Lions vs Vikings Prediction — Detroit’s Playoff Push Meets Minnesota’s Quarterback Crisis
Surprisingly enough, the Detroit Lions are in a must-win situation as they head to Minneapolis today to face the Minnesota Vikings in the second of the Christmas Day games. With an 8-7 record, Detroit is just hanging by a thread in the NFC playoff picture, and a loss here knocks them out completely. This is a team that everyone thought was an automatic playoff team at the beginning of the season. The Vikings, on the other hand, are sitting at 7-8, aren’t technically eliminated, but their postseason hopes are even slimmer — and quarterback problems aren’t helping their situation at all.
This game isn’t just about standings; instead, it’s about survival for Detroit and evaluation for Minnesota.
Game Details and Injury Impact
As the second game of the NFL Christmas Day games, kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Lions are 3-4 on the road, and the Vikings are just 2-4 at home. Nobody can deny that it’s been an uneven ride for both teams, but Detroit comes in with just a bit more on the line and a major edge at the most important position.
Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy is dealing with a hand injury and didn’t practice early in the week. Though X-rays were negative for anything major, there’s little optimism he’ll be ready on a short turnaround. That opens the door for Max Brosmer to start, and that’s a huge concern for Minnesota but welcomed news for the Lions. Brosmer threw 4 picks in his only start against Seattle earlier this year and averaged just 4.2 yards per attempt. That is not a good place to be for a team that is not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.
Detroit QB Jared Goff has been healthy and steady, throwing for 4,000+ yards with 32 TDs and only 5 INTs. He’s also operating behind one of the league’s best O-lines. Wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with a lingering knee injury, but he leads the team in all major receiving categories. Even if he’s limited, his presence changes how defenses draw up their schematics to approach this offense.
Betting Odds and Market Movement
The Lions opened as 3.5-point favorites, but the line has quickly moved to -6 with the McCarthy news that he is expected to miss the game. The total has dropped as well, going from 48.5 to 44.5, which goes to show the betting market’s lack of confidence in Minnesota’s ability to put up any significant points with Brosmer under center.
Detroit is now a -250 favorite on the moneyline, while Minnesota sits at +205. The betting movement is clear, whether from the sharps or the public — if McCarthy can’t go, the Lions have the upper hand, and bettors are reacting accordingly.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | −6 −112 |
O 44.5 −105 |
−250 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +6 −108 |
U 44.5 −115 |
+205 |
Matchup Breakdown and Game Analysis
Detroit is coming into today’s game ranked 2nd in the NFL in PPG, averaging 30.1. They’re 3rd in both total offense and passing yards per game, showing just how dangerous this unit can be when everything’s clicking. Goff is coming off a 3-touchdown game against Dallas, and the Lions have scored 30+ points in 3 of their last 5 games.
Their offensive success isn’t just through the air, as their ground game is just as daunting. Jahmyr Gibbs has racked up 1,102 rushing yards and 13 TDs, bringing explosion and versatility out of the backfield. Detroit’s 123.4 rushing yards per game rank 12th in the league.
The Vikings, on the other hand, are struggling to move the ball, and that was with a better QB. They’re averaging just 20.3 PPG and rank 28th in total yards, but that number drops to 29th when looking at passing yards. Without McCarthy calling the shots, it’s hard to envision Minnesota keeping pace with a Lions offense that can turn out some serious yards. Brosmer simply doesn’t have the tools right now to push the ball downfield effectively, and if Jordan Mason can’t go either, the run game may fall entirely on the shoulders of Aaron Jones, who hasn’t been the same since returning to the field from injury. Of course, he’s one of the best, but he’s still finding his way back.
Minnesota’s saving grace has been its defense. They allow just 21.3 PPG and rank in the top 5 in total defense and passing defense. Linebacker Blake Cashman has been everywhere, leading the team with 120 tackles, and the pass rush has also quietly done its job, totaling 40 sacks, which is just one less than Detroit. But they’ll have their hands full with a Lions offensive line that’s been one of the toughest to beat all season.
If the Vikings are going to keep this game relatively close, it will have to be a low-scoring affair driven by defense, but that’s asking a lot when their own offense is likely to struggle sustaining drives.
Detroit’s defense, while not what most will call elite, is serviceable and opportunistic. They’re 7th in the league in picks with 12 and allow just under 25 PPG. The matchup sets up perfectly for them to attack a young QB in Brosmer, who’s shown questionable decision-making when under pressure.
On the injury front, Eric Wilson, Minnesota’s sack leader with 6.5, is listed as questionable, and if he can’t go, the Lions will have more time to develop deep routes and create space underneath for Gibbs and David Montgomery. The options become seemingly endless.
Minnesota’s last 3 wins have come against the Giants, Cowboys, and Commanders — none of whom are known for their defensive dominance this year, so take those wins how you will, but Detroit is without a doubt a much tougher test. The Vikings have scored 13 or fewer points in 3 of their last 5 games. That’s not going to cut it against one of the league’s highest-scoring teams.
Prediction and Best Bet
Everything on both sides of the ball points toward Detroit handling business here. The Lions are desperate, experienced, and healthy where it matters most — especially at quarterback. The Vikings are extremely limited, and with a 3rd-stringer under center, it’s hard to imagine they’ll keep pace unless Detroit self-destructs, which isn’t out of the realm of possibilities, but still slim.
The defense might keep things interesting early, but the Lions should pull away in the 2nd half, if not earlier. We expect a clean, efficient game from Goff, a heavy dose of Gibbs and Montgomery, and enough stops from the defense to keep Minnesota in check.
- Final score: Lions 27, Vikings 17
- Best Bet: Lions -6
Minnesota’s quarterback issues are just too much to overcome, and Detroit knows it has no margin for error. They should win this by at least a touchdown, and that’s being generous to the Vikings.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
