Thursday Night Football closes out Week 3 with the Atlanta Falcons traveling to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers, and this single-game slate is loaded with storylines that matter for DFS. Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for Atlanta after missing two weeks with a knee issue, instantly changing the complexion of a Falcons offense that had been forced to lean on Cooper Rush and Jack Strand. On the other side, the Packers are dealing with a receiver room that just lost Jayden Reed (neck) for the next several weeks, pushing more volume toward Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
With only two teams to build around on a single-game slate, correlation matters more than usual. The goal here is to identify players who profile as high-floor building blocks with a defined role, then pair them with value plays who can still hit a ceiling if the game turns into the shootout Vegas is pricing in. Here are five NFL DFS picks worth building around for tonight’s DraftKings and FanDuel Thursday Night Football slate.
Bijan Robinson, RB — Atlanta Falcons ($8,700 DK / $8,800 FD)
Robinson is the correct centerpiece for a Falcons lineup even in a game where Green Bay’s run defense ranks among the stingiest units in football. The Packers are surrendering just 2.85 yards per carry through two weeks, better than every team except the Los Angeles Chargers, but Robinson’s workload and receiving role make him matchup-proof in a way pure between-the-tackles runners aren’t.
He’s rushed for 155 yards on 37 carries this season and has been part of the passing game in a big way, catching eight of ten targets for 90 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 before a tougher Week 2 script limited him to three catches on four targets against Carolina. That two-week workload — 37 carries and 14 targets — is exactly the bell-cow usage that makes him worth paying up for even in a tough spot, and Penix’s return should mean fewer negative game scripts forcing Atlanta away from the run.
The concern is Green Bay’s front seven, which has been stout against the run all year. But Robinson’s receiving work provides a real floor DraftKings’ scoring format rewards, and with Atlanta’s offense expected to be more competent with Penix at QB, there should be more competitive snaps to work with than the 34-3 blowout he saw in Week 2.
Jordan Love, QB — Green Bay Packers ($5,700 DK / $8,000 FD)
Love is one of the best values on the entire slate at his DraftKings price point. He’s thrown for 532 yards and four touchdowns through two games, and he gets to face a Falcons defense that ranks 32nd in the league in total yards allowed and dead last against the pass, surrendering 244.5 yards per game through the air.
Atlanta’s pass rush has also struggled, ranking 24th in the league, which should give Love a clean pocket to work with against a secondary that’s been picked apart all season. The Packers’ offensive line has had issues in pass protection of its own, but Love has still produced efficiently behind it, and Atlanta’s inability to generate pressure narrows that risk considerably.
With Jayden Reed sidelined, Love’s volume should funnel even more directly to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, and that concentration of targets to two clear top options tends to produce cleaner, more predictable fantasy production for the quarterback distributing the ball. At $5,700, he’s priced like a backup and playing like a low-end QB1.
Christian Watson, WR — Green Bay Packers ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD)
Watson has been Green Bay’s most explosive weapon through two weeks, hauling in 6 of 8 targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 before leading the team in targets again in Week 2 with a 4-catch, 41-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Jets. He’s found the end zone in both games this season.
The bigger story now is opportunity. With Jayden Reed ruled out for Thursday’s game and expected to miss into October, Watson slides into an even clearer role as Green Bay’s top target earner. Atlanta’s defense has been vulnerable through the air all season, and Watson’s big-play ability against a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in explosive plays allowed makes him a legitimate touchdown and yardage threat at a price that still sits below the slate’s true top tier.
At $6,400 on DraftKings, Watson offers WR1 upside on a slate where he’s likely to see extended volume as Green Bay’s clear No. 1 target earner for the first time all season.
Drake London, WR — Atlanta Falcons ($5,700 DK)
London’s numbers through two weeks look modest on the surface — 10 targets, 80 yards and no touchdowns — but that production came almost entirely with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand throwing him the ball. He played 60 of 61 snaps in Week 1 and ran a route on 28 of 29 Falcons dropbacks, underscoring that the target competition simply hasn’t been able to consistently get him the football.
Penix’s return changes that equation. London remains Atlanta’s clear No. 1 receiver by both target share and route participation, and a competent starting quarterback should unlock more of the big plays London is capable of producing. He’s a four-year veteran with 309 catches for 3,961 yards and 22 touchdowns for his career, and last season he averaged a career-high 76.6 yards per game once healthy.
Green Bay’s pass defense ranks 22nd against the pass this season, giving London a favorable enough matchup to produce a bounce-back game now that he has a full-time starter throwing him the ball. At $5,700, he’s priced as a mid-tier value option with legitimate WR1 equity if Penix settles in quickly.
Michael Penix Jr., QB — Atlanta Falcons ($4,700 DK)
Penix is making his first start of the 2026 season on Thursday night after a knee issue kept him out of Atlanta’s first two games, and he’s a viable punt-play quarterback at his rock-bottom DraftKings price. Last season, in 14 games, Penix completed 59.6 percent of his passes for 2,757 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions with an 85.8 passer rating — respectable production for a young quarterback getting his first extended run as a starter.
The matchup isn’t gentle; Green Bay’s defense ranks eighth against the pass and has generated pressure at a solid rate early in the season. But Atlanta’s offense has been so thoroughly buried without a competent passer under center — dead last in the league in passing yards per game at 123.5 and 31st in scoring — that simply inserting a full-time starter represents a meaningful positive shift for every skill player attached to this offense, Penix included.
At $4,700, Penix doesn’t need a huge day to return value. He just needs to distribute the ball to London and Bijan Robinson at a competent level, which alone should be enough to beat his salary in a shootout-friendly game environment.
Building Your Lineup
On a two-team slate like this, correlation is everything. Pairing Jordan Love with Christian Watson captures the Packers’ passing game if Green Bay controls the game script at home, while stacking Michael Penix Jr. with Drake London gives you exposure to an Atlanta offense that should look drastically different than the version that got outscored 34-3 last week. Rostering Bijan Robinson alongside either passing stack lets you attack the game from multiple angles without needing to guess which team wins the line of scrimmage battle.
Salary-cap discipline matters here, too. Paying up for Robinson at $8,700 means finding value elsewhere, and both Love and Penix offer serious point-per-dollar upside at their respective price points, leaving room to roster Watson or London without breaking the bank. If you’re building a DraftKings lineup or setting a FanDuel picks roster for tonight’s game, prioritizing the volume and matchup edges outlined above should put you ahead of lineups built purely around name recognition. Vegas has priced this as a competitive, higher-scoring affair than the Falcons’ first two ugly showings, and that game script should reward rostering players tied to both offenses rather than fading one side entirely.
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