Dodgers vs. Cubs Prediction: Tarik Skubal Exploits Chicago’s Depleted Bullpen at Wrigley

Tarik Skubal takes the mound at Wrigley Field for the first time in his career, and the Cubs are running out of pitchers to throw at the best record in baseball.

Quick take:

• Pick: Dodgers moneyline
• Why: Tarik Skubal’s 0.910 WHIP against a Cubs bullpen that’s lost half its high-leverage arms to injury
• The number to watch: Skubal’s 2.79 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP against a Cubs lineup missing Matt Shaw

The Dodgers roll into Chicago at 69-42, still comfortably ahead in the NL West and playing with the swagger of a team built for October, not April. The Cubs, at 63-48 and sitting second in the NL Central behind Milwaukee, need this series to matter — a home set against the sport’s most talked-about roster is exactly the kind of measuring-stick moment Chicago has been chasing all summer. Shohei Ohtani remains a DH-only presence for now while he manages a knee issue, which means the Cubs stay the only team he’s never actually pitched against in his career — a strange little footnote hanging over an otherwise straightforward series.

This is the middle game of a three-game set at Wrigley, and the Cubs already know how quickly things can slip against this roster. Monday’s opener saw Matthew Boyd match up with Justin Wrobleski in a battle of two of the more surprising breakout arms in baseball this year, and however that one played out, Chicago knows the margin for error only shrinks as the series goes on. Wednesday’s finale brings Shota Imanaga against Roki Sasaki, which means the Cubs are trotting out three legitimate big-league starters in as many days just to keep pace — exactly the kind of stretch that exposes a shorthanded bullpen.

Why the Market Isn’t Buying the Upset

Sportsbooks have priced this one as a clear Dodgers favorite, with moneyline numbers hovering in the -125 to -200 range depending on the book and the total sitting right around 8 runs. That gap is wider than the six-game separation between these teams might suggest, and it comes down to one thing: who’s on the mound. Bettors checking live MLB odds tonight will see the number moving slightly toward the Dodgers as first pitch approaches. The market isn’t just backing the better record, it’s backing the better arm.

Tuesday, August 4 at 8:06 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers	-1.5 (-132)	-203	O 9 (100)
Chicago Cubs	+1.5 (105)	+183	U 8.5 (102)

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Both clubs have been playing meaningful baseball into August, but the underlying health of each pitching staff tells two very different stories.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Skubal vs. a Cubs Bullpen Running on Fumes

Tarik Skubal gets the ball for Los Angeles carrying a 2.79 ERA and a 0.910 WHIP, numbers that would headline any rotation in baseball. Command has been his calling card all year — he’s not overpowering hitters so much as never giving them a pitch worth hunting. Opposite him, Javier Assad has been a quietly effective mid-rotation piece for Chicago at 6-1 with a 3.75 ERA, but the concern for the Cubs isn’t Assad’s five or six innings — it’s everything after that.

Chicago’s bullpen has been gutted. Daniel Palencia, Hoby Milner, Gavin Hollowell, Phil Maton, Ben Brown, Ethan Roberts, and Edward Cabrera are all currently unavailable, a list that reads like half a functional relief corps. That’s the kind of depth loss that turns a competitive game into a laugher once the starter is out, especially against a Dodgers lineup that doesn’t need many mistakes to make a pitcher pay. The Dodgers have their own absences — Will Smith, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow among them — but Los Angeles has spent years building precisely the kind of pitching depth that survives injuries like these. Chicago is still working on that.

The Cubs are also without Matt Shaw, who’s been dealing with a hand injury, taking a productive bat and a steady defensive presence off Chicago’s infield at exactly the wrong time. Depth pieces can cover for a missing regular over a week; it’s harder to do that when the bullpen behind your starter is this thin at the same time. Los Angeles, by contrast, still trots out a lineup deep enough to survive without Smith behind the plate — that’s the difference between a contender managing a bruise and a team trying to paper over a real hole.

Skubal’s 0.910 WHIP is the lowest of any starter in this series, and it’s not particularly close.

That WHIP matters more than the raw ERA in a game like this. It means fewer free baserunners for a Dodgers offense that has made a habit of stacking innings once the door is even slightly open. Against a taxed Cubs bullpen, a couple of extra baserunners in the sixth or seventh inning can turn a two-run game into a five-run one fast.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Dodgers have the better starter, the deeper bullpen, and a lineup that thrives against tired relief corps — all three factors point the same direction. Chicago can hang for five or six innings behind Assad, but the math gets ugly once Skubal hands things off to a Dodgers bullpen that’s rested compared to what Chicago can offer in response.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 5, Chicago Cubs 2
2. Best Bet: Dodgers on the moneyline

Fade the Cubs bullpen tonight — that’s the whole game plan, and Skubal is built to make sure Chicago needs it early.