The Steelers and Browns renew one of the NFL’s oldest rivalries on Thursday Night Football, and for once, this AFC North clash isn’t just about the run game and defense. Both starting quarterbacks are quietly playing some of the best football of their careers through three weeks, and that sets up a slate of passing props that look genuinely beatable.

Pittsburgh (2-1) travels to Huntington Bank Field to face Cleveland (2-1) at 8:15 PM ET, with first place in the division on the line. The Steelers are sitting as 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 38.5, signaling oddsmakers expect both offenses to move the ball. Aaron Rodgers has found his rhythm after a slow start, and Deshaun Watson has been one of the most efficient passers in football relative to expectations. Here are three QB passing props worth backing, and the reasoning behind each one.

Aaron Rodgers OVER 212.5 Passing Yards

Rodgers just turned in his best game of the season, going 19-of-34 for 292 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-27 win over Cincinnati in Week 3. That performance pushed his season totals to 700 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions through three games — a tidy 233.3 yards per game average that sits comfortably above this posted line of 212.5.

What made the Cincinnati game notable wasn’t just the yardage — it was the way he got there. Rodgers averaged 8.6 yards per attempt, connected with nine different pass catchers, and hit five completions of 22-plus yards. After a sluggish first two weeks where he averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt on 59.5% completion, something clicked in Mike McCarthy’s offense, and the tape suggests it wasn’t a one-week fluke.

The matchup only helps his case. Cleveland’s defense ranks 18th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 224.0 per game — solid, but not the shutdown unit that defined the Browns’ defense in past seasons. Rodgers has now hit his passing-yardage number in each of his last two full-week gamelogs when factoring pace, and facing a defense that’s given up over 220 yards per game through the air sets up well for him to clear 212.5 again on Thursday night.

Deshaun Watson OVER 0.5 Passing Touchdowns

This is about as close to a layup as a prop gets. Watson has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every single game he’s played this season — he’s at five total touchdowns through three starts, with just one interception, and he’ll need only one score to clear this number outright.

Watson has been remarkably efficient in Kevin Stefanski’s offense, completing 68.3% of his passes for 587 yards this season. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in wins over Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Carolina, showing a consistency that hasn’t wavered regardless of opponent or game script.

The matchup tilts further in his favor. Pittsburgh’s pass defense ranks 8th in the league at 192.7 yards allowed per game on paper, but the unit is banged up at exactly the wrong position. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is dealing with a wrist injury serious enough that he was seen in a sling and wearing a cast at practice this week, while fellow corner Brandin Echols is working through the concussion protocol after a head injury sustained covering a muffed punt against Cincinnati. Both were limited participants heading into Thursday, and if either sits or plays compromised, Pittsburgh’s already-thin cornerback depth gets tested by a Browns offense that has found the end zone through the air in every game this season.

Deshaun Watson OVER 29.5 Rushing Yards

Watson’s legs remain an underrated part of his game, and it’s a dimension oddsmakers may still be under-pricing. He’s accumulated 105 rushing yards through three games — a 35.0 yards-per-game average that clears this 29.5 line on its own if he simply plays to his season norm.

He’s also trending up as a runner. Watson added 45 rushing yards on 11 carries in Cleveland’s Week 3 win over Carolina, his highest rush total of the season, showing he’s fully comfortable extending plays and pulling the ball down when nothing opens up downfield. That mobile, dual-threat dimension forces Pittsburgh’s defense to account for him as a runner on top of everything happening in the passing game, and with the Steelers already dealing with injuries in the secondary, expect Watson to look for extra yardage on scrambles rather than throwing the ball away.

Given his season-long pace and a recent uptick in rushing usage, 29.5 yards is a number Watson has cleared before and looks well-positioned to clear again.

Final Word on Thursday’s Passing Props

Both quarterbacks enter Thursday night playing the best football of their seasons, and the matchups line up favorably for all three of these bets. Rodgers gets a defense that’s given up nearly 225 yards per game through the air, while Watson gets a banged-up secondary missing key pieces and gets to lean on his legs when things break down. For bettors looking to build a same-game parlay or attack these individually, this trio stands out from the board.

With the division lead on the line and both offenses trending up, Thursday night in Cleveland could be a shootout — and these three props are built to cash in exactly that kind of game. Check the latest live NFL odds before kickoff to lock in the best numbers.