Open Championship Predictions: Our Best Bets for Thursday, July 17
As the final major of the season arrives tomorrow, The Open Championship returns to Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. A field stacked with the world’s top golfers descends upon one of golf’s most challenging and visually stunning links venues, hoping to etch their name into the history books. As the only major played outside the United States and the oldest in the sport, The Open always brings a distinct test of mental and physical endurance.
To succeed, players must navigate the elements, find shot creativity, and have strategic precision. As quoted on todays-golfer, “You need to drive the ball well at Portrush. With the false fronts and the change of elevation on a lot of the holes, you can’t run the ball into the vast majority of the greens. You’ve got to fly it on and stop it on the greens, which you can’t do from the rough.”
Coming off last week’s article cashing five of our seven placement bets, let’s follow that up with another profitable week for my clients and readers!
Course Preview: Royal Portrush – The Dunluce Links
Nestled on Northern Ireland’s rugged north coast, Royal Portrush Golf Club is a masterpiece of natural design and championship rigor. The Dunluce Links, significantly reworked ahead of the 2019 Open, stands as a formidable challenge even by links standards.
Stretching to nearly 7,400 yards as a par 71, the course blends tight fairways, undulating terrain, deep rough, penal pot bunkers, and small, well-defended greens that reward precision and ball control.
Key Stats Correlating to Success at Royal Portrush
Driving Accuracy Percentage, which ranks 11th in predictive strength across the PGA Tour. While length is often highlighted at majors, Portrush rewards those who can find fairways and avoid the thick fescue and deep pot bunkers that line the landing areas. Position off the tee matters just as much—if not more—than total yardage. Players who consistently keep the ball in play will have far more scoring opportunities and avoid the kind of double bogeys that derail major championship hopes.
Secondary stats also point to which players are best equipped for the challenge at Royal Portrush. Leading the Tour in approach shots out of the rough from 100–125 yards, as well as from 250–275 yards in the rough indicates a player’s ability to control the ball out of trouble, which almost every player will face. Portrush does not allow players to play from perfect lies all day; those who can still hit precise approaches from challenging positions will maintain scoring chances.
Sand Save Percentage will be especially critical. Royal Portrush’s bunkers are deep, steep-faced, and often leave players with little room to work with. The ability to save par after finding a greenside trap can be the difference between making a cut and contending late Sunday.
Finally, Open Championship Experience is relevant in my opinion. Those who have proven their ability to handle unpredictable conditions, patient scoring, and links-style creativity often separate themselves in the late rounds and we have plenty of golfers with experience here.
Players to Watch at The Open Championship 2025
Rory McIlroy enters this week with the narrative arc tailor-made for redemption. After a missed cut at Portrush in 2019 and a decade-long major drought, McIlroy returns to his native Northern Ireland determined to right past wrongs. His form has been excellent for much of the season, and few in the field combine local knowledge, shot-making ability, and motivation like Rory. If his putter cooperates, the crowd could witness one of the most emotional victories in Open history.
Scottie Scheffler, the world No. 1, continues to be a model of consistency. His elite ball-striking, composed demeanor, and ability to limit mistakes make him a natural fit for Open Championship conditions. Though his putting has been up and down, his recent form suggests he’s rounding into shape at the right time. If he can keep the driver in play, his irons and short game should carry him well into the weekend.
Collin Morikawa, the 2021 Open champion, is another name to circle. Morikawa has quietly been trending upward with multiple top-10 finishes in recent starts. His ability to control trajectory and spin, combined with his calm under pressure, is perfectly suited for Portrush. His experience winning on links soil cannot be overlooked, and he’s proven that he can rise to the occasion on the biggest stages.
Ludvig Åberg is the emerging star that many believe could steal the spotlight. Making his Open debut last year, the young Swede showed poise well beyond his years. With a complete game and a rapidly growing confidence, Åberg could follow in the footsteps of Morikawa by winning one of his first appearances at this major. His accuracy and iron play will be tested, but his ceiling is undeniably high.
