Kings vs Sabres Prediction — Buffalo Looks to Stay Hot at Home

The Buffalo Sabres are taking to the ice in the KeyBank Center tonight, riding a 4-game win streak and playing some of their best hockey of the year. They’ll host the Los Angeles Kings, who are riding a 3-game win streak and trying to climb the Pacific Division standings and shake off a season of offensive struggles. This is just the first of 2 matchups this year between these teams, and Buffalo enters this matchup with a noticeable edge in both form and scoring.

The puck drops at 7 p.m. ET, and with the Sabres surging and the Kings scraping for consistency, this game has some serious betting value — if you know where to look.

Game Details and Betting Odds

The Sabres are holding a solid 30-17-5 record and sit among the top teams in the Atlantic Division. Their home record is nearly dominant at 16-6-3, and they’ve held their own at both ends of the ice recently. The Kings, at 22-16-13, have been surprisingly decent on the road with a 14-6-6 record, but that doesn’t tell the full story of how this team is doing.

Buffalo is listed as the slight favorite at -125 on the moneyline, while the Kings sit at +105. The puck line shows Buffalo -1.5 at +195 and LA +1.5 at -238. The over/under is set at 5.5, with the over juiced to -130.

Based on how these teams have been doing lately, bookmakers are expecting a tight game but giving Buffalo the edge thanks to their current momentum and home-ice advantage.

Breaking Down the Matchup

The Sabres have one thing that’s been working all season, regardless of who they’re up against — offense. They rank 5th in the league in goals scored with 176, well ahead of Los Angeles, which sits at the bottom with just 133. Assists paint a similar picture, with Buffalo racking up 298 compared to LA’s 222, and the difference in shooting percentage is not even close. Buffalo converts 12.3%  of the time, which is 4th in the NHL, while LA lags behind at 9.4%, dead last.

Tage Thompson has been leading the charge for Buffalo with 28 goals and 55 points, including 4 power-play goals and 178 SOGs. Over his last 10 games, he’s racked up 7 goals and 9 helpers. It goes without saying that he’s been red-hot. Supporting him is Josh Doan, who’s put up 17 goals and 19 assists, while Rasmus Dahlin leads the team with 31 assists, showing just how deep Buffalo’s scoring and playmaking threat is.

On the other bench, Adrian Kempe leads the Kings in scoring with 40 points, which includes 17 goals and 23 assists. Kevin Fiala is right behind him with 18 goals and 19 assists. But beyond that, LA struggles to have any sort of depth. They’ve averaged just 2.4 GF/G in their last 10, which won’t cut it against a team like Buffalo that’s been pouring in 4+ GF/G during the same span.

Defensively, LA deserves a bit of credit. They’ve given up only 138 goals this season, 3rd-fewest in the NHL. Goaltending has been somewhat of a bright spot with Darcy Kuemper leading the way at 13-9-2 with a 2.56 GAA and a .902 SV%. Not exactly Vicenza Trophy worthy, but it gets the wins. Anton Forsberg has also been serviceable in backup duty. Buffalo, meanwhile, has allowed 159 goals, good for 15th, but their recent play has shown some serious improvement. Alex Lyon owns a 12-6-2 record with a 2.70 GAA and a .911 SV%, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been equally reliable when he’s in the crease.

Special teams might be a swing factor in this game as well. Buffalo’s power play sits at 19.2%, which isn’t elite, but nonetheless, it’s still better than LA’s dismal 15.6%. The Sabres are also much stronger on the PK, where they rank 5th in the NHL at 83.6%, compared to LA’s 22nd-ranked PK at 77.8%. Add to that the fact that Buffalo draws more penalties, and it’s clear who has the advantage in special teams.

Recent form nudges everything a little further toward Buffalo as well. They’re 7-2-1 in their last 10, scoring 4.4 GF/G while only giving up 2.7 GAA. In their last 2 wins, they put up 7 on Toronto and 5 in a SO win over the Islanders. The Kings, though unbeaten in 3, haven’t looked nearly as dominant despite getting the wins. They beat Detroit 3-1, needed a shootout to get past the Blues, and barely edged out the Rangers. They’ve been grinding out wins, which will get points in the standings, but they are far from dominating.

If the Kings want a chance, they need this game to stay low-scoring. They’re 17-1-7 when scoring 3+ goals, so cracking that number is the big ticket to their magic formula. The problem is, Buffalo rarely lets teams get comfortable, especially on their home ice. Then add in the fact that the Sabres themselves are scoring in bunches. Unless Kuemper puts together a smoking hot performance and Buffalo’s top line strangely goes quiet, the Kings will struggle to keep pace.

Prediction and Best Bet

Buffalo is simply in better form right now, and they’re getting contributions from up and down the lineup. That goes a long way over the course of a 60-minute game. The Kings have been respectable defensively, but they can’t match Buffalo’s firepower, especially if the Sabres control the pace early. With how well Thompson is playing and the way Buffalo is executing on special teams, it’s hard to see LA finding a way to outscore them.

• Prediction: Sabres 4, Kings 2
• Best Bet: Sabres -125 ML

Buffalo’s scoring depth and recent hot streak make the moneyline the safest and smartest play. LA’s offense hasn’t proven it can keep up with teams like this, and unless the Kings drag this game into OT or get a stellar performance in between the pipes, the Sabres should be in control.

We’re staying away from the puck line on this bet because both teams are on a win streak. There’s a good chance this could go to OT, and that spread will be worthless. Take the safer bet and go with the moneyline.