Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming into tonight’s matchup against the Cincinnati Reds on a 3-game win streak, and while that sounds great for the Pirates, the situation is very different for the 2 clubs. Pittsburgh, sitting at 68-89, is already eliminated from playoff contention, while the Reds at 80-77 are clinging to postseason hopes. They’re only a single game behind the Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot, and every inning matters as the regular season winds down. We’re just days away from the postseason, and this game undoubtedly has some serious playoff implications.

Game Details

The series continues at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, which is a hitter-friendly park where the ball carries well. On the mound, two flame-throwing RHPs are facing off — rookie phenom Paul Skenes for the Pirates and Hunter Greene for the Reds. With your season nearly on the line, Skenes is the last SP any team would want to face.

Skenes has been outstanding this year with an insane 2.03 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 209 Ks in 181.2 innings of work. He’s held opposing hitters to a .202 OBA, showing elite command for a rookie. That said, September has been somewhat of a grind for him. In his last outing against the Cubs, he lasted just 3.2 innings and gave up 3 earned runs. Fatigue could be setting in after such a heavy first-year workload, and nearly every pitcher, even some of the most experienced, goes through a few slumps.

Greene, meanwhile, enters at 7-4 with a 2.74 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00. He has fanned 125 batters in just over 101 innings. On top of that, his last start was one of his best, which was a complete-game shutout against the Cubs, where he allowed just one hit and struck out 9. That performance showed exactly why the Reds trust him in this must-win spot. They might not be too happy going against Skenes, but at least they have a top-caliber pitcher to counter him.

Betting Odds

The Reds are slight favorites at home. The moneyline sits at Cincinnati -119, with the Pirates close behind at -102. The run line favors Cincinnati at +1.5, priced at -213, while Pittsburgh sits at -1.5 with a +172.

To no one’s surprise, bookmakers are expecting a low-scoring game, with the over/under set at 7 runs. The over is priced at -102, while the under is -119. Both of these pitchers have the ability to go deep into a game and keep runners off the bases.

Analysis

As you’d expect, this game sets up as a classic pitcher’s duel.

Both Skenes and Greene have the ability to absolutely dominate, but the context really matters. The Pirates are one of the worst offensive teams in the league. They rank just 28th in batting average and dead last in home runs. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are their main sources of production, but the lineup as a whole lacks any consistency to remain competitive.

Cincinnati doesn’t exactly boast a powerhouse lineup either, but they have a little more balance. Elly De La Cruz has been their most consistent hitter, leading the team in average and RBI. Spencer Steer adds some pop with 21 homers, and this Reds offense is capable of manufacturing runs when it matters, even if it’s just playing small ball.

From a team perspective, Pittsburgh has actually been fairly sharp as of late. They’ve won 3 straight, including Tuesday’s 4-2 series-opening win over the Reds. Their pitching staff ranks in the top 10 in ERA, but their weak offense keeps them from sustaining momentum and actually closing out games. Cincinnati, on the other hand, had won 4 in a row before dropping that game and has far more urgency. The Reds have been strong at home, and with a playoff berth on the line, we’re expecting them to come out with intensity.

The park factor can’t be ignored. Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in baseball, but with Skenes and Greene on the bump, scoring chances will most likely be limited. That’s why the total is set so low at 7, and with both pitchers locked in, the under has value.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Pirates are playing loose and confident, which is respectable, but motivation tilts this matchup heavily toward Cincinnati. Greene’s recent dominance and the Reds’ postseason chase clearly outweighs Pittsburgh’s hot streak.

You can expect a close game, but in the end, Cincinnati should edge out the win in front of their home crowd.

• Reds vs Pirates Score Prediction: Reds 3, Pirates 2
• Best Bet: Take the Cincinnati Reds moneyline at -119

With Greene in top form and the Reds desperate for a win, they’re the smarter side. If you’re looking for a little more added value, the under 7 runs priced around -119 is also worth consideration, given the pitching matchup and recent form of both starters. It’ll be a grudge match, but there’s money to be made.