Best MLB DFS Picks Today: Top Value Plays for July 7
Tuesday’s MLB slate is about as loaded as it gets, with all 30 teams in action across a mix of afternoon and evening games, headlined by the Brewers and Cardinals kicking off a doubleheader at Busch Stadium. DraftKings’ featured contest locks at 7:10 p.m. ET and covers nine of the day’s matchups, giving DFS players plenty of stacking options and pitching paths to build around.
With a slate this deep, the goal today is balancing a true stud arm at the top with a genuine bargain on the mound, then filling out the lineup with hitters who have real, exploitable matchup edges rather than just name recognition. Here are five plays worth building around for cash games and GPPs alike.
Zack Wheeler, SP — Philadelphia Phillies ($10,500 DK)
If you’re going to pay up for a pitcher on this slate, Wheeler is the arm to do it with. He carries an 8-1 record into his start against the Reds with a 2.36 ERA and a stingy 0.94 WHIP across 13 starts this season. He’s racked up 84 strikeouts in 80.0 innings, and his underlying metrics back up the surface numbers — an elite chase rate and an above-average strikeout rate that sits at 27.3%, good for the 80th percentile among starters.
The matchup lines up well, too. Cincinnati’s offense has managed just a .680 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 26th in baseball on a .225/.303/.377 slash line in the split. The Reds also carry a 24.8% strikeout rate against right-handers, second highest among all clubs, which plays right into Wheeler’s swing-and-miss profile. He’s averaging 22.4 fantasy points per game with a realistic ceiling in the 30s, making the salary an easy pill to swallow at the top of a lineup. If you’re setting your DraftKings lineup today, Wheeler is a fine anchor to build around.
Robert Gasser, SP — Milwaukee Brewers ($7,000 DK)
Gasser carries a bit more risk given he’s taking on a Cardinals lineup that ranks in the top half of baseball offensively, but the price reflects that risk and then some. He’s 1-3 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP through seven starts, with 36 strikeouts across 35.2 innings — solid marks that undersell what’s happening beneath the surface.
Gasser’s expected numbers are considerably better than his results: an 78th-percentile xERA and 87th-percentile xBA, paired with a low average exit velocity allowed and a 94th-percentile hard-hit rate suppressed. He was even better in June specifically, posting a 3.95 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over five starts and allowing two or fewer earned runs in three of them. St. Louis has a .715 OPS against lefties, but a modest .136 ISO in the split means they’re unlikely to do much damage in the power department. With 15.6 DKFP in three of his last five outings, Gasser is a legitimate value option for anyone bullish on the Brew Crew today, and a solid way to save salary if you’d rather spend up on hitting with your FanDuel picks.
Miguel Vargas, 3B — Chicago White Sox ($5,000 DK)
Vargas has quietly been one of the most productive hitters in the White Sox lineup this season, averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game overall, and he turns into an entirely different hitter against left-handed pitching. He’s slashing an absurd .303/.431/.629 against southpaws for a 1.060 OPS, with 27 hits and eight home runs, plus 17 runs and 14 RBI in the split.
He does draw a tougher assignment than usual in Red Sox lefty Payton Tolle, who owns a 3.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while limiting hard contact. That said, Vargas’s track record against pitchers of similar handedness this year suggests the matchup difficulty may matter less than it looks on paper. At $5,000, he’s a strong building block at the hot corner in a game where both offenses have paths to production, and a name worth tracking through the day’s MLB odds movement.
Jake McCarthy, OF — Colorado Rockies ($4,200 DK)
Dodgers lefty Justin Wrobleski has been excellent this season with a 2.80 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, but McCarthy’s reverse splits give him a real shot at cashing in against him. The lefty-swinging outfielder owns a .386/.386/.596 line against left-handed pitching this year for a .982 OPS, including a pair of home runs in the split.
Walks aren’t part of his game, but that’s easy to overlook given the production. McCarthy is averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game and has posted lines of 10, 47 and 29 DKFP in three of his last four contests, hitting 20-plus DKFP an additional three times over his last 15 games overall. He’s shown real ceiling at the plate lately, and Dodger Stadium’s hitting environment only adds to the appeal for a night game against a quality left-hander. Worth checking the latest DFS promotions before you lock this one in.
Garrett Mitchell, OF — Milwaukee Brewers ($3,400 DK)
Mitchell pairs nicely with Gasser if you want exposure to the Brewers on both sides of the ball. The lefty-hitting outfielder has been a foundational piece against right-handed pitching this season, posting an .855 OPS on a .269/.361/.495 line in the split. He’s coming off a strong stretch, logging double-digit DKFP in four straight games from June 30 through July 3 before adding eight more on Independence Day.
Mitchell is averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game overall but has bumped that up to 9.7 over his last 10 contests, and he’s put up 8.2 FPPG against the Cardinals specifically this season. He draws Michael McGreevy, a right-hander who’s due for some regression with an eighth-percentile xERA and fourth-percentile xBA, making Mitchell a low-cost outfield option with real correlation to the Gasser pitching stack.
Building Your Lineup
The natural stack today runs through Milwaukee, pairing Gasser on the mound with Mitchell in the outfield to capture both sides of a favorable matchup profile against a Cardinals team that hasn’t been overwhelming against left-handed pitching. If you want to go a different direction with your pitching, rostering Wheeler at the top gives you a true stud arm with a strikeout-heavy floor against a Reds lineup that chases and whiffs more than most.
Salary-wise, pairing Wheeler’s premium price with value bats like Mitchell and Gonzalez-type plays lets you get correlated exposure in the middle and bottom of your lineup without blowing your cap. Vargas and McCarthy both carry projected ownership that should climb as the day goes on given how clean their matchups look on paper, so in tournament formats, consider pivoting off one of them toward a cheaper bat in a similar split if you need to differentiate. In cash games, all five of these plays offer a strong floor-to-ceiling combination for today’s MLB DFS slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. For more breakdowns before you set your lineups, check out our DFS reviews hub.
Aaron White
Sports Betting Contributor
Aaron White graduated from Northwestern University with a B.A. in Economics. His industry experience includes projects for the Chicago Cubs, The Sporting News, and QL Gaming Group. At Hello Rookie, he covers the NFL and NBA from a betting and DFS perspective.
