 line the market has set for Buffalo.

The matchup favors him too. Buffalo ranks 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 256.3 per game, a defense that’s been vulnerable through the air all season. Stafford now has Puka Nacua back and fully healthy — the best receiver in football drawing targets at a premium volume. Stafford has attempted at least 51 passes in each of his last two games, which means the volume is there even before accounting for efficiency.

Yes, he’s thrown at least one interception in four straight games, so there’s some risk tied to game script if the Rams get out ahead big. But yardage and picks aren’t mutually exclusive — Stafford has piled up big yardage numbers in that same four-game stretch of picks. The volume-driven over still looks live here.

Drake Maye’s Legs Are the Safer Play Than His Arm

Drake Maye’s box score doesn’t jump off the page at first glance — 854 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions on 73-of-117 passing (7.3 yards per attempt) through four games. The Raiders’ pass defense has actually been solid, ranking 8th in the league at 202.8 yards allowed per game, which makes attacking his passing yardage number a tougher sell than it might look on paper.

That’s exactly why the better angle here is Maye’s legs. He’s rushed 23 times for 136 yards this season, a strong 5.9 yards-per-carry average, with the Patriots clearly comfortable letting him create outside of structure when the pocket breaks down. His rushing yards prop sits right around 31.5 — a number he’s capable of clearing just by extending a handful of plays with his feet, independent of whatever Las Vegas’ defense does against his arm.

New England is favored at home (-3.5) in this one, which normally would mean fewer called designed runs for the quarterback late. But Maye has shown a willingness to tuck and run on scrambles regardless of score, and with Las Vegas’ front generating pressure at a respectable clip, those scramble opportunities should be there throughout the afternoon.

Sunday’s Edge

Three different angles, three different reasons to trust the numbers. Goff gets the best matchup of the week, Stafford brings volume and recent form into a vulnerable secondary, and Maye offers a prop that doesn’t hinge on beating a good pass defense at all. Check your NFL odds before kickoff since lines can shift.

Lock in the matchups, not just the names — that’s where the real value is hiding this week.