USA vs. Canada: Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for 4 Nations Final

The 2025 4 Nations Face Off Final is all set, and it’s a familiar rivalry on the biggest stage in the world. Team USA and Team Canada square off — once again — tonight at TD Garden in Boston.

The Americans, of course, got the upper hand in their first meeting, notching a 3-1 win that ended Canada’s 17-game best-on-best winning streak. That victory gave the U.S. a direct path to the final, while Canada was able to secure their slot in the final with a 5-3 win over Finland.

With Connor Hellebuyck in the net for the U.S. and Jordan Binnington starting for Canada, this rematch is going to be another intense showdown.

Team USA enters as a -112 favorite, while Canada is a -108 underdog, making this essentially a pick’em game. Even the bookmakers have this game as practically even. The total is set at 5.5 goals, and the Americans are sitting at +225 to cover -1.5 on the puck line.

USA vs. Canada Betting Odds and Analysis

Team USA proved to the world in their first matchup that they could tame Canada’s high-powered offense while capitalizing on key mistakes.

Hellebuyck was nothing less than outstanding as he allowed just a single goal, and he’ll be rested and ready after sitting out the final round-robin game against Sweden. His presence alone gives the U.S. a major edge in net, as he’s been rock-solid throughout the NHL season and tournament.

Offensively, Auston Matthews is still searching for his first goal of the event, but we could see that changing in the final. He remains one of the most dangerous goal-scorers in hockey and is due for a breakthrough despite dealing with some soreness.

The Tkachuk brothers, Matthew and Brady, have really been driving the offense. They combined for nearly half of Team USA’s goals which probably makes their dad Keith pretty happy to see.

On the blue line, Jaccob Slavin has been a shutdown force on defense. He’s been playing some heavy minutes and really anchoring a penalty kill that has been absolutely perfect in the tournament.

On the other side of the ice, Canada is banking on its star power to shine in the rematch.

Cale Makar was unavailable in the first meeting but will be in the lineup this time around and he’s a force to be recocked with. His ability to push the pace and contribute offensively will be key factor for Canada’s blue line.

On the top 6, Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon have been as dangerous as expected, and Sidney Crosby leads the team in points. The biggest concern we have is depth scoring — Canada has relied way too much on its top 2 lines, and that just might be a problem if the Americans once again find a way to limit their star power like they did in the first game.

Prediction and Best Bet

There’s no denying Canada’s pedigree in best-on-best tournaments.

The team has won 5 of the last 6 major international events, and historically, Canada has been dominant in gold-medal games when it comes to hockey.

However, we have to admit that this version of Team USA is built differently. These are some of the best American hockey players we’ve seen in a long time.

But the biggest difference? Goaltending.

Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the tournament by a long shot. His 9.5/10 confidence rating reflects just how much of a game-changer he is for the Americans.

Binnington, on the other hand, has been inconsistent with a .892 save percentage and hasn’t faced an elite U.S. attack at full strength yet. If the Americans strike early and force Canada to chase the game, it could be a long night for Binnington. Though, fortunately for him he’ll have Makar on the blue line for at least 25 minutes of the game.

We have no doubt that the physicality and intensity will be there, but Team USA has the edge in net, depth scoring, and even on the special teams. The Americans have scored twice on the power play despite missing Quinn Hughes, and their penalty kill has been nothing shy of perfect.

If this game comes down to a special-teams battle, the U.S. holds clearly the upper hand.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Team USA 3, Canada 2
• Best Bet: USA Moneyline (-112)

It’ll undoubtedly be another tight battle, but we’re predicting that Team USA will complete the sweep over Canada and win the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off. We expect Hellebuyck to steal the show again and the Tkachuk brothers to be difference-makers in a 3-2 U.S. victory.

This game will probably head into overtime (maybe even a shootout) and that’s where we’ll see the Americans walk away with the title.

4 Nations Face Off Schedule