Tommy Fleetwood remains a sentimental and statistical favorite. Despite not having claimed a major title, he’s repeatedly proven his mettle in links conditions, and his runner-up finish at Royal Portrush in 2019 is proof he can contend here. With one of the best short games in the world and a passionate following behind him, Fleetwood could finally break through.
Best Bets (all odds via Bet365)
Parlay 1: Scottie Scheffler + Jon Rahm Top 30 (-134)
Starting off going back to our top player 2-leg parlay looks for the week. Another pairing we get around -130ish odds when other books are -180+. It is understandable, as I mentioned last week, that some may not like the odds on this parlay and want something sexier in the + money range, but most weeks this puts money in your pocket.
Scottie Scheffler’s last four Open Championships have finishes of 7, 23, 21, 8, and gained an average of 2 strokes per round in those 4 events. He enters this week having posted ten top-10 finishes this season and could be in line to win his 1st Open. Top 30 is a lock for him most weeks!
Jon Rahm has had a successful Open run as of late and averages 1.66 strokes gained per round over his 30 rounds tracked. His recent finishes of 7, 2, 34, 3, and 11 have him looking like a nice option to finish inside the Top 30 again! You could push for plus money and play both guys to finish Top 20, but we have seen both not make it and Top 30 for both are near locks every week!
Parlay 2: Rory McIlroy + Xander Schauffele Top 40 (-136)
Rory continues to dominate this season, coming off a T2 last week he will be hungry to show strong here after missing the cut in 2019. Rory is one of the strongest Open Championship players in this field gaining 2.12 strokes per round. Rory has finished Top 6 in 5 of his last 8 Opens.
Outside of the Majors, Rory has six Top 25 finishes in his last 6 Links course events, finishing Top 4 in five of those six. Even with Rory’s struggles here in 2019, with his current form I have to back him to have a better showing.
I will almost always find a way to get Xander in our plays, and in the Opens, he’s been even better! Locking in at the right time as well coming off a T8 last week. He has finished inside the Top 40, ten times this season, finishing Top 30 in every major. This pairing could also be pushed to plus money if you would like to take both to finish Top 30, it is worth a half unit shot!
Jordan Spieth Top 40 (-105)
This is most certainly a risky play with him not only coming off a withdrawal of rib injury that turned into back spasms, but the real issue is becoming a new dad for the 3rd time. Usually that’s a good spot to face any player in a sport as their energy levels could be less than normal. With Jordan he has been off for around 4 weeks and claims to be rested and in a good spot.
Jordan is the #1 player in this field gaining 2.39 strokes per round over 36 Open Championship rounds. He has finished inside the top 30 nine straight times. Jordan thrives in links style courses, finishing T20 here in 2019.
To add to his links success, he ranks 16th in strokes gained total, 34th Off the Tee and 46th Approaching the Green, he has 4 Top 10s this season and could add a 5th!
Matt Fitzpatrick Top 40 (-134)
Going back to Fitzpatrick here as he cashed in for us last week and is one of the stronger links players in this field. He finished 50th last season when he was not as locked in as he has been. Prior to that he finished 41, 21, 26 and 20th (here in 2019).
He is playing some of the best golf in a few years and he could find another podium finish this week! He has finished inside the Top 40 in nine straight events, with five Top 30’s, and two Top 10’s.
He has been solid on the bag all season ranking 48th Strokes Gained Total, 58th Off the Tee and 15th in Sand Save. He is accurate off the tee and is 14th in approach shots greater than 200 yards.
Sepp Straka Top 40 (-125)
Sepp has had a horrendous 2025 major campaign, and I must back him here to right that ship. He has found success in recent Open championships finishing 22nd last season and 2nd the year prior. He averages 1.05 strokes gained per round in Open Championships and Sepp has put together possibly his best season in 2025.
With thirteen Top 40 finishes, six Top 10s, and two Wins this season, he could make one more run at a podium finish. Sepp has also been one of the best players on tour ranking 3rd in Stokes Gained Total, 4th in Approach to Green, 48th Off the Tee, 27th in Putting, 17th in Driving Accuracy and 4th in GIR%, he has the complete game to find another top finish!
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