Avalanche vs Red Wings Prediction — Can Detroit Make a Statement at Home?

The Colorado Avalanche are heading to Detroit to kick off a high-stakes back-to-back against the surging Red Wings this afternoon. These 2 foes haven’t faced off this season yet, but the history between them is without a doubt rich — and right now, both teams are fighting for playoff positioning in stacked divisions.

The Avs are still one of the best in the league, but they’re limping into this game off a few tough losses. Detroit, on the other hand, had a couple of losses, but they’ve won 8 of their last 12 and are heating up at just the right time. This one’s shaping up to be tighter than the bookmakers are making it out to be.

Game Details, Odds & How to Watch

The puck drops at 12:00 PM ET on ABC for the first of the 2 games between these teams.

The Avalanche opened around -148 favorites and have been moved to -155, while the Red Wings are +130 home dogs. The total is set at 6.5 goals, with both sides at -110. The puck line shows Colorado -1.5 at +164, Detroit +1.5 at -198.

Those odds are surprising given how the Avs, clearly the best team in the NHL, have been playing as of late, and the Red Wings’ home record is 18-9- 2. It could go either way.

Momentum Is Shifting in Detroit’s Favor

Colorado has lost 4 of their last 5 and 8 of their last 12. In their last 2 losses, they gave up a combined 12 goals. Their defense, usually a strong point with Cale Makar leading the blue line, has sprung a leak. For a team that had only 2 regulation losses by January, that is alarming this late in the season.

Even Nathan MacKinnon’s 88-point tear hasn’t been enough to carry them over this last stretch. He’s still the most dangerous player on the ice, but when the supporting cast isn’t clicking, Colorado becomes beatable — especially away from home, where they’ve looked a bit sluggish.

Detroit, meanwhile, just played Washington to a shootout and is 3-1-1 in its last 5. They thumped the Jets 5-1, edged out the Leafs 2-1 in OT, and gave Minnesota a fight in a 4-3 OT loss. They’ve been playing structured hockey and proving they can hang with the best teams in the NHL.

At home, Detroit has that “grind-it-out” edge. Lucas Raymond, with 58 points, is making plays all over the ice, and Alex DeBrincat and his 30 goals are back to being a threat every time he touches the puck — in fact, in his last game against the Caps, he put up 2 goals and a helper. And Patrick Kane, fresh off making history as the all-time leading scorer among U.S.-born players, is bringing veteran calm in pressure moments.

Team Comparison — Not As Lopsided As It Looks

Sure, Colorado is dominant in a few key areas. They lead the league in goals scored with 202, but Detroit’s defense has quietly improved over the past few weeks. They’re allowing fewer than 3 GAA and play a tighter structure at home. They’ve only allowed 12 goals over their past 5 games compared to the Avs 22 goals. They’re also better than the Avs on the power play — 23.6% conversion, sitting at 7th in the NHL, compared to Colorado’s 15.7%, which ranks 29th in the league.

The Avs definitely take fewer penalties as they have 355 PIM, last in the league, but Detroit’s aggression is part of their identity. If they can stay somewhat disciplined for most of the game, they’ll have more chances with the man advantage — and that’s an area they’ve cashed in recently.

John Gibson has been the steadier netminder lately, and he’ll most likely get the nod for today’s game. He owns a 21-10-7 record with a .905 SV% and 2.61 GAA. Compare that to Colorado’s expected starter, Scott Wedgewood, who’s been decent with a .912 SV% but is coming off a rough game against Philly, where he let the puck in the net 7 times.

Why the Red Wings Can Win This Game

This game really comes down to timing. Despite having the best record in the NHL, Colorado has looked flat and vulnerable on this road trip. They’ve struggled to control pace and haven’t gotten much from their depth. Even their PK unit, which ranks 3rd overall at 83.9%, has been exposed recently, giving up a pair of power play goals over their last 3 games.

Detroit’s top 6 is absolutely rolling. Raymond, DeBrincat, Kane, and Dylan Larkin can match up offensively, especially if MacKinnon is kept somewhat in check.

The Wings are playing with urgency and trying to take the #1 spot in a packed Atlantic Division, and this is the kind of game that can swing momentum through February.

Prediction — Detroit Makes a Stand at Home

Detroit has already proven over and over that it can punch up. They’ve knocked off playoff teams in recent weeks and are skating with confidence. Meanwhile, Colorado is leaking defensively, struggling to put together full 60-minute efforts, and not looking like the same team that started this season.

The Wings are getting timely saves with Gibson, capitalizing on power plays, and playing with emotion. And with Kane and DeBrincat heating up right now, they have the weapons to go goal-for-goal with the Avs.

• Prediction: Red Wings 4, Avalanche 3 (OT)
• Best Bet: Red Wings +130 ML

There’s real value in this plus money play. Detroit is at home, in form, and catching Colorado in a slump. With +130 on the table, backing the Wings outright is the smarter play. The puck line is safer, sure — but this is a winnable game outright because it might go beyond 60 minutes.