Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Philadelphia Eagles head to MetLife Stadium tonight to take on the New York Giants for Thursday Night Football in an NFC East matchup with plenty of intrigue. Kickoff is set for 7:15 PM ET, and like all TNF games, the game will be broadcast on Prime Video.

Philadelphia, coming off its first loss of the season, comes into tonight with a 4-1 record and 2-0 on the road. New York is floundering at 1-4, and rookie QB Jaxson Dart is expected to make his 4rd career start. The Eagles are currently listed as 7-point road favorites with the over/under set at 40.5 total points. On the moneyline, Philly sits at -395, while the Giants are big underdogs at +310.

Given how these two teams have played this season, these odds seem about right.

Game Breakdown: Eagles Offense Needs to Wake Up

For a team absolutely loaded with offensive stars like Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and A.J. Brown, it’s surprising the Eagles rank just 30th in total offense and 31st in passing YPG. Hurts has thrown for 889 yards and 7 TDs, which is in the middle of the pack, but hasn’t looked nearly as explosive under first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo. The silver lining is that he’s been undoubtedly efficient as he hasn’t thrown a single interception yet this season, either. The offensive unit has also been hit by injury — most recently to Pro Bowl guard Landon Dickerson, who will miss this game due to an ankle injury.

That said, they’re still finding ways to put up points. They’re averaging 25.0 per game, which is good for 13th in the league. Barkley, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, has been relatively quiet by his standards as he’s logged just 267 yards on 83 carries through the first 5 games. Even more puzzling is that he had only 6 touches in last week’s loss to the Broncos.

For what it’s worth, that’s likely to change this week. Barkley torched the Giants for 176 yards and a TD in their last meeting, and there’s no reason not to lean on him again — especially against a Giants defense that ranks 26th against the run, allowing 140 rushing YPG.

Giants Struggling to Stay Afloat

New York’s lone win came in Week 4 against the Chargers, but they’ve dropped every other game — including last week’s 26-14 loss to the Saints, where they turned the ball over 5 times. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart had a rough outing, tossing 2 interceptions and losing a fumble.

Sure, he’s shown flashes of brilliance, but with Malik Nabers on IR and limited help in the passing game, Dart is under constant pressure to do too much. He’s thrown for 786 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs this year, and the Giants’ offense is generating just 17.4 PPG, which ranks 28th in the NFL. It’s not a good place to be going up against the Eagles.

The ground game is averaging 117 YPG, mostly thanks to Cam Skattebo, who’s carried the load during Tyrone Tracy’s 2-game absence. Tracy is expected to return this week, but the rotation has lacked any amount of consistency. Skattebo also fumbled last week in a critical moment, so we have our hesitations with him.

All is not lost as New York’s defense has some bright spots — notably Brian Burns with 5 sacks and Bobby Okereke, who leads the team with 48 tackles — but the unit is giving up a whopping 25.4 PPG and has struggled to get off the field. Opponents are converting on third down 40+% of the time. They’ve also allowed 377.2 YPG, which ranks in the bottom third of the league.

Matchup to Watch — Barkley vs Giants Run Defense

The most glaring mismatch we see heading into tonight is the Eagles’ run game — particularly Barkley — going up against a Giants defense that hasn’t been able to stop anything on the ground. Given that Barkley gashed them last year and they’ve already allowed several 100-yard rushers this season, this could be a massive bounce-back game for him, and you can bet he’s looking forward to it.

The Eagles should look to establish the run early, especially with Hurts’ efficiency dipping in recent weeks. Philly’s also averaging 126.8 rushing YPG, which ranks 15th in the league, and the game script will most likely favor a ground-heavy approach.

Another key area to watch is turnovers. The Giants are dead last in turnover differential and have just 3 interceptions on the season. If Philly plays clean football, and they tend to do so, they’ll undoubtedly control time of possession and grind this one out.

Prediction — Eagles Too Balanced for Giants to Handle

The Giants are simply overmatched in this one, and it’s not particularly close. They’re starting a young QB with limited weapons at his disposal, and their defense has struggled against both the run and the pass. Philly has issues of its own, especially on offense, but they’ve got plenty more firepower, better coaching, and far more experience.

We expect Barkley to get heavily involved, both to send a message to his old team and to take pressure off Hurts. He has what it takes, he just needs to get fired up and unleashed. The Eagles have shown they can win ugly, and this could be another one of those games — but with their far superior roster, they should cover the number and move to 5-1.

• Eagles vs Giants Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 16
• Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -7

The Eagles are 2-0 on the road and facing a team that just committed 5 turnovers. Even with some offensive struggles, Philly should win by double digits and put the spread to bed.

If you’re looking for a player prop bet, we really like Barkley OVER 86.5 at -113. Barkley will get the ball early and often against his old team, and New York’s run defense likely won’t have an answer. On top of that, he’s looking for a game to use as a launching pad, and this has all of the hallmarks of being that game.