Yankees vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The New York Yankees are back in action against the Baltimore Orioles tonight, looking to bounce back after a tough 4-3 loss in Game 1 of the series. With Carlos Rodon taking the bump for New York and Kyle Gibson making his first start for Baltimore, this sets up as a great opportunity for the Yankees to even the series and for you to make some bets.

Game Details and Betting Odds

The Yankees have started the season off smoking hot and enter with a 17-12 record, leading the AL East, while the Orioles are struggling at 11-17, sitting at the bottom of the division. Despite the Game 1 loss, the Yankees remain road favorites behind Rodon at -155 on the moneyline. The Orioles look to build momentum after snapping a 3-game losing streak last night and come in as underdogs at +130.

Baltimore is a home underdog here for a reason — even after their gritty win yesterday. They’ve been outperformed in just about every key area — offense, pitching, and consistency. Their 5-11 record on the road and 6-6 home just goes to show their lack of stability, while the Yankees are 10-5 at home and an even 7-7 on the road.

So, the odds for tonight’s matchup totally make sense but we still have to take a peek behind the numbers to see who’s the better bet here.

Matchup Breakdown — Offense, Pitching, and Trends

New York’s loss on Monday wasn’t due to a lack of effort. They’ve won 3 of their last 5, including 2 blowout wins over the Blue Jays in which they won 11-2 and 5-1. Given that they’re one of the hottest teams in the MLB, that’s no surprise to us.

The Orioles, on the other hand, are just 2-3 in their last 5 and had been held to 3 runs or fewer in 4 of those games before the narrow win over New York in which the Yankees tried crawling back at the end of the game but couldn’t get enough done.

Carlos Rodon gives the Yankees a strong shot to get back on track. The LHP is 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts across 36 innings. These numbers aren’t elite, but very serviceable. He’s coming off solid outings and gets a juicy matchup against a Baltimore team hitting just .224 which is 25th in MLB and striking out nearly 7.2 times per game. This is his chance to shine and work on that stat line a bit.

On the other side, Kyle Gibson hasn’t logged a start this season since the O’s signed him on Friday to a one-year deal as he was a UFA. There’s no recent sample to judge, which adds a little more risk for Baltimore. The Yankees offense has been clicking, led by Aaron Judge, who’s tearing it up with a .405 average, 8 home runs, and 28 RBIs. Judge is also getting on base nearly 50% of the time and slugging .703. He’s not just hot — he’s dominating — as he usually does.

Cedric Mullins has been Baltimore’s most productive hitter, slashing .292/.432/.551 with 6 home runs and 20 RBIs. But outside of him, the lineup has been inconsistent. Sure, they have Gunnar Henderson, but he hasn’t been doing much this year as he has a .224 AVG and only 2 dingers on the season. The Orioles average just 4.0 runs per game, while New York puts up 5.4. The Yankees also lead the majors in batting average and are 2nd in home runs per game.

Pitching-wise, there’s a huge gap. The Yankees’ team ERA is 3.72 which is 11th in the league, while Baltimore sits near the bottom at 5.24. Opponents are hitting .287 AVG against the Orioles, which is second-worst in the league. That’s a big problem against a New York lineup that ranks 1st in batting average and top 5 in most offensive categories.

Baltimore’s bullpen was tested in Game 1 and was able to hold on by a thread, but asking them to repeat that effort, especially with Gibson making his first start, feels like a bit of a reach. New York simply has too many weapons and a much deeper rotation.

One thing to watch is the park factor. Camden Yards is producing over 11 runs per game this year, so the total line of 10, which is high by most standards, might still feel low. The Yankees’ ability to pile on runs in bunches could push the game over, but that likely depends on how quickly they get to Gibson.

Prediction and Best Bet

Game 1 was close, but the edge still lies with New York. They’re a more balanced team, have the better starter, and are performing better across the board. Rodon’s strikeout rate and command give him the edge over an unproven Gibson, and the Yankees’ bats should bounce back.

We’re taking the Yankees to win this one comfortably. Judge continues to crush, and Rodon holds the Orioles in check just enough for the bats to take over.

• Prediction: Yankees 6, Orioles 3
• Best Bet: New York Yankees run line -1.5 at +105

Of course, the moneyline at -148 is the safer bet, but the way the Yankees have been producing plus the odds at +105 simply make this a better bet all around.

If you wanted to toss a prop bet in the mix to get a little more action on your bet slip, you might want to take Aaron Judge to hit an anytime home run at +235. Given that he has 8 on the season and Camden Yards is known for giving up the long bombs, we feel that passing on this prop bet is like leaving money on the table.

Either way, this is going to be a great game that’s ripe with some betting opportunities.