Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights Prediction — Marner’s Return Adds Fuel to Friday Night Clash

Mitch Marner returns to Toronto, but this time he’s not wearing the familiar blue and white, but he’s wearing enemy colors. Tonight’s non-conference showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Vegas Golden Knights has all the makings of a thriller — not just because of playoff implications, but because one of the Leafs’ most beloved former stars is back on the ice at Scotiabank Arena, and everyone wants to see how this goes down.

Vegas took the first matchup of the season in an overtime classic earlier this month, and both teams are heating up as the playoff push intensifies. Emotions will undoubtedly run high, but points are on the line. What more could you want on a Friday night?

Game Info and Betting Lines

The Maple Leafs will host the Golden Knights at 7:00 p.m. ET in what will be the 2nd and final meeting of the regular season between these 2 clubs. Vegas won the first, 6-5 in OT, thanks to a two-goal performance from Pavel Dorofeyev.

As of now, the bookmakers have Vegas as the slight favorite, sitting around -125 on the moneyline with Toronto listed at +105. The total is set at 6.5 goals, and judging by their previous meeting — and of course each team’s recent form — it wouldn’t be shocking to see another high-scoring game.

Vegas will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back after taking a tough loss to the Bruins in Boston, and Toronto, meanwhile, comes in with a couple of days’ rest after falling 2-1 in overtime to Detroit.

Stats, Trends, and Who’s Got the Edge

Vegas leads the Pacific Division with a record of 24-13-12 and 60 points. They’ve been absolutely solid on the road, going 12-6-6 away from home while Toronto sits at 24-17-9, good for 57 points and 5th place in the Atlantic. The Atlantic, of course, is a bit tougher of a division. Their home record of 16-6-6 tells us they’ll be tough to beat in front of a packed Scotiabank Arena even as Marner takes to the ice again.

Offensively, both teams are nearly identical in goals per game, each scoring 3.33 PPG, but Vegas has the advantage on special teams, boasting a 4th-ranked power play that converts at an insane 26.5% rate. Toronto’s power play has lagged all season and ranks just 24th at a lowly 16.9%, and that’s a mismatch that could matter.

The Golden Knights have been the sharper team over their last 10 games, where they’ve gone 7-2-1 while scoring 4+ goals per game. Toronto has gone 5-2-3 in that same stretch but has had a few issues closing out games. The Leafs have also allowed 3+ goals in 6 of their last 9, and that includes surrendering 6 to this very same Vegas squad just a week ago.

Vegas plays cleaner, too. They average fewer PIM and are far better at controlling the pace. Toronto ranks near the bottom of the league in PIM and has been somewhat careless with the puck in recent games, something that Vegas is equipped to exploit.

On the goaltending front, things are fairly murky for both sides. Akira Schmid has been Vegas’ busiest netminder with a 15-5-2 record and a 2.52 GAA. But Vegas has used 4 different goalies this season, which could be an issue in back-to-back games. Toronto counters with Joseph Woll, who’s 11-5-1 with a 2.85 GAA. It’s safe to say that he’s been solid but not unbeatable.

Where Vegas really separates itself from the Leafs is in goal prevention. They’ve allowed just 146 goals this season, good for 10th in the NHL, whereas Toronto, by comparison, ranks 25th with 165 goals against. That’s a big red flag, especially going up against the likes of Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl, and, of course, Mitch Marner, who has 51 points in 48 games during his first season in Vegas.

In terms of individual stars, William Nylander continues to carry the Leafs with 48 points, and Auston Matthews is heating up with seven goals in his last ten. However, it’s worth noting that Nylander exited the last game against Vegas with a lower-body injury and hasn’t returned yet, and we’re not sure if tonight is the night he gets back out on the ice. Regardless, Vegas has had more consistent production across all lines. Eichel leads the team with 59 points, while Hertl and Marner are not far behind him. Vegas is also more efficient offensively, ranking fourth in shooting percentage.

The emotional factor shouldn’t be ignored either. Marner played 9 seasons in Toronto, cracked the 100-point mark last year, and was a face of the franchise before the team moved him in a sign-and-trade last summer. He will always be known as a Maple Leaf, and you can bet he’ll be the center of attention all night.

Prediction and Best Bet

This matchup feels like it just might be a repeat of the first meeting. Two dangerous offenses, one of them sharper on special teams and better defensively, and one of them struggling to keep pucks out of their net. That tilt undoubtedly favors Vegas, even with travel fatigue.

Toronto’s offense can keep them in games, but their inability to stay tight in their own zone, their ongoing issues on the power play, and the questions around Nylander are exactly the kind of weaknesses that Vegas feasts on. The Golden Knights have the experience, structure, and depth to handle Toronto’s top-heavy lineup.

We expect another close one, but this time Vegas doesn’t need OT to get it done.

• Prediction: Golden Knights 4, Maple Leafs 3
• Best Bet: Golden Knights Moneyline at -125

Vegas is more unquestionably disciplined, much deeper, and clicking at the right time. Even on the second leg of a back-to-back, they’ve shown they can deliver against some of the best offenses. Toronto has too many gaps defensively to trust in a game that will likely come down to execution in tight moments. It’s not a big plus money bet that we love to go after, but this game definitely has some excitement and intrigue baked into it.