UFC 316 Betting Preview: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili 2
UFC 316 takes center stage this Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, with a stacked card headlined by two title fights. Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili puts his belt on the line in a high-stakes rematch against Sean O’Malley.
While former PFL champion Kayla Harrison gets her first crack at UFC gold when she challenges Julianna Peña for the women’s bantamweight title. With a mix of star power, veterans, and fast-rising prospects, UFC 316 could prove to be one of the best cards this year!
Championship Previews: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili II and Harrison vs. Peña
The bantamweight division reaches a boiling point in the main event as Sean O’Malley gets his shot at redemption in a rematch with the relentless Merab Dvalishvili. Their first encounter was mainly dominated by Dvalishvili, while O’Malley claims he was slowed by an injured hip. O’Malley stated he is in one of the best and healthiest shapes of his fighting career heading into Saturday night.
For O’Malley, this rematch presents a critical test of what the future could hold. If he gets his belt back, a world of possibilities opens up. If he loses back-to-back fights to Dvalishvili, I truly don’t know where O’Malley will go from there. He will have to control range, be precise, and find creativity to get to Dvalishvili’s chin. He’ll need more than flash to keep Dvalishvili off him for five rounds. The Georgian’s cardio is elite, and his ability to score takedowns in volume can break even the most technical strikers. O’Malley’s takedown defense and ability to stay composed under pressure will be what the watch for.
In the co-main event, Kayla Harrison takes her next step in the UFC after a decision win last October. The two-time Olympic gold medalist and former PFL champion brings a rare physicality to the bantamweight division. Julianna Peña is no stranger to pulling off upsets. Peña shocked the MMA world in 2021 by submitting Amanda Nunes and has shown she can thrive in chaos.
This matchup will hinge on Peña’s ability to keep the fight standing. If Harrison is able to close the distance and impose her grappling early, she could slow Peña before she can get going. If Peña is able to drag this thing into deep waters, all that muscle on Harrison may cause her to fatigue and Peña could surprise with a late onslaught.
Best Bets for UFC 316
Sean O’Malley +5.5 Points Handicap (-135, DraftKings)
If O’Malley doesn’t regain his title, this line gives us a shot to still cash in on him. The last fight was closer than a lot of people think, and O’Malley was able to find some success late. As in shape and as sharp as Dvalishvili is, he can also be sloppy, and he is due to get caught eventually. This should be a competitive fight if O’Malley is sharp and can find his range. I believe he can win a couple rounds and give the judges a close decision call.
Sergei Spivac Moneyline (-135, DraftKings)
Spivac faces a tough opponent, and we’ve made nice money on Acosta, but Spivac looks to have more paths to victory here. His wrestling-heavy style is effective against opponents who struggle with pressure and top control. Spivac stands behind a solid jab and puts out good volume.
Acosta has certainly improved since his lone loss to another heavy grappler in de Lima. His only path to victory is out boxing Spivac here. I trust Spivac to bounce back from a KO loss to a very good Jailton Almeida. If he can find a way to get inside the void and get Acosta on the ground, he can finish with a sub or do some damage with ground and pound. I like Acosta but Spivac gets his hand raised Saturday.
Harrison vs. Peña Over 3.5 Rounds (-110, Bet365)
This is women’s MMA, and I am one of the biggest proponents for staying off women’s sides and targeting over round props instead. Especially in a championship bout, I believe both will take a minute to get their game going. Both fighters are durable and experienced, and Peña knows if she can get this to championship rounds, she could outlast Harrison.
While Peña is notoriously hard to finish, Harrison may look for a control-heavy strategy that could reign down boos from the crowd. I believe the o4.5 at plus money is worthy of a sprinkle as well! If we see a finish, I expect it to be in rounds 4 or 5.
Patchy Mix Moneyline (-175, Bet365)
A juicy play, especially on a PFL fighter coming over to the UFC is not one I would normally advocate for. Having said that, I just believe Patchy Mix is different and one of the most dangerous submission artists in the bantamweight division. Yes, Mario Bautista has fought the better competition and is on a 7-fight win streak in the UFC, but I believe Mix’s height and reach difference could give him the leverage he needs to get Bautista in compromised positions.
This line should be much lower and is disrespectful to a very good 15-2 Mario Bautista. A 20-1 Patchy Mix will find a way to avoid Bautisa on the feet and win this by control, and possibly find a submission, where Bautista does have 1 loss by submission in his career.
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