Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off with an AFC East matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium for TNF. Miami, sitting at 0-2, is desperate to stop the bleeding after a rough start, while Buffalo, undefeated at 2-0, looks to keep rolling.

The Dolphins haven’t had much success in Buffalo lately, losing 5 straight there and 9 of the last 10 overall against the Bills. With their backs against the wall and playing in a primetime slot, the question is — Can Miami even make this a game?

Game Details and Betting Odds

This is no small matchup as divisional games count extra when it comes to playoff tiebreakers and seeding. With TNF featuring mostly divisional rivalries this season, the stakes are raised even more in the middle of the week. The Dolphins sit at the bottom of the division, and another loss here would dig them a deep hole before October even hits. Not many teams claw their way back after a 0-2 start, and a 0-3 start is nearly unheard of. In fact, since 1990, only 4 teams have made the playoffs after a 0-3 start.

Bookmakers aren’t giving Miami much of a chance, either. The Buffalo Bills opened as 10.5-point favorites, and the line quickly shot up to -12.5, which means sharp money backing the home team. The Dolphins are +575 on the moneyline, while the Bills are heavy favorites at -850. The total is set at 49.5, reflecting Buffalo’s high-powered offense and Miami’s leaky defense.

The weather forecast for Buffalo is fairly mild for September, sitting at 64 degrees, overcast, with light winds, so for once, the Dolphins can’t blame the cold if they take their 3rd loss.

Buffalo Looks Like a Contender

On top of Miami’s slow start, the Buffalo Bills are dominating in every way that matters. They rank 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 35.5 PPG and 1st in total offense, racking up a staggering 450 yards per game. QB Josh Allen has been solid, completing 47-of-71 passes for 542 yards and 2 TDs through 2 games. Most importantly, he’s protected the football very well.

Running back James Cook has been one of the league’s early breakout stars as he’s carried the ball 34 times for 176 yards and 3 TDs, all while averaging over 5 yards per carry. Buffalo is also 2nd in rushing yards per game with 166, and with Miami allowing 139 rushing yards per game, Cook is set up to do more damage against this weak defense.

Defensively, the Bills are just as stout. They’ve allowed just 25 PPG, rank 1st in passing yards allowed with 124 YPG, and are 8th in total defense. They’re pressuring quarterbacks with 5.5 sacks under their belt and keeping receivers in check. For an offense like Miami’s that depends on speed and rhythm, that’s probably going to be a problem.

Buffalo is 2-0 against the spread, has won both home and road games, and has a +10.5 average point differential — granted, their steep 30-10 win over the Jets helped most of that. They’re simply one of the most complete teams in the NFL right now.

Miami Is Spiraling Fast

The Miami Dolphins came into the season with high hopes, but through 2 weeks, the wheels look like they’re falling off. They lost 33-27 to the Patriots and got absolutely embarrassed 33-8 by the Colts. The defense is a mess, the offense can’t stay on the field, and even special teams have been shaky.

QB Tua Tagovailoa has put up 429 passing yards, 3 TDs, and 3 INTs, but let’s be honest, a lot of those numbers have come in garbage time. The Dolphins are 15th in passing yards per game with 215 and a disastrous 29th in rushing with just 69.5 yards per game. De’Von Achane, who is one of the better backs in the league, leads the team with only 85 yards on 18 carries.

Star wideout Tyreek Hill is doing what he can, with 10 receptions for 149 yards, but there’s just no consistency in the offense. The Dolphins are 32nd in time of possession at 23:46 per game, which puts a tired defense back on the field far too often.

That defense, by the way, is giving up 33 PPG, 375.5 total yards, and ranks 24th against the pass and 25th against the run. They’re simply getting steamrolled no matter how good their offense does. They also rank 31st on 3rd down defense, allowing opponents to convert over 52% of the time. That’s a nightmare matchup against a Bills offense converting drives at will.

Add in the fact that Detroit smoked Miami in time of possession, and Buffalo ranks 1st in that stat with an average of 36:35 per game, and you get a one-sided time of possession mismatch that usually leads to blowouts.

What to Watch For

This game could get fairly ugly if Miami can’t control the tempo. Buffalo’s pass defense has the tools to limit Tyreek Hill and force Tua into plenty of mistakes. And with Cook running the ball well and Allen keeping defenses honest, it’s hard to find a weakness in the Bills right now.

On a short week, teams often simplify their game plans. That usually favors the more complete and disciplined team. Right now, that’s Buffalo, and it’s not even close.

It’s also worth noting that TNF games tend to go under the total. In fact, unders are 2-0 this season on TNF, and since 2022, the under has hit in 21 of 35 games. So even with a high total, there’s reason to lean toward a lower-scoring game than expected.

Prediction and Best Bet

Buffalo is just better at every level, and it’s painfully obvious. They have the better quarterback, better defense, better offensive line, better special teams, and a major coaching edge. We could keep on going. The Dolphins are a mess on both sides of the ball, and a short week on the road isn’t going to help them sort things out.

Buffalo has already proven it can beat teams with explosive offenses and stingy defenses. Miami is neither of those right now, so we don’t see this going well for them.

• Final Score Prediction: Bills 34, Dolphins 13
• Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -12.5 at -112

We expect the Bills to pull away early and never look back. This feels like a comfortable cover of the -12.5 spread, and another statement win by a team that looks ready to contend deep into January.