Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars Prediction and Best Bet

The Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in a marquee matchup tonight at American Airlines Center. Of the 14-game slate tonight, this is by far the game to watch — and bet on. Dallas comes in as a slight favorites at -130 on the moneyline, while Tampa Bay sits at +110. This will be a great game, but a pretty close game as well.

These 2 powerhouses are coming together for the second time this season after Dallas gave the Lightning a 4-2 beat down back in November. However, both teams look a little different this time around.

With both teams deep in playoff contention, this game comes with some serious implications for seeding and momentum heading into the final stretch of the regular season. With just over a dozen games left for each club, every game counts toward their playoff positioning.

Can the Stars Keep Rolling at Home?

Dallas has been one of the NHL’s most consistent home teams. In fact, they’ve won each of their last 8 games at American Airlines Center and have an overall home record of 25-7-1 — one of the best in the NHL.

They’ve also been strong against teams on a winning streak where they’ve covered the puck line in 7 of their last 8 home games in such situations.

Offensively, the Stars have been efficient but not what we’d call overpowering as they’re averaging 3.39 goals per game. They rely on balanced scoring, with Matt Duchene and Jason Robertson leading the charge. Adding some depth to the mix, Wyatt Johnston has been red-hot at home, scoring in 6 straight games. 

When it comes to the blue line, Dallas is one of the better teams in the league. They’ve allowed just 2.63 goals per game, thanks in part to Jake Oettinger who has a 31-15-3 record and a .906 SV% in the net. Of course, he’s been solid overall, but his ability to shut down high-powered offenses like the Lightning will be key in tonight’s game.

Can Tampa Bay’s Firepower Overcome Defensive Issues?

Tampa Bay boasts one of the league’s most dangerous offenses where they’re scoring an average of 3.51 goals per game. That places them 2nd in the league.

Nikita Kucherov and his 95 points are the key to their attack, and he’s been nearly unstoppable this season. In fact, he’s 3rd in the NHL for points, just behind MacKinnon and Draisaitl. Jake Guentzel who has 33 goals and Steven Stamkos who has 27 goals add even more firepower to the top 6.

However, Tampa’s defense is an issue. They’re allowing 2.64 goals per game, which isn’t bad on paper, but their road defense has been shaky at times and they’ll undoubtedly be tested against the Stars offense.

Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy with his 32-18-3 record and .920 SV% is still one of the best in the business. If he brings his A-game tonight, which he most likely will, he can steal a game for the Lightning. But will it be enough to topple the Stars?

Prediction and Best Bet

This is a classic battle of firepower vs. structure.

Tampa Bay has the ability to find the back of the net, but Dallas has been excellent at controlling tempo and limiting mistakes, especially at home.

Given the Stars’ 8-game home winning streak, their defensive discipline, and the fact that Tampa Bay has struggled defensively on the road, we’re backing Dallas in this one. 

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Stars 4, Lightning 2
• Best Bet: Stars moneyline (-130)

For even more value, Dallas -1.5 (+195) on the puck line is also worth a look. The Stars have been excellent at closing out games at home, and if they get a lead, they could extend it with an empty-netter in the final seconds of the game. 

With Oettinger in between the pipes and Dallas’ ability to slow down even elite offenses, we expect the Stars to come away with a hard-fought win for 2 points in front of their home crowd.