Bills vs Jaguars Prediction — Can Jacksonville Keep the Streak Alive Against Playoff-Tested Buffalo?
The Buffalo Bills are heading to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars in just what might be the most evenly matched game of the Wild Card round, at least on paper. Buffalo, fresh off a 12-win season, comes in with playoff scars and a QB who’s done everything but reach a Super Bowl, and they’re hoping to change that for him. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has quietly become one of the hottest teams in football in the second half and finished with a better record than Buffalo. This isn’t the Jaguars team that barely snuck into the playoffs like last year, no, this group is confident, rested, and winners of 8 straight games.
Sunday’s first game kicks off at noon from EverBank Stadium, and for Buffalo, history is not on their side. They haven’t won a road playoff game since 1992 and are 0-5 on the road under Sean McDermott. Jacksonville beat them at home back in the 2017 Wild Card round and now looks to repeat that with an even better QB under center this time around.
Game Details, Odds, and What’s at Stake
Buffalo opened on the market as a slight one-point favorite and remains just under a field goal by most bookmakers. However, that line is more about public perception than recent performance. The Bills may have the bigger name and the MVP-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen, but the Jaguars are 13-4, haven’t lost since mid-November, and are averaging nearly 34 PPG during their winning streak, and that can’t be ignored.
The over/under is set at 51.5, which simply underscores the scoring potential on both sides. Jacksonville has scored 30+ in 6 of its last 8 games, while the Bills have topped 30 in four of their last 5. Points should come, but it might not be as explosive as expected if either team’s defensive strengths show up; that’s a big question mark.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | −1.5 +102 |
O 51.5 −112 |
−112 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1.5 −122 |
U 51.5 −108 |
−108 |
This is Buffalo’s 7th straight trip to the postseason, but the pressure has never felt heavier. With the usual suspects of Mahomes, Burrow, and Lamar all missing from the AFC bracket, Allen is now the star people expect to carry his team to the Super Bowl. That’s a lot of weight, but for Jacksonville, the pressure is different. They’ve been doubted all year, and even now, they’re being treated like a lucky team catching breaks. Despite this, 13 wins and an AFC South title say otherwise.
Matchup Breakdown and Analysis
The Bills’ offense is 3rd in the league in total yards and ranks 4th in points per game. Their ground game, led by James Cook, has been nothing short of dominant. Cook ran for 1,621 yards this season and has been the key to Buffalo’s offense when he’s rolling. The Bills are 8-1 when he rushes for 100+ yards, but here’s the catch — Jacksonville hasn’t allowed a 75-yard rusher in weeks and owns the best run defense in football. They know how to shut that down. They’re physical up front and fast to the ball, and if they bottle up Cook, it forces Buffalo into being one-dimensional.
That’s where things can get the most interesting. Allen is, of course, spectacular, but he’s also prone to high-risk plays when forced to carry too much of the load. Buffalo’s 5 losses all came in games where Allen was sacked 3+ times and turned the ball over multiple times, and ironically, Jacksonville’s defense thrives on that chaos. They’ve racked up 32 sacks and are 2nd in the league in interceptions with 22. Allen will have to be his sharpest, and more importantly, protected well — something the Bills have struggled with against aggressive fronts.
Jacksonville’s offense is playing as well as anyone. Trevor Lawrence is undoubtedly locked in. Over the 8-game win streak, he’s thrown for 2,000+ yards, added 24 total TDs, and is protecting the football. He’s reading defenses quicker, making smarter decisions, and showing maturity in high-pressure situations, and now he has real weapons.
Parker Washington has changed the dynamic of the Jags’ offense. He’s totaled 497 yards over the last 6 games and has been Lawrence’s go-to guy during this incredible run. Washington works primarily out of the slot, a position where Buffalo is fairly thin. Injuries at LB and in the secondary open up the middle of the field, and that’s where we think Jacksonville will attack.
Travis Etienne Jr. has been less consistent, but we all know that he’s still a threat out of the backfield, both as a runner and receiver. If Buffalo’s front, which ranks 28th against the run, can’t contain him early, it will open everything else up for the Jags. The Bills have to play gap-sound football, or Etienne will make them pay dearly.
Defensively, Jacksonville does what great playoff teams do—stop the run, pressure the QB, and take the ball away. It’s a simple formula. They don’t rely on exotic blitzes. They believe in getting home with 4, and they often do. Josh Hines-Allen leads a physical front that will definitely test Buffalo’s offensive line all game long. Behind that line, they have Foyesade Oluokun, who anchors the middle with 143 tackles on the year, and safety Antonio Johnson has been a ballhawk with 5 interceptions, including 3 in the last 4 games. If Buffalo falls behind and Allen is forced to take deep shots, Johnson could be the one who flips the game.
Another massive edge for Jacksonville is its health. The Jaguars come into this game clean, with no major lingering injuries. The Bills are not so lucky in this area. LBs Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard were held out of practice early in the week, and TE Dalton Kincaid, who’s been Allen’s security blanket over the middle, is dealing with a knee injury. If he’s limited or unavailable, Buffalo’s already thin pass-catching unit gets even thinner, and they can’t afford to rely solely on the run.
And don’t forget special teams. Matt Prater, the Bills’ veteran kicker, is dealing with a quad issue. If he can’t go, which it’s looking more and more like he can’t, Matthew Wright — a former Jaguar himself — would step in. That’s not ideal in a game likely to come down to a few critical kicks, considering the spread is less than a field goal.
This feels like the classic “experience vs momentum” matchup. Buffalo has been here before as they’re a familiar face in the playoffs, and they’ve got the most talented player on the field, but the Jaguars are the team to beat right now. They’re well-balanced, healthy, and confident. They’ve beaten teams by blowout and by grinding it out, and they’ve scored in bunches and gotten stops when they’ve needed to.
Our Prediction and Best Bet
In a close matchup like this, the team that wins the line of scrimmage tends to come out on top and advance. Jacksonville has the advantage in both trenches as they can stop the run, can generate pressure without blitzing, and they have the more consistent offensive line — especially if Buffalo’s injuries don’t clear up in time for today’s game.
We all know that Josh Allen is capable of stealing any game, but he’s also been mistake-prone under pressure, especially this year. Jacksonville will make him earn every yard and wait for him to force a throw or take a hit. Over the last 2 months, there’s no team playing with more rhythm or confidence than the Jaguars, and they’ve been overlooked all season. They won’t be anymore.
We expect that Jacksonville wins a tight one and advances to the Divisional Round.
- Prediction: Jaguars 30, Bills 27
- Best Bet: Jaguars +1.5
We’re still in shock that the Jags have points. With this bet, you’re getting a 13-win team on an 8-game win streak, at home, and against a banged-up opponent. That’s pretty good value. The moneyline is playable too at near even odds, and if you’re backing the Jaguars to win outright, there’s no need to overthink this one, as they’ve been the better team, they’re healthier, and they match up well with Buffalo’s weaknesses.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
