The NFL’s London series rolls on Sunday, October 4, when the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in a game that’s turned into more of a coin flip than the spread suggests. Both teams enter at 1-2, but the story behind that record — and behind the number on the board — is a lot messier than the win-loss column lets on.

Prediction markets have Indianapolis as the favorite in this one, but not by much. On Polymarket, the “Colts -3.5” spread market is pricing the Colts at roughly 48.5% to cover and Washington at about 51.5%, with 24-hour volume already north of $99,000 and total volume pushing past $77,000 — a sign bettors see this as a genuinely live number, not a lock either way.

Where the Line Opened and Where It’s Gone

This spread has moved, and the direction matters. It opened with Washington favored by 1.5 points, but has since flipped and settled with Indianapolis laying around 3 to 3.5 points depending on the book. FanDuel has the Colts at -3.5 (-174) with Washington at +3.5 (+146), while DraftKings and BetMGM both have it a touch tighter at Colts -3 against Washington +3. The moneyline tells a similar story — Indianapolis sits anywhere from -166 to -198, with Washington priced between +140 and +166.

The total has drifted too, moving from an opening 48.5 down to 47.5. That’s not a huge shift, but it fits a pattern: neutral-site games in London have historically trended lower-scoring and tighter than a typical NFL Sunday, and this one looks like it could follow suit. For fans looking to shop odds or track how these numbers keep shifting throughout the week, HR’s live NFL odds page is worth bookmarking before kickoff.

Two 1-2 Teams, Two Very Different Trajectories

On paper, both clubs sit at 1-2. In practice, they’ve gotten there very differently. Indianapolis just beat Houston 19-17 in its last outing, following a rough two-game stretch that included a 33-30 loss to Kansas City and a 41-23 defeat to Baltimore. Washington’s underlying form has been rockier — reports have the Commanders on an 0-5 skid across their last five outings when accounting for preseason and close losses, even though the regular-season record still reads 1-2.

The health report leans heavily in Indianapolis’s favor. Washington is dealing with a lengthy list of absences: tackle Laremy Tunsil is on IR, defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton is on IR, and the Commanders are also missing corner Trey Amos, running back Jeremy McNichols, and edge rusher Deatrich Wise Jr. through at least this week. Tight end Chig Okonkwo (hamstring), linebacker Frankie Luvu (groin), safety Nick Cross (illness), and guard Sam Cosmi (concussion) are all questionable or worse. Most critically, quarterback Jayden Daniels is dealing with an elbow injury and is listed as questionable at best — head coach Dan Quinn has said Daniels will travel with the team and practice in some capacity, but if he’s limited or held out, backup Marcus Mariota takes over an offense that’s already shorthanded.

Indianapolis isn’t fully healthy either — receivers Ashton Dulin (ankle) and Alec Pierce (heel) are both questionable, and the Colts are without tight end Will Mallory and edge rusher Micheal Clemons on IR — but the drop-off from starter to backup is nowhere near as steep as what Washington is facing at quarterback.

The Matchup That Could Decide It

If there’s one storyline driving the betting market’s lean toward Indianapolis, it’s Jonathan Taylor against a Washington run defense that’s without one of its top interior run-stoppers. Taylor was one of the league’s most productive backs in 2025, averaging 4.9 yards per carry with 18 rushing touchdowns and finishing with 1,585 rushing yards and 20 total scores. Washington allowed 141.8 rushing yards per game a season ago, and losing Jer’Zhan Newton off that front seven only makes the assignment harder against a back who thrives on physical, downhill carries.

ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Colts a 54.4% win probability compared to 45.2% for the Commanders — a gap that lines up almost exactly with where the prediction market has settled. It’s not a blowout projection by any means, but it’s a real, if modest, edge that both models and market money seem to agree on.

Prediction and What the Market Is Saying

Between the health report, the ground-game mismatch, and the way both models and sportsbooks have converged on Indianapolis as a mid-single-digit favorite, the Colts look like the side to lean toward — but not with total confidence, given how much this line has moved and how unpredictable London games can be from a pace and scoring standpoint.

If Daniels can’t go or is limited early, that tilts things even further toward Indianapolis controlling the clock behind Taylor and forcing Washington’s backup-led offense to play from behind — exactly the game script the prediction market currently seems to expect.