UFC 320 Preview: Top Underdog DFS Picks for Saturday, October 4

UFC 320 is shaping up to be one of the biggest cards of the year. Headlined by two championship fights and a lightweight brawl between two title contenders. Let’s jump into DFS early this week with a sportsbook best bets article to follow later in the week once prop and round lines are released!

In the main event, Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev run it back in a rematch for the light heavyweight title. Social media has been slowly building this rematch up, showing some bad blood between these two.

The co-main event sees Cory Sandhagen finally getting his shot to touch gold against perhaps the best bantamweight of all time in Merab Dvalishvili. In the 3rd fight, Jiri Prochazka takes on Khalil Rountree Jr in a class of light heavyweight contenders.

As I expect, the winner should be in line for their last title shot between the winner of the main event. Whoever loses between Prochazka and Rountree, I have a hard time believing will ever get another title shot again.

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Main Event: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev 2 (Light Heavyweight Title)

When Pereira first moved up to light heavyweight, many questioned whether his knockout power would carry over from middleweight, especially against bigger opposition. He answered those questions quickly, winning five straight, four by KO/TKO.

Against Ankalaev, however, he met an opponent who thrives on discipline and control with calculated striking. Ankalaev has impressive defense, and he has the ability to drag opponents into grinding clinch exchanges.

Pereira has a tough rematch here, and while I usually side with the fighter to get payback, my early week lean sees Ankalaev retaining the belt. I don’t see him getting caught with a KO shot, and I also don’t believe Pereira offers much on the ground here. As an early lean, I would take Ankalaev in a 2-leg parlay or double chance Decision/KO.

Co-Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen (Bantamweight Title)

Merab has become one of the most relentless fighters on the UFC roster. Quickly becoming the best bantamweight of all time. His wrestling numbers are staggering, hitting double-digit takedown attempts in nearly every fight, hitting 5+ takedowns in numerous bouts. He has the best cardio and gas tank on the entire UFC roster, and some even claim his cardio gets better as the rounds and the fight progresses.

He’s not a one-shot finisher, but his pace adds up over 25 minutes and can easily translate into huge DFS scores. Cory Sandhagen, though, is not a typical opponent. His height and reach create problems for wrestlers, and his striking variety makes him difficult to time. From spinning elbows to flying knees, Sandhagen could present Merab some problems on the feet.

While typing that out, I must second-guess, I believe that considering we just watched what Merab did to Sean O’Malley, putting him through the ringer twice. Corey has a much more well-rounded all-around game than O’Malley, and I do believe he can challenge Merab’s cardio, grappling/scrambling, and he could do some damage on the feet.

I cannot bet against Merab, and I will certainly find a way to put him into a 2-leg parlay with something else I trust as more props/round lines open later in the week. Dogs do win a lot of main events, but I believe we have two “And Stills” coming this weekend.

Underdog DFS Slips

Slip 1: (2.49x Payout)

• Abus Magomedov LOWER 1.5 takedowns 
• Jiri Prochazka HIGHER 39.5 significant strikes

Abus Magomedov has been an inconsistent wrestler with his time in the UFC and it has everything to do with his opponents. In 6 UFC fights he has cashed this line in 2, vs Brunno Ferreira and Warlley Alves, two quite frankly, sub-par fighters.

Now we are asking him to take down one of the strongest and most physically imposing fighters in the division? In 8 UFC fights no one has taken Pyfer down twice. I do think we will see takedown attempts in the gameplan of Abus as he will probably not want to strike with Pyfer. The longer this fight goes the higher risk it is of losing. I expect Pyfer to end this one before he gets into trouble.

Jiri Prochazka is pure chaos inside the cage, and this is a risky one as you just never know how long a Jiri fight will last. In 37 career MMA fights, 35 of them have ended with a finish, 1 decision, and 1 draw.
Jiri looks to create exchanges, and those exchanges almost always result in big striking numbers. He has cashed this line in 4 of his last 6 fights, and in the two he did not, he was knocked out by Alex Pereira.
Even in shorter fights that have ended in the 2nd round, Jiri tends to cash 40 significant strikes because of his non-stop forward pressure and willingness to brawl it out.

Slip 2: (7.8x Payout)

• Edmen Shahbazyan HIGHER 23.5 significant strikes 
• Jiri Prochazka HIGHER 0.5 2nd-round finish

This is where things get riskier but more rewarding. Shahbazyan must avoid the sub and danger on the ground game, but if he does, he should knock out Andre Muniz. I love this play because I expect the vet Muniz to last long enough to take some damage from Edmen.

Edmen can be hard to trust sometimes, but 23.5 significant strikes is a hittable number. He has cashed this in 5 of his last 6 fights, even landing 27 in a first-round KO of AJ Dobson. He also put up 48 in a submission loss to Gerald Meerschaert, so even in a loss, he has a path to get there.

The pairing of Jiri gives this all the value. In 7 UFC fights, Jiri has 5 2nd-round finishes. I believe these two will test each other’s range and take calculated risks in round 1. Round 2 is where I think Jiri will turn it on, and these two will get into deeper exchanges.

Jiri is hungry to get back to the belt, and though I like Rountree, he has been hittable in every fight, and he can be susceptible to a KO shot from Jiri’s unorthodox power. Jiri has only faltered to the top of the class in Pereira, and I just don’t think Rountree will ever reach that level.