Blue Jackets vs Blackhawks Prediction — Can Columbus Keep the Streak Alive?

The Columbus Blue Jackets hit the road tonight to take on the slumping Chicago Blackhawks in the first of 2 season matchups between these clubs. The puck drops at 8:30 PM EST, with Columbus looking to build on its red-hot form, while Chicago is doing everything it can to stop the bleeding after dropping 4 straight. As the only game on the NHL slate tonight, betting options are slim, but this one is worthwhile.

This is a meeting between 2 teams heading in very different directions. Columbus is on fire, having won 7 of its last 8 and is 7-3-0 over its last 10. The Blue Jackets are now 25-20-7, sitting 5th in the highly competitive Metro Division and climbing. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are reeling at 21-24-9 and have slipped to 6th in the Central and need a big turnaround if they’re going to stop the slide. They’re just 3-5-2 in their last 10 and have managed only a single win in their last 6 games.

Columbus enters as a modest road favorite at -142, with the total sitting at 6.5 goals and the under juiced slightly at -125.

Game Details and Matchup Notes

This is only the 1st of a back-to-back set for both teams before the Olympic break, which kicks off on February 6th, and it starts a 2-game mini-series between these clubs. Columbus heads to St. Louis tomorrow, while the Blackhawks stay home to host Columbus yet again next week.

Things haven’t always been pretty for Columbus in this matchup, as they have a 20-25-1-5 all-time road record in Chicago but have dominated the recent series, going 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings and winning 5 straight outright in regulation. The Jackets also swept the 2-game set against Chicago last season. 

They’re led by defenseman Zach Werenski, who is having an epic year. Werenski leads NHL defensemen in goals with 19 and has posted 57 points in 52 games. He’s not just padding numbers either — he’s been productive consistently, putting up points in 27 of his last 32 games. On top of his great season, in his career against the Blackhawks, he’s been just as effective, with 19 points in 18 games.

For Chicago, the big storyline continues to be the lack of getting the puck into the net. The Blackhawks are averaging just 2.65 GF/G and are coming off a stretch where they’ve put up 2+ goals just once in their last 5. Connor Bedard leads the team with 50 points, while Tyler Bertuzzi has a team-high 25 goals, but depth scoring is nearly non-existent beyond these 2. Over the last 10 games, the Blackhawks have averaged less than 2.0 GF/G. That’s not a sustainable number.

Spencer Knight is expected to get the start in the crease for Chicago. He’s been somewhat solid with a 2.59 GAA and a .910 SV%, but the problem is that he’s not getting much help. The Blackhawks’ PK unit is surprisingly elite as they rank 1st in the NHL at a staggering 85.6% — but they spend far too much time in the box, which doesn’t help the situation. They’ve racked up 529 PIMs, 9th-most in the league, and that’s a dangerous combo against a Columbus team that ranks just 8th in PP% since mid-January.

Columbus is expected to go with Jet Greaves, who has quietly been excellent. He’s won 4 straight starts with a 2.35 GAA and a .915 SV% over that same stretch. Overall, he holds a 16-12-6 record with a .908 SV%. Greaves gives Columbus steady goaltending and has been a key part of their recent run. Sure, Knight and Greaves show some similar numbers, but a netminder can only do so much, and the skaters need to light the lamp.

While the Jackets’ full-season special teams numbers don’t exactly jump off the page — they sit 19th in power play and 28th in penalty kill — they’ve been fairly sharp lately. Since January 11th, Columbus ranks 8th in PP% and 9th in team save percentage league-wide. That’s showing up on the scoreboard too, with Columbus outscoring opponents 30-21 in its last 8 games. They’re a well-balanced team that is playing effective hockey in all phases of the game.

Analysis, Matchup Trends, and X-Factors

There’s no doubt that momentum is clearly on Columbus’s side. Since mid-January, they’ve been winning games with pace and balance. They’ve scored 4+ goals in 5 of their last 8 games and are getting production up and down the lineup. Sean Monahan has goals in 3 of his last 4 games, Charlie Coyle has points in back-to-back outings and has reached both the 1,000-game milestone and his 200th career goal in the past week, and Kirill Marchenko has points in 13 of his last 17 games. These 3 stars are just the highlight of the team, but there’s more to this lineup than just them.

This depth scoring has taken pressure off Werenski and helped the Jackets become one of the league’s most balanced attacks during this hot stretch. Their defense is pitching in too, as Columbus leads the NHL in goals from defensemen and is 4th in total blueline points. That versatility makes them a tough matchup for just about any team, but especially so against a team like Chicago that lacks scoring depth and struggles to defend in transition.

The Blackhawks have relied heavily on Connor Bedard and Tyler Bertuzzi to generate offense, but when those 2 are held in check, the rest of the team simply hasn’t stepped up. The Hawks are 17-5-5 when scoring at 3+ goals, but lately, they haven’t come close to that mark in a while. They’ve been stuck under 2 GF/G in 4 of their last 5, including a 6-2 loss to the Pens just days ago.

Even when they defend well, the Hawks can’t seem to build and sustain leads. They haven’t scored the 1st goal in any of their last 5 games, while Columbus has opened the scoring in 7 of its last 8. That stat tells a lot about how teams come out of the gate. The momentum is real and carries deeper into the game.

Another key edge lies between the pipes. Knight may be the steadier name on paper, but Greaves has been every bit as reliable lately, and he’s playing behind a much hotter team, which only adds to the confidence. Elvis Merzlikins has also picked up some wins recently, but Greaves is the clear #1 right now, especially with his recent form.

Columbus also has one major schedule advantage as they’re one of the league’s best teams in back-to-back games, with a .639 points percentage. That sets them up nicely heading into this stretch of games before the Olympic break.

Prediction and Best Bet

There’s just too much working in Columbus’s favor to go the other way here. They’re playing much better hockey, scoring more goals, and getting more contributions from all over the lineup, including the 3rd and 4th lines. Their defense has been undoubtedly sharper, and their goaltending has been more reliable. Chicago, on the other hand, just can’t generate enough offense to keep up with just about any team, let alone a team firing on all cylinders.

Even if Knight stands on his head and shuts down 90% of the SOGs, the Jackets have shown they can grind out wins or take control early. With Werenski quarterbacking the power play and leading the rush, Columbus has an edge in both special teams and 5-on-5 play.

• Prediction: Blue Jackets 4, Blackhawks 2
• Best Bet: Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 at +160

Columbus is absolutely rolling right now, and the Blackhawks don’t have the scoring or momentum to keep this one even close. The Jackets have covered the puck line in 3 of their last 4 wins, which includes much better teams, and should have no trouble doing it again tonight. Back the hotter team with the better offense and defense to take care of business in regulation. It’s an easy plus money win.