Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for August 20th

The St. Louis Cardinals will try to complete a sweep of the Miami Marlins tonight, wrapping up a 3-game series between 2 teams on the outside of the playoff picture. While neither team has much of a chance at a wild-card run, this game still offers some solid betting angles, especially with both starting pitchers struggling this month. It’s not always the hottest games we target our bets with, but the ones that have the potential to generate the best returns.

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

The first pitch is set for 5:40 PM at LoanDepot Park in Miami, where the Cards have already taken the first 2 games of the series by scores of 8-3 and 7-4. This is, of course, after their first series back in July, where the Marlins took it 2-1. This finale features Andre Pallante with a 6-10 record and a 5.04 ERA on the mound for St. Louis, and Sandy Alcantara, who is sitting at 6-11 with a 6.31 ERA, starting for Miami.

Pallante’s season has been rocky, to say the least, and things haven’t improved in August. Over his last 3 outings, he’s allowed 12 earned runs in just 11.2 innings, while giving up 18 hits and walking 7 in that span. That includes a 5-inning outing against the Yankees in which he gave up 4 runs and another ugly appearance versus the Cubs, where he didn’t make it out of the second inning. His ERA in August sits at a brutal 9.26. He may not be the SP you want taking the bump for your team, but he’s consistent, and that’s what makes for great bets.

The Marlins counter with Alcantara, who has also been shelled recently as well. In his 3 August starts, he’s posted a 6.00 ERA, giving up 12 earned runs spanning 18 innings of work. Though he pitched decently last time out in Boston with 6 innings, 2 runs, and a walk — it wasn’t enough to stop the Marlins from losing their 4th straight game at the time. He hasn’t recorded a win since July 18th and has dropped 2 of his last decisions. However, the records don’t always paint a clear picture, as a pitcher also needs run support if they’re going to get the win.

Betting Odds and Trends

The Marlins are -126 favorites on the moneyline, while the Cardinals sit at +104 as road underdogs. The run line has Miami at -1.5 with a +167 price tag, while St. Louis is +1.5 at -206. The total is set at 8.5 runs, with the under juiced at -118 and the over at -103.

The Cardinals have now won 2 straight games and are 4-2 in their last 6 overall. They’ve outscored Miami 15-7 through the first 2 games of this series and have climbed back to just one game below .500 at 63-64. Despite sitting 16.5 games back in the NL Central, they’re playing looser and with more energy than earlier in the season, despite the fact that they’re quickly falling from the wild card race.

On the other side of the diamond, the Marlins have dropped 4 of their last 5, and their season continues to spiral out of control. They’re 4th in the NL East at 59-67 and have lost control of their pitching staff, giving up 7+ runs in 3 of their last 5 games.

Why the Cardinals Can Sweep

The difference in this game might come down to which lineup you trust more against 2 pitchers who’ve been allowing runs in bunches. The Cardinals’ offense is far from elite, but it’s somehow producing right now. Willson Contreras leads the way with his 16 HRs, 66 RBI, and a .260 AVG, while Alec Burleson is batting .287 with a solid .454 SLG.

Even more important than those numbers is their momentum. In back-to-back games at LoanDepot Park, the Cardinals have hit with RISP and gotten just enough from the bullpen to close things out. That might be all they need again, given Alcantara’s recent form. Yes, he blanked the Cardinals over 5 innings back in July, but since then, his command has faded, and he’s not looking the same. He’s allowed 24 hits and 6 walks in his last 18 innings, which is definitely not a recipe for bouncing back.

Miami’s bats, outside of Kyle Stowers, who has a .288 AVG, 25 HRs, and 73 RBIs, just haven’t been consistent. Xavier Edwards has done his part at the top of the order with a solid .304 average, but the Marlins continue to strand runners on the bags. In last night’s loss, they left 5 men on base, including several in scoring position.

The Cardinals also have the edge in recent bullpen performance. Miami’s relievers have been taxed heavily, giving up late runs in both games of this series. That opens the door for a St. Louis offense that’s finding life at just the right time and looking to close out the series on a high note.

Final Score Prediction

LoanDepot Park has averaged 8.4 total runs per game this season, and its over/under record sits at 28-32-1 to the under. Tonight’s total of 8.5 is right in that sweet spot, but considering the way both pitchers are trending — and how sharp the bats have been through the first 2 games of this series — this feels like a game that has a solid shot at going over.

• Cards vs Marlins Score Prediction: Cardinals 6, Marlins 4
• Best Bet: Cardinals +104 moneyline 

We expect a few crooked numbers on the board again, given that St. Louis is playing with house money, while the Marlins are pressing, and Alcantara hasn’t shown the same bite he had in previous years. If the Cardinals jump on him early again, and we can’t see why they wouldn’t, the Marlins may not have enough firepower to claw back.