One game, one night, and a lot of strikeout questions. World Series Game 3 tips off at 8:00 PM ET on FOX from Tropicana Field, with the Milwaukee Brewers (103-59) leading the series 2-0 and the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) trying to avoid a 3-0 hole. Robert Gasser takes the ball for Milwaukee, and ex-Brewer Freddy Peralta starts for Tampa Bay. The Rays are small favorites around -120 on the moneyline, with the Brewers near +102 and the total sitting at 6.5 to 7 runs.

When the whole slate is one game, the pitcher props are where the real information lives. Strikeout lines look simple, but they are really bets on two things: how good a pitcher is at missing bats, and how long his manager lets him stay in the game. Here are three starting pitcher bets for Game 3, with the reasoning spelled out so you can see why each one works.

Freddy Peralta Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+113 at DraftKings)

Let’s be upfront about this one: it goes against a popular model. The Dimers projection likes Peralta Over 4.5 strikeouts, giving it roughly a 63% probability, and several books have the Over priced around -130 to -143. That is a fair argument. Peralta is a former strikeout machine, and he is the Brewers’ all-time leader in K/9 among qualified pitchers at 11.2.

But the actual results this postseason tell a different story. Peralta has struck out 12 batters in 16.2 innings across four playoff appearances, and in his three starts he has gone 6, 3 and 3 strikeouts. He has also been getting outs more than getting whiffs: his ALCS Game 6 clincher produced just three strikeouts over 5.1 innings, and his division series start against the Yankees produced three over 4.2. Since joining Tampa Bay he has struck out 43 batters against 15 walks in 10 regular-season starts, which is solid but not the 11-per-nine monster he was in Milwaukee. Only one of his three playoff starts cleared this number.

The matchup also leans toward the Under. The Brewers lineup is patient and puts the ball in play, and Milwaukee is the team that chased Rays ace Drew Rasmussen out after 3.2 innings in Game 2. The Brewers know Peralta well, since he spent his first eight seasons there, and many of these hitters were his teammates until January. If they shorten up and fight off fastballs, strikeouts will be harder to come by. At plus money, the Under is the side the postseason sample supports, so we are taking it, while acknowledging that the model disagrees. Peralta’s current line may have moved, so check your book before you bet.

Robert Gasser Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150 at BetMGM)

This is the cleanest of the three. Gasser has not struck out more than three batters in three of his last four starts, including both of his postseason outings. In the NLDS against San Diego he went four innings and struck out three. In the NLCS against the Dodgers he threw five scoreless innings, struck out three, and was pulled at just 72 pitches.

That last detail is the key. Milwaukee does not ask its young starters to go deep. Gasser has recorded only four to five outs in some of his playoff work, and the Brewers’ bullpen has a 1.24 ERA across 50 and two-thirds postseason innings, with Aaron Ashby still unscored upon. When a manager trusts the relievers that much, the starter’s leash is short, and a short leash puts a hard ceiling on strikeouts. Gasser’s regular-season strikeout rate of 22.2 percent is decent, but it only matters if he faces enough batters to use it.

Gasser is also facing the Rays for the first time in his career, and the Rays are expected to stack right-handed bats against the left-hander. The price is steeper than the others at -150 on BetMGM (some books are closer to -132), so shop around, but the combination of a quick hook and a recent three-strikeout pattern makes this the most reliable bet on the card. If you want to compare numbers across books, the live MLB odds page is a good place to start.

Freddy Peralta Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (check your book for the price)

Our third bet pairs naturally with the first. If Peralta is not going to pile up strikeouts, how does he keep winning? By getting deep into games. In all three of his starts this postseason, Peralta has recorded at least 14 outs, and his shortest outing was 4.2 innings. Over 14.5 outs means he needs to get through the fifth inning, which is five full innings or close to it.

The Rays have good reason to push him. They are down 2-0 and need a long outing to stay flexible with their relievers, and Peralta had extra rest after his ALCS clincher, which Tampa Bay said was meant to give it the best version of him in this start. He has also been excellent at home, with a 1.45 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 37.1 innings in seven starts at Tropicana Field since the trade. He has not allowed more than one run in any of his last nine starts, so there is no reason for Kevin Cash to pull him early. I could not confirm a posted price on this market, so check your sportsbook for the current number before you decide. Note that this is a different kind of bet than a strikeout total: it rewards efficiency, and it fits the Under 4.5 story well.

Lock These In for Game 3

The thread running through all three picks is workload, not stuff. Milwaukee will pull Gasser early, so his strikeouts are capped. Peralta should work deep but with contact, so his strikeouts stay modest while his outs total climbs. Before you place anything, compare prices, since lines move and books differ. If you are new to this, our betting calculator shows what each wager pays at the price you find.

Bet only what you can afford to lose, and remember that no prop is a lock. First pitch is at 8:00 PM ET.