Strikeout props are one of the most beatable markets in baseball on the right night, and Monday’s slate has three starters worth betting on for swing-and-miss upside. Whether it’s a workhorse chasing his 153rd punchout of the year, a rookie sensation who’s already rewriting Blue Jays history, or a former top prospect making his long-awaited return to a big-league mound, all three of these arms have real paths to clearing 3.5 strikeouts.

Here’s the “why” behind each pick, broken down with the stats and matchup context that back it up.

Shane Baz Has the Swings-and-Misses to Clear the Number Again

Shane Baz (#34, Orioles) takes the mound against the Blue Jays with a 6-15 record and a 4.11 ERA, but the surface-level numbers undersell what he’s doing with his fastball-slider combo late in the year. Baz has racked up 152 strikeouts on the season, and he’s been remarkably consistent about getting to the 3.5 threshold — he’s fanned at least five in each of his last three outings, including six against Boston, five against Cleveland, and two in a shortened four-inning start against the Mets.

The volume here matters. A pitcher averaging north of five strikeouts a start doesn’t need a career night to clear a line set at 3.5 — he just needs a normal one. Baz’s 1.35 WHIP means Baltimore’s defense isn’t going to bail him out with quick outs, either; he’s the one doing the work, missing bats with velocity that’s held up deep into a long individual season.

Toronto’s lineup strikes out at a manageable but not elite rate, which keeps this from being an automatic overlay, but Baz has the swing-and-miss stuff and the recent workload to get him comfortably past four strikeouts most nights.

Trey Yesavage Is Missing Bats at a Historic Rate

Trey Yesavage (#39, Blue Jays) is the most electric arm in this trio, and the numbers back it up. In 18 starts as a rookie, Yesavage has posted a 3.65 ERA with 91 strikeouts and a sparkling 1.14 WHIP — elite run prevention paired with a real strikeout rate. His MLB debut back on September 15 set the tone: nine strikeouts in five-plus shutout innings against Tampa Bay, the most strikeouts in a debut in Blue Jays franchise history, with 19 swings-and-misses on just 69 pitches.

That swing-and-miss ability hasn’t faded. Books currently have Yesavage’s strikeout total priced around 3.5, and Action Network’s model likes the over here, pegging real value on the number given his season-long strikeout pace. A 1.14 WHIP means Yesavage isn’t just avoiding damage — he’s missing bats consistently enough that hitters rarely put together long at-bats against him, and long at-bats are exactly what drives strikeout totals up.

Facing Baltimore in Camden Yards adds a slight wrinkle for total outs and hits, but for a pure strikeout look, Yesavage’s swing-and-miss profile travels well on the road.

DJ Herz’s Return Start Sets Up a Sneaky Strikeout Spot

DJ Herz (#77, Nationals) is the most interesting name on this list, and not because of anything he’s done recently — he hasn’t pitched in the majors since September 2024. Herz is finally making his return from Tommy John surgery, and the strikeout stuff that made him a name to know as a rookie hasn’t gone anywhere. Over 19 starts in 2024, Herz averaged 5.58 strikeouts per outing and posted 106 strikeouts across 88.2 career innings, missing bats at a well above-average clip for a young left-hander.

The concern with any pitcher coming off a long layoff is workload — Herz will likely be capped around four innings in his first start back, which is exactly why the market has this line sitting at just 3.5 with the juice leaning toward the under. That’s the market pricing in rust and a short outing, not necessarily his stuff. His last few rehab appearances have shown the swing-and-miss ability is intact, and the matchup helps: Detroit has struck out at a rate north of 24% against left-handers over the last 30 days, one of the higher marks in baseball. A lefty with strikeout stuff facing a lineup that’s actively expanding the zone against southpaws is a good spot to bet the over even on a pitch-count leash.

If Herz gets stretched anywhere close to his 2024 workload, the juice on this number should feel light in retrospect.

Lock These In

All three of these arms bring swing-and-miss stuff to the mound, and the recent form and matchups line up in their favor. Here’s the full card:

Baz and Yesavage are the safer, volume-based bets, while Herz is the value play for anyone comfortable betting on stuff over workload. Shop these live MLB odds before locking in your card, since strikeout lines can move once lineups are finalized.