Winnipeg Jets vs Anaheim Ducks Prediction — Can The Ducks Stay Hot At Home?

The Winnipeg Jets are heading out west to take on the Anaheim Ducks in a game that suddenly feels bigger than expected despite the records. Anaheim is absolutely rolling, and Winnipeg is dealing with injuries. Both teams picked up wins coming out of the Olympic break, but only one looks fully healthy heading into tonight’s showdown.

The Ducks already beat the Jets once this season and now they get them at home while riding serious momentum. We think you’re going to like the odds the bookmakers put on this one.

Game Details and Betting Odds

It’s a late one with the puck drop set for 9:00 PM ET in Anaheim. The Ducks enter as home favorites at -130 on the moneyline, while the Jets sit at +110, and the total is set at 6.5 goals.

Winnipeg comes in at 23-26-8 on the season, near the bottom of the Central Division, and Anaheim sits at 31-23-3 and firmly in the Pacific Division race. The Ducks already won the first meeting 4-1 back in November and currently lead the season series 1-0.

Anaheim has been undeniably strong at home. Winnipeg has struggled on the road and in tight games. That context matters with a short price on the Ducks.

Jets vs Ducks Breakdown

This game starts in between the pipes.

For Winnipeg, Connor Hellebuyck is expected to return after his phenomenal Olympic run, where he stopped 40 of 41 shots against an absolutely stacked Canadian team. He owns a 13-16-7 record with a 2.79 GAA and a .900 SV%. Sure, those are solid numbers, but not elite this year. He has proven he can stand on his head when he needs to, but consistency isn’t his strong suit this year. Eric Comrie filled in last game and picked up a 3-2 OT win over Vancouver, stopping 21 shots. Still, Winnipeg clearly prefers Hellebuyck in this spot and who could blame them?

Anaheim counters with Lukas Dostal, who has been steady all season. He’s 22-13-2 with a 2.98 GAA and a .895 SV%. Like Hellebuyck, those numbers aren’t flashy, but nonetheless reliable. The Ducks also have depth behind him, though Dostal has carried most of the load this season.  We think tonight’s game will start with Hellebuyck and Dostal, but neither has been confirmed just yet.

The bigger issue for Winnipeg is the blue line.

Josh Morrissey is out for a few days. That’s a massive loss to the team. He drives play from the back end and leads transitions. Neal Pionk is week-to-week, and that hit strips even more depth. Winnipeg’s defense is already fairly thin, but it is looking worse right now. That matters against a Ducks team that’s been scoring plentifully.

Anaheim just beat Edmonton 6-5 in a wild game. That win marked head coach Joel Quenneville’s 1,000th NHL win. The Ducks have now won 3 straight and 10 of their last 12. That’s not a fluke stretch, instead, that’s sustained form. They continue to get on the board and Dostal is keeping them in the game.

Offensively, Mark Scheifele leads Winnipeg with 70 points, including 27 goals and 43 helpers. He also leads the team in goals. He is the undeniable engine of this team, and when he’s on, Winnipeg can score with anyone. But behind him, the scoring has been a little inconsistent.

Anaheim’s offense is well-balanced, which keeps opponents on their toes. Cutter Gauthier has 50 points with 26 goals and 24 assists. On top of that, he’s also firing the puck, with 200+ shots on the season. Troy Terry leads the team with 32 assists and remains one of their most reliable playmakers.

Team stats show Anaheim averaging 3.25 GF/G compared to Winnipeg’s 2.84 GF/G. That’s a notable gap that we simply cannot overlook. The Ducks also generate more shots per game, and Winnipeg is middle of the pack in most offensive categories.

Special teams are a little closer, but we don’t think this will determine the game. Winnipeg’s power play sits at 18.8% while Anaheim is at 17.9%. Neither is what we’d call dominant, so this will most likely come down to 5-on-5 play.

And at 5-on-5, Anaheim has been better lately.

The Jets did pick up a 3-2 OT win against Vancouver in their return game. But they’ve lost 3 of their last 5 overall. Anaheim, meanwhile, has won 3 straight.

Momentum is real in this league, and we all know that confidence matters.

Why Anaheim Has The Edge

We’ll start with health.

The Ducks have no major injuries heading into this matchup, whereas Winnipeg does. Losing Morrissey changes the structure of their defense, as this will affect breakouts and matchups. It puts pressure on depth players to take on bigger minutes that they might not be used to.

Anaheim’s scoring surge over the last 12 games isn’t random, either. They are pushing the pace and getting production from multiple lines and that kind of depth makes them harder to shut down.

The Jets are also not built to chase games right now. Sure, they have one of the hottest netminders in the crease, but their offense ranks lower in goals per game. If Anaheim jumps ahead, perhaps they find a way to get a few past Hellebuyck, Winnipeg may not have the firepower to respond, especially with defensive depth stretched thin.

Anaheim’s home record has been strong and Winnipeg’s road record has not. Add in the fact that the Ducks already beat them 4-1 earlier this season, and the psychological edge leans to Anaheim.

Another key factor we looked at closely is game style.

The total is set at 6.5, but this feels more like a controlled game that won’t spiral out of control. Winnipeg tends to play tighter hockey when Hellebuyck is in the net. Anaheim can score, but they don’t need to turn every game into a track meet. If they get a lead, they can manage it through to the end.

Lastly, Winnipeg also struggles in one-goal games and Anaheim has been finishing those. If this is a close game, as we’re thinking it might be, this won’t be a good spot for the Jets.

This spot favors the hotter team with fewer injuries and home ice.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Jets are dealing with too much on the blue line, and that’s hard to ignore. Losing Josh Morrissey is not something you just patch up overnight. Now throw in the fact that Anaheim is confident, scoring, and healthy on top of that.

We expect a competitive game early, but the Ducks’ depth and home energy should take over somewhere near the middle of the game. Cutter Gauthier and Troy Terry have been driving offense, and Winnipeg’s defense just isn’t at full strength.

• Prediction: Ducks 4, Jets 2.
• Best Bet: Anaheim Ducks moneyline at -130.

The price is fair for the hotter, healthier team at home. Everything points toward Anaheim extending its win streak. If Hellebuyck wasn’t in the net, we’d take the -1.5 puckline at +190, but when he’s in there, that’s a tall order for any team.