Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs are set to face off at Wrigley Field tonight with the first pitch at 6:40 PM and it’s going to be a chilly one. This matchup pits 2 teams with solid early-season records against each other. The Rangers sit at a decent 8-2, leading the AL West while the Cubs are 7-5, topping the NL Central.

Both squads are coming off a strong series which makes this game even more intense. Texas has won 4 of their last 5, while Chicago swept the Athletics.

Breaking Down the Odds and Pitching Matchup

The oddsmakers for this game have the Cubs as slight favorites.

Chicago’s moneyline sits at -130, while the Rangers are at +110, which is not surprising that the odds are so close given how how these teams have been.

The run line has Texas at +1.5 with -225 odds, and the Cubs at -1.5 with +175 and the total runs line is set at 8, with the over at -115 and the under at -105. While these numbers indicate they believe it’ll be a close game, the oddsmakers are giving a slight edge to the home team.

On the bump for tonight, the Rangers are sending out Nathan Eovaldi. He’s been steady with his first 2 starts this season with a 1-0 record and a 1.20 ERA over 15 innings. Eovaldi has struck out 17 batters while walking just one. That’s great control with a 0.47 WHIP over the short span. His ability to keep baserunners off of the bags will be key against a Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in the league with 6.4 runs per game.

For Chicago, Justin Steele takes the ball. He’s not doing as great as Eovaldi over these few games, but he’s not bad. Steele has a 2-1 record with a 6.00 ERA across 18 innings. He’s struck out 18 but has walked 7, leading to a 1.34 WHIP. Steele’s inconsistency could be a problem against a Rangers team that’s been hitting for both contact and power.

The Cubs have the edge in offense, averaging .246 in batting average which is good for 11th in the league compared to the Rangers’ .192. Chicago is also playing a bit more aggressively as they also lead in stolen bases with 1.3 per game, while Texas lags at 1.4. However, the Rangers have been better at limiting opponents’ batting average, holding teams to .211 compared to the Cubs’ .269.

This pitching edge could play a big role if the Rangers can neutralize the Cubs’ big bats.

Analyzing Team Trends and Key Stats

The Rangers have been solid on the road. In fact, they’ve won 4 of their last 5 away games, including a 5-2 win over the Rays and a 1-0 shutout against the Reds. Overall, they’re making things happen on the road.

Their pitching staff has been a big reason for their wins as well, with a team ERA of 2.93 which is good for 5th in the MLB while also ranking 9th in Ks at 9.0 per game, showing they can get out of jams.

Offensively, Wyatt Langford has been a solid contributor, leading the team with 3 dingers and a .295 batting average. Jake Burger has driven in 8 RBIs, giving the Rangers some pop in the middle of the lineup.

The Cubs have undoubtedly been strong at home, winning 3 straight at Wrigley Field, including a 10-2 rout of the Athletics. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, led by Kyle Tucker, who’s hitting .319 with 5 home runs and 15 RBIs. Nico Hoerner is also contributing with an incredible .364 batting average.

Chicago’s ability to score early has been one of their core strengths as they average 1.4 home runs per game. But their pitching has been a concern as they head into the season. The Cubs’ staff has a 4.58 ERA, and they’ve struggled to keep runners off the bases allowing a 1.34 WHIP. This could be a quite problem against a Rangers team that’s been patient at the plate.

One stat that jumps out to us is the Rangers’ success as underdogs. 5 of their last 6 games in that role have gone under the total runs line. On the other hand, the Cubs have been hot, but they’ve faced weaker competition recently — like the Athletics. The Rangers have taken down tougher teams like the Reds and Rays. Corey Seager has also been a thorn in the Cubs’ side, recording at least one hit in each of his last 7 games against them.

This matchup feels like a spot where Texas can keep it close despite the odds.

Our Prediction and Best Bet for Rangers vs Cubs

After looking at the numbers, We’re pretty confident that the Rangers will pull off the upset. We think the oddsmakers are overvaluing Chicago’s home-field advantage.

The Rangers have the better pitcher on the mound with Eovaldi. His 1.20 ERA and 0.47 WHIP show he’s in control, and he’s been lights-out this season. Steele, on the other hand, has been shaky with a 6.00 ERA, and the Rangers’ lineup, led by Langford and Burger, can and will capitalize on his mistakes.

The Rangers’ pitching staff has been stingy this far as they’ve allowed just 1.2 home runs per game, which neutralizes the Cubs’ power. Sure, Chicago’s offense is strong, but their 7.1 strikeouts per game tells us they can be contained by a pitcher like Eovaldi, who’s been racking up Ks.

Texas also has the edge in stolen bases, which would unquestionably lead to extra runs in a tight game. The Cubs’ bullpen has been average, and if Steele gets into trouble early, the Rangers can build a lead and hold it for the rest of the game.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Rangers 5, Cubs 3
• Best Bet: Rangers on the ML at -110

Despite what the odds say, the Rangers have been the better team overall, and their pitching gives them the edge in this matchup. You’re getting plus money on a team that’s been winning consistently and has, without a doubt, the better starter. Don’t let the Cubs’ home record fool you — Texas is the play tonight.