Caitlin Clark is playing through a back issue and Indiana still can’t be caught, which tells you everything about the gap between these two Eastern Conference clubs on Wednesday night.
Quick take:
- Pick: Indiana Fever -10.5
- Why: The Fever are 16-10 and rolling with a healthy core, while the Sun are 7-19 and missing Aaliyah Edwards entirely
- The number to watch: Indiana has won four straight head-to-head meetings against Connecticut
Indiana enters riding a two-game winning streak and sits sixth in the standings at 16-10, while Connecticut has dropped to 7-19 and currently occupies seventh in the East. The Sun did just snap a five-game skid heading into the All-Star break stretch, winning five of their last nine, but Wednesday’s trip to Gainbridge Fieldhouse is a tall order against a Fever team that just demolished New York 108-88 in its last outing.
This is also a rematch of a season series that’s been thoroughly one-sided. Indiana took the first meeting back in June at Mohegan Sun Arena, 85-75, behind a huge fourth-quarter push from Sophie Cunningham and a 25-point night from Clark, and the Fever have simply been the more complete team every time these two have shared the floor. Connecticut’s front office has leaned on youth and reclamation projects to rebuild this season, and while that approach has flashes of promise, it hasn’t yet translated into results against the East’s better rosters.
Why the Line Sits Where It Does
Books have Indiana as roughly a -520 favorite on the moneyline with a 10.5-point spread, and the market isn’t overreacting — it’s simply reflecting two teams heading in opposite directions. Connecticut is getting a full 10.5 points to work with, and after covering in 12 of 23 games this season, backing the Sun to simply stay within striking distance isn’t unreasonable, even against a clearly superior roster. The total sits at 178.5, with slightly more money leaning toward the under given Connecticut’s offensive limitations on the road.
| Wednesday, July 22 at 8:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Connecticut Sun | 
+10.5 (-115) |
+375 | 
O 179.5 (-107) |
| Indiana Fever | 
-10.5 (-113) | 
-480 |
U 178.5 (-110) |
Recent Form
The gap between these two rosters shows up clearly when you stack their last several outings side by side, and the head-to-head history only reinforces it.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | +5.5 / 159.5 | Won 83-96 | Won / Over |
| Jul 19, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | +5.5 / 159.5 | Lost 72-63 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 18, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | +3.5 / 163.5 | Won 83-96 | Won / Over |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Portland Fire | -2.5 / 166.5 | Won 90-87 | Won / Over |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Golden State Valkyries | +5.5 / 153.5 | Lost 64-79 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | +7.5 / 165.5 | Lost 80-86 | Won / Over |
| Jul 7, 2026 | @Minnesota Lynx | +11.5 / 165.5 | Won 89-90 | Won / Over |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Dallas Wings | +6.5 / 171.5 | Lost 83-86 | Won / Under |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Washington Mystics | +3.5 / 164.5 | Won 68-57 | Won / Under |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Chicago Sky | +3.5 / 169.5 | Won 92-63 | Won / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | New York Liberty | +10.5 / 193.5 | Won 108-88 | Won / Over |
| Jul 19, 2026 | New York Liberty | +4.5 / 189.5 | Won 108-88 | Won / Over |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -11.5 / 208.5 | Won 110-107 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Golden State Valkyries | -2.5 / 166.5 | Lost 75-88 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 13, 2026 | @Las Vegas Aces | +4.5 / 181.5 | Won 75-109 | Won / Over |
| Jul 10, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | -1.5 / 171.5 | Won 89-92 | Won / Over |
| Jul 9, 2026 | @Los Angeles Sparks | -5.5 / 181.5 | Lost 106-92 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 5, 2026 | @Las Vegas Aces | +2.5 / 180.5 | Won 68-84 | Won / Under |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Los Angeles Sparks | -6.5 / 182.5 | Won 111-87 | Won / Over |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Phoenix Mercury | -8.5 / 176.5 | Lost 109-111 | Lost / Over |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Connecticut Sun | @Indiana Fever | +8.5 / 170.5 | Lost 75-85 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Connecticut Sun | @Indiana Fever | +6.5 / 167.5 | Lost 93-99 | Won / Over |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Connecticut Sun | @Indiana Fever | +15.5 / 166.5 | Lost 77-85 | Won / Under |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @Connecticut Sun | -17.5 / 165.5 | Won 88-71 | Lost / Under |
| May 30, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @Connecticut Sun | -11.5 / 158.5 | Lost 83-85 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 25, 2024 | Connecticut Sun | @Indiana Fever | -6.5 / 163.5 | Won 87-81 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Connecticut Sun | @Indiana Fever | -6.5 / 165.5 | Won 93-69 | Won / Under |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Indiana Fever | @Connecticut Sun | +4.5 / 164.5 | Won 84-80 | Won / Under |
| Jun 10, 2024 | Connecticut Sun | @Indiana Fever | -10.5 / 159.5 | Won 89-72 | Won / Over |
| May 20, 2024 | Indiana Fever | @Connecticut Sun | +5.5 / 163.5 | Lost 84-88 | Won / Over |
Clark’s Health and Indiana’s Depth Advantage
Clark is dealing with a lingering back issue that’s had her on a minutes restriction over the last four games, and she’s listed as probable rather than a lock. Even in a reduced role, she’s averaging north of 21 points and eight assists a night, and Indiana has learned to win without leaning on her for max minutes. Kelsey Mitchell has been the steadying force all season, averaging roughly 21.6 points on a career-best 48.6% shooting from the field, and Aliyah Boston has quietly turned into a three-level scorer, posting 17 points and nearly nine rebounds a game while shooting a career-high clip from three. All three were voted in as All-Star starters, which says plenty about the depth Indiana can throw at a shorthanded Connecticut frontcourt.
The Sun, meanwhile, are trying to piece things together on the fly. Aaliyah Edwards is out for the season finale stretch with a knee injury, Damiris Dantas is out as well, and Brittney Griner is questionable with her own knee issue after averaging 15 points in limited action since returning. Aneesah Morrow was just cleared off the injury report and gives Connecticut a legitimate double-double threat inside — she’s averaging 10.5 points and 9.4 rebounds — but asking her to anchor the frontcourt without Edwards or a fully healthy Griner is a lot to ask against Boston and this Fever bench.
Indiana has beaten Connecticut four straight times, including an 85-75 win at Mohegan Sun Arena back in June.
That head-to-head trend matters here. This isn’t a new matchup for either roster — it’s a continuation of a pattern that’s held all season, and nothing about Connecticut’s current injury report suggests Wednesday breaks it.
Still, live betting is worth watching in-game. Connecticut has actually covered more often than not this year, and a double-digit favorite on the road against a division rival always carries some garbage-time backdoor-cover risk. Fans looking to track the number as it shifts can check the live betting odds page for real-time movement before and during tip-off.
Prediction and Best Bet
Indiana’s depth, health, and recent form all point the same direction. Connecticut can hang around for stretches behind Morrow’s rebounding, but the Fever’s backcourt scoring and superior frontcourt options should be enough to pull away in the second half.
The pick:
- Prediction: Indiana Fever 91, Connecticut Sun 80
- Best Bet: Indiana Fever -10.5
Take the Fever to cover behind another efficient night from Mitchell and Boston, with Clark managing her minutes but still doing enough to keep Connecticut at arm’s length all night.
