Steelers vs Lions Prediction — Rodgers Returns to Detroit, but Lions Hold the Edge

A pair of 8-6 playoff hopefuls are going head-to-head this afternoon at Ford Field as the Pittsburgh Steelers head to Detroit to face the Lions. Both teams are still firmly in the postseason race, but Detroit’s high-powered offense, home-field advantage, and Pittsburgh’s defensive injuries definitely have a bigger role in the narrative heading into this one.

Game Info and Odds

This game kicks off at 4:25 PM EST and is nationally televised on CBS. Detroit opened as a 6.5-point favorite, and the line has held fairly steady at Lions -7, with the total sitting at an insane 51.5.

The Steelers have quietly covered in 8 of their 14 games this season, while the Lions are also even at 8-6 ATS. However, the context really matters in this one as Detroit is 4-3 ATS at home, while Pittsburgh is 4-3 ATS on the road.

The total has gone over in 4 of the Lions’ last 6, while the Steelers tend to play in lower-scoring games — the under is 8-6 in their contests this year. Given that this game will be played in the coziness of a dome, it’s easy to see why the total is way up there for these 2 high powered offenses.

Team Comparison and Matchup Breakdown

The contrast between these two teams couldn’t be more stark.

Detroit ranks 1st in scoring offense with a whopping 30.6 PPG, while Pittsburgh sits just 13th at 24.0 PPG. On the defensive end of the field, both teams are middle of the pack, though the Steelers rank 18th in scoring defense, allowing 23.3 PPG.

Jared Goff is having one of the best seasons of his career. He’s currently sitting 3rd in the league in passing yards at 3,672 and 2nd in TD passes with 29 to his name, while tossing just 5 picks. That’s a solid ratio. His connection with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has 1,140 yards and 11 TDs, has made Detroit’s offense incredibly tough to defend — especially off play-action, which works so well because of Jahmyr Gibbs’ explosiveness. Gibbs is averaging 5.5 YPC and has 1,594 yards from scrimmage with 13 TDs. That trio of stars keeps defenses on their toes.

Pittsburgh’s offense, meanwhile, remains somewhat inconsistent despite a few good games. Aaron Rodgers has turned it on over the last two weeks with 75% completions, 508 yards, and 3 TDs, but the run game still leaves a lot to be desired. Jaylen Warren leads with just 685 rushing yards, and the offensive line has struggled to consistently open holes. It’s tough to take one-dimensional teams seriously, but somehow these Steelers are still at the top of the AFC North.

One bright spot helping this team get to where it is is Kenneth Gainwell, who’s emerging as a key pass-catching back and leads the team in receptions. His presence helps Pittsburgh extend drives — something they’ll need to keep Goff off the field if they want a chance at the win.

But the real concern for the Steelers is defense. They rank 28th in total yards allowed and are extremely vulnerable through the air, where they’re 27th in pass defense. And they’ll most likely be without T.J. Watt, which is massive — Pittsburgh is just 2-11 without him in the lineup during his career. He didn’t participate in practice, which leads us to believe he’ll sit out for another week.

Detroit, meanwhile, has some serious issues in the secondary. They’ll be missing Brian Branch and likely Kerby Joseph, while several corners are banged up or out. But Pittsburgh’s passing game hasn’t proven it can consistently capitalize, so that might be the silver lining for the Lions.

What Recent Form Tells Us

Both teams are a bit shaky over their last 5 games. Pittsburgh comes in with back-to-back wins over Miami and Baltimore, while Detroit lost a shootout to the Rams last week after dropping 44 points in a win over Dallas the week before.

A key trend we’re seeing is that the Lions haven’t lost back-to-back regular-season games in 59 straight contests. That’s the longest active streak in the NFL, and it shows their ability to bounce back from adversity.

Also, Detroit is 5-0 at home in games following a loss since the start of last season, and on top of that, they’re averaging 33 points per game in those spots.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are coming off a short week and MNF, a spot where they’ve historically played well, as they’re 42-29-1 in games following Monday nights. But this team is missing key pieces on defense and has been wildly inconsistent on both sides of the ball.

Prediction — Lions Pull Away in the Second Half

With the Steelers missing T.J. Watt and thin on the edge, this is a nightmare matchup against a balanced Detroit offense. Goff should have plenty of time in the pocket, and Detroit’s offensive line can neutralize Pittsburgh’s depleted pass rush.

Rodgers is still capable of keeping it close for the better part of the game, especially if Gainwell and Metcalf can make some plays downfield. But Detroit simply has too many weapons, and they’re playing for playoff seeding in the NFC. All of that is why the bookmakers have this total so high.

We expect St. Brown and Gibbs to carve up the Steelers’ 28th-ranked defense. Detroit’s offense has been rolling, and the Steelers won’t be able to keep up in a shootout. 

• Prediction: Lions 34, Steelers 24
• Best Bet: Lions -7

There’s too much working against Pittsburgh here, and the price of the spread makes this worth it. The Lions have been money at home off a loss, and they haven’t lost back-to-back games in years. With Watt out and Detroit’s offense at full strength, the number is justified. Lay the 7 and cash the check.  No matter how this pans out, it’s going to be a great game either way.