Ole Miss vs Georgia Prediction — Can the Rebels Flip the Script in the Sugar Bowl?
Two 12-1 teams with one shot at the Fiesta Bowl. #6 Ole Miss and #3 Georgia meet again tonight in the CFP quarterfinal at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The Bulldogs won the regular season matchup, 43-35, but this isn’t a repeat. It’s a rematch with serious drama, off-field tension, and on-field firepower.
Game Details & Matchup Breakdown
This one kicks off tonight at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN from the Superdome. Georgia, sitting at 12-1, comes in as the #3 seed in the College Football Playoff, while Ole Miss, sitting at 12-1, rides in as the #6 seed.
It’s a high-stakes rematch from their October 18 meeting in Athens, where Ole Miss actually led in the 4th quarter before Georgia miraculously scored 17 straight to steal the win. That game left a bitter taste in the Rebels’ mouths, and they’ve been waiting for a shot at revenge. This is their chance.
But this isn’t the same Ole Miss team we’ve seen. Head coach Lane Kiffin bolted for LSU after the regular season, leaving defensive coordinator Pete Golding to lead the playoff run, and several assistant coaches are also headed to LSU — yet they’re still on the Rebels’ sidelines for this game. So it goes without saying that this could be interesting.
On the Georgia side, Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs are back in the Sugar Bowl with a shot at redemption, too — just for their own unique and different reasons. Last year’s Sugar Bowl trip was marred by tragedy and distraction. This year, they’re locked in, motivated, and ready to knock out an old foe.
Odds, Line Movement, and Public Sentiment
Georgia opened as a 6.5-point favorite and currently sits at -6, with the total at 55.5. Moneyline odds are stacked with Georgia at -245 and Ole Miss at +200.
The bookmakers favor Georgia, and for good reason — they’ve been more balanced, more consistent, and come into the game with 5 straight wins by double digits, including a 28-7 beatdown of Alabama. If that doesn’t show how determined they are, we don’t know what does.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss Rebels | +6 +112 |
O 55.5 −112 |
+200 |
| Georgia Bulldogs | −6 −108 |
U 55.5 −108 |
−245 |
Ole Miss is also on a 5-game win streak, and it hasn’t exactly been a cupcake run. They’ve taken down Florida, Mississippi State, and Tulane by at least 10 points each. These teams are decent, but still lack the firepower that Alabama brought.
The spread hasn’t budged much, but there’s some quiet interest in Ole Miss covering such a wide spread. The total has dropped from 56.5 to 55.5, which tells us that bettors are expecting a more controlled, maybe even grind-it-out type of game, though we think that’s a stretch.
Analysis — Why This One’s Not a Runback of October
Ole Miss averages 37.5 PPG, ranking 18th nationally, and they rack up 498 total yards per game, with 312.4 coming through the air. That’s 3rd-best in the country.
At the heart of the offense is QB Trinidad Chambliss, a dual-threat weapon who’s racked up 3,298 passing yards and 19 TDs, with another 8 TDs with his legs. He spreads it around to senior Harrison Wallace III, who has 738 yards, and relies on sophomore Kewan Lacy and his 1,366 yards and 21 TDs to pound the rock. He has the tools for whatever type of play they cook up.
Georgia, by contrast, is a little more methodical. Gunner Stockton has been steady with 2,691 yards and 23 TDs, and the best part is that he doesn’t make many mistakes — just 5 INTs all year. Nate Frazier chips in with 861 yards on the ground, giving them a good mix of plays. The Bulldogs average 31.9 PPG, a respectable number but not quite the same level of pop that Ole Miss comes in with.
Defense is really where Georgia’s strength shows up. They allow just 15.9 PPG — 12th in the country — and 284.5 YPG, good for 7th nationally. Their rush defense is elite, giving up only 79.2 yards per game.
Ole Miss isn’t bad defensively as they’ve allowed just 19.3 points per game, but they rank 76th in total yards allowed and 109th in rush yards allowed. That could be a problem against a balanced Georgia offense that can keep the defense on the field for long stretches.
The red zone and turnovers could be interesting in this New Year’s showdown. Ole Miss and Georgia are neck and neck in 3rd down efficiency — both at 45% — but the Rebels have a slight edge in turnovers forced. They’ve picked off 8 passes; Georgia’s got 9.
But here’s the thing that stands out the most to us — Ole Miss can’t afford to settle for field goals. Georgia rarely gives up long drives. If Chambliss and company can’t finish in the red zone, it’ll be a long night as they chip away 3 points at a time.
Prediction — Rebels Ride the Chaos to an Upset
This is a weird game between the coaching staff drama and a revenge narrative. With a new head coach, there’s a Kiffin-sized shadow over the program. And yet, Ole Miss seems looser, more emotionally charged, and just as talented in the right places to make this interesting.
They’ve got the better quarterback in Chambliss. They’ve got an RB who can control tempo and break through for chunk plays in Lacy. They’ve already seen Georgia’s best shot and nearly pulled it off — in Athens, no less.
Georgia didn’t punt once in the 1st meeting, but that won’t happen again. Golding’s defense will adjust, and Chambliss has grown since October. Plus, the Rebels’ offense is clicking with 41, 38, 34, and 49 points in their last 4 games.
This isn’t about stats — it’s about emotion and edge. Georgia is cleaner, but Ole Miss is hungrier. Expect some early nerves from both sides, but once the game settles, the Rebels’ playmaking takes over.
- Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Georgia 30
- Best Bet: Ole Miss +6
The line is giving too much respect to Georgia based on the past, but you really have to see through that, better yet, take advantage of that. Ole Miss is not overmatched, and they’ve got the firepower to win outright. But if you’re not ready to take the moneyline at +200 and scared of making money, +6 gives you enough room to feel good about a tight game.
Another bet we would take a closer look at is the over on 55.5 points. Both teams can score. Ole Miss has cleared 34 points in 4 straight. Georgia has scored 28+ in 5 straight. The last game hit 78, and there’s no reason to expect a defensive slugfest here. Take the over with confidence.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
