Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Prediction – Can Allen Power Through, or Will the Broncos Shut the Door?
It’s all on the line this afternoon as the Buffalo Bills are heading to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos in the AFC Divisional Round. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM CT and, as with every NFL playoff game, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The Bills are coming in banged up, but nonetheless still battle-tested. The Broncos are rested, healthy, and ready to host their first home playoff game in a decade. Of all of the playoff games we’ve made predictions for this far, this one feels like a true playoff coin flip — except it’s not once you dig into it a bit more.
Game Info and Why It Matters
Clearly, this game is simply experience vs. momentum.
The Buffalo Bills and their 12-5 regular-season record come in on the heels of a gritty season. They’ve been leaning heavily on Josh Allen, who’s dealing with a laundry list of injuries from his foot, to his knee, and his finger — you name it, it’s got duct tape all over it trying to keep it together. But playoff football is nothing new to Buffalo, and this core has been here before, so they’re not intimidated one bit.
The Denver Broncos are coming in with their 14-3 record and are a completely different story. This is a breakthrough season nobody saw coming. Led by 2nd-year QB Bo Nix and backed by an absolutely loaded defense, they’re hosting their first playoff game in 10 years and coming off a bye. They definitely have the rest advantage, the altitude, and the healthier roster.
Buffalo took out Denver last year in the playoffs, and now the Broncos get their shot at payback, but this time around, they’ll do it at home.
Odds and Line Movement
Like most games, this line tells a story, but not what you’d expect.
Buffalo opened as a slight favorite, but the market has already flipped. Now, Denver is favored by 1.5 points at most books, with a total hovering right around 45.5 points. That swing is almost certainly tied to Allen’s injury concerns and Denver’s near-perfect injury report.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +1.5 −118 |
O 45.5 −112 |
−105 |
| Denver Broncos | −1.5 −102 |
U 45.5 −108 |
−115 |
Denver not being favored in the opening despite being the #1 seed is rare — especially since it’s their first home playoff game in years. But it just goes to show where these teams are at right now — Buffalo in survival mode, Denver in full-strength mode.
Matchup Breakdown and Key Analysis
The most obvious factor in this matchup is Josh Allen — the wild card.
He’s thrown for 3,668 yards, 25 TDs, 10 picks on the year, but he’s also taken a beating, and now he’s playing through injuries that could affect his mobility and grip when he’s launching rockets. If Allen can’t extend plays or protect the ball in cold weather, Buffalo’s offense could very easily stall.
And Buffalo needs that offense to get this one done. Despite being top-5 in total yards and first in rushing, a big thanks to James Cook’s 1,621-yard campaign, the Bills are staring down one of the best defenses in football.
This entire season, the Denver defense is no joke. They rank 2nd in total defense, 2nd against the run, and 3rd in points allowed. And most importantly, they lead the league with 68 sacks. That’s not the type of stats a quarterback with foot and finger issues wants to see.
If Denver forces Buffalo into a “normal offense” — you know, the kind that doesn’t involve Allen playing backyard football — they can win this game in the trenches, and that’s probably their game plan.
On the other side, Bo Nix has thrown for 3,931 yards and 25 TDs with 11 picks. He’s protected the ball fairly well and leaned on Courtland Sutton, who’s had a quiet but still a very productive 1,017-yard, 7-TD season. Denver’s offense isn’t nearly as explosive, but it’s balanced enough to do damage, and we see this most when the defense is giving them short fields.
Buffalo’s defense is beat up just like their offense. The injury report is crowded, with contributors all over the place. They’ve been solid overall as they’re 7th in yards allowed, 1st in pass defense, but then you see that they rank 28th in rushing defense, giving up 136.2 yards per game. If Denver feeds Jaleel McLaughlin and he gets the legs going, it will probably be a long day for the Bills.
And the icing on the cake is that Denver’s special teams and coaching staff have played smart, situational football all year. That edge matters in January.
Prediction — Broncos Get It Done at Home
The question coming into today’s game is simple — can a bruised Josh Allen survive 4 quarters against the NFL’s most active pass rush on the road?
Against any other team, this wouldn’t be much of a question, but against the Broncos, that feels like a tall order.
Yes, Allen is undoubtedly a warrior and has pulled out wild wins before, but he’s also turnover-prone when he’s trying to do too much. Denver doesn’t need to be dominant here — they just need to play disciplined football, win at the line, and take advantage of Buffalo’s injuries. Many times, that’s easier said than done.
Buffalo’s recent surge was nonetheless impressive, but now they’re on the road, beat up, and facing a team that hasn’t just been winning — they’ve been suffocating teams.
- Prediction: Broncos 23, Bills 20
- Best Bet: Denver Broncos -1.5
Don’t overthink this; this line has moved for a reason. Denver is the healthier, more rested team with the best defense left in the playoffs, and on their home turf, they should have no problem covering the short number.
We also like the UNDER at 45.5, especially with Allen not at 100% and both defenses capable of getting stops.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
