Buffalo Sabres vs New Jersey Devils Prediction — Can Jersey Snap the Skid at Home?

The NHL is back!

But with that, the New Jersey Devils are returning from the Olympic break with questions to answer. A 3-game losing streak hangs over them, a key star — the infamous Jack Hughes — is dealing with some potential travel delays, and a hot Buffalo Sabres team rolls into Newark with confidence. Wednesday night’s matchup has playoff energy after coming back from that wild USA win over Canada to take the gold, and both teams are fighting in tight divisions.

Game Details and Betting Odds

The Sabres enter at 32-19-6 with the Devils sitting at 28-27-2. Puck drop is set for 7 p.m. EST in Newark.

The bookmakers are giving New Jersey a slight home favorite at -116 with Buffalo close behind at -104. The total is set at 6.

This is the 3rd meeting of the season, and the series is tied 1-1, as Buffalo won the last matchup 3-1. That result definitely matters. It showed they can slow down New Jersey’s attack and dictate pace.

Buffalo has been strong when hitting the 3-goal mark. They are 30-4-5 when scoring 3+ goals in a game, but let’s keep in mind that New Jersey is also dangerous in that area, posting a 22-8-1 record when they light the lamp 3+ times.

The key? Who gets to 3 first?

Sabres Playing Fast and Confident

Buffalo has quietly become one of the more balanced teams in the Atlantic. They are 4th in the division with 70 points, which is only 2 points down from 2nd. They score 3.37 GF/G, which is well above New Jersey’s 2.51 GF/G.

The offense runs through Tage Thompson, who has 30 goals and 59 points. He is averaging 5 SOG per game and already has 204 shots on the year. When he gets space, he does serious damage. His ability to create off the rush is a problem for any defense.

Then there’s Alex Tuch, who has 21 goals and 26 assists. He gives Buffalo a steady presence on the wing as he is able to finish and also set up teammates. Over the last 10 games, Jason Zucker has chipped in 5 goals, which goes to show their depth is showing up.

Buffalo is averaging 3.8 GF/G over its last 10 games, and that’s far from a small stretch. They’ve gone 6-3-1 in that span. Even in losses, they’ve generated chances and got on the board.

Their power play clicks at 20.1%. That’s fairly solid, but it puts them in the middle of the pack. The PK is even better at 82.5%, which places them 7th in the league. That could matter against a Devils team that doesn’t have a big edge on special teams.

Defensively, Buffalo allows 3.09 GAA and while that’s not elite, it’s still steady. The best thing about their defense is that they don’t give up much in bunches. They have resilience.

Goaltending has been decent. Alex Lyon owns a .913 SV% with a 2.72 GAA and with numbers like that, he gives Buffalo a chance most nights. That’s often enough when the offense is rolling.

Devils Searching for Answers

New Jersey comes in at 28-27-2 and 7th in the Metropolitan. They’ve dropped 3 straight before the break, and even though they’re still in the fight for the Metro, their hopes are fading fast.

They average just 2.51 GF/G which is a clear gap compared to Buffalo’s 3.37. Their shooting percentage is 8.6%, which ranks near the bottom of the league, and that tells us they struggle to finish.

Nico Hischier leads the way with 19 goals and 42 points. He has 4 goals and 1 assist over the last 10 games. Cody Glass has 13 goals and 6 assists, but the overall depth hasn’t produced enough.

Now the big storyline of this game. Jack Hughes is expected back soon after the Olympic break, where he scored the OT winner for Team USA in the gold medal game and has since become synonymous with patriotism. 

Hughes has 12 goals and 36 points in 36 games, which is nearly a point per game. The Devils need that creativity because without it, they rely too much on grinding shifts and low-event hockey.

New Jersey’s power play sits at 20.8%. Sure, that’s slightly better than Buffalo’s, but their PK unit is 79.0% which puts them in the middle of the pack. They also take fewer PIM than Buffalo, which helps.

In the crease, the Devils have split time. Jacob Markstrom has a 3.20 GAA and an .882 SV% and Jake Allen has been better at 2.66 and .906. That difference is not small. If Allen starts, New Jersey’s outlook improves, but if Markstrom gets the nod, Buffalo’s shooters will test him early and often.

Over their last 10 games, the Devils are 4-6-0 and they are averaging just 2 GF/G in that stretch. That’s not enough against a team like Buffalo.

Key Matchups That Decide It

Starting with 5-on-5 scoring, Buffalo generates 27.6 SOG per game. New Jersey actually averages more at 29.3, but the problem is that the Devils don’t convert at the same rate.

Buffalo’s 12.2% shooting percentage is pretty strong, whereas New Jersey’s 8.6% is not. That gap jumps off the page in terms of efficiency in the zone.

Then look at momentum. The Sabres are 6-3-1 in their last 10 while the Devils are 4-6-0. Buffalo is scoring almost 2 more goals per game over that span. Of course, there was nearly a 3-week break since then, so anything can happen.

Special teams are close, so that likely cancels out for both sides. The difference comes down to finishing ability and current form.

There’s also the mental side we need to consider in a prediction like this. Buffalo won the last meeting 3-1 so they’ve proven they can handle this matchup. However, in the first meeting the Devils shut out the Sabres 5-0 and have America’s star coming into their home arena which will undoubtedly fill some seats, but also give the rest of the team a boost. Confidence matters in tight games.

New Jersey is coming off a long break and sometimes that helps, but sometimes it disrupts rhythm. Given their recent losing streak, it feels more like a team searching for answers rather than one ready to flip a switch.

Prediction and Best Bet

The bookmakers have this line tight for a reason. Home ice gives New Jersey a small edge in the market. But the numbers throughout the season tell a different story.

Buffalo simply scores more, and they’re undoubtedly finishing at a much higher rate. They are hotter over the last 10 games, and they already beat this team recently.

The Devils’ offense has been flat for the most part. Even if Jack Hughes returns smoking hot, there could be rust from the travel and not being in the mix with his team. 

For us, Buffalo’s 30-4-5 record when scoring 3+ goals is the stat that seals it. Against a Devils team allowing 3.07 GAA and struggling to score, the Sabres should find enough offense to get the job done.

• Prediction: Sabres 4, Devils 2
• Best Bet: Sabres moneyline at -104

Buffalo’s recent form, stronger scoring numbers, and edge in shooting percentage make them the sharper side. Don’t overthink this one, just ride the hotter team and take the value.