Ohio State vs Notre Dame Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The stage is set for the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship tonight as the Ohio State Buckeyes face off against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The excitement has been building and the game has finally arrived.

Both teams have taken very different paths to this game. However, their clash at Mercedes-Benz Stadium later tonight looks as if it’s going to be a tightly contested battle despite the big tip in the odds.

Ohio State enters as an 8.5-point favorite, while the over/under is set at a moderate 46.5 points. Can the Buckeyes seal the deal and hoist the trophy? Or will the Fighting Irish live up to their name and surprise us all?

Breaking Down the Betting Odds

The Buckeyes are favored for a really good reason. They’ve dominated the College Football Playoffs. They’ve won their first 3 games by a combined margin of 59 points — and these weren’t pushover teams, either.

Quarterback Will Howard and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith have led the dominant offense that averages an insane 428.3 yards per game.

On the other side of the ball, their top-ranked defense has held the high-powered Texas Longhorns to just 14 points in the semifinals which was capped off by a game-clinching fumble return from defensive end Jack Sawyer.

Notre Dame, however, has been what we would call the definition of resilience.

After a shocking Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois, the Irish learned from it and have rattled off 13 straight wins. Their defense, ranked 2nd in the nation, has been the foundation of the team as they’re allowing just 14.3 points per game.

Offensively they’re pretty solid as well. They rely on a powerful ground game led by Jeremiyah Love, who averages 7.1 yards per carry and has 17 touchdowns on the season.

Oddsmakers are leaning heavily toward Ohio State with a -350 money line, but the Irish’s strong track record against the spread (they’re 12-2-1 ATS this season) just cannot be overlooked. That’s what we mean when we say they’re resilient. 

On top of that, Notre Dame has covered the spread in 11 consecutive games, making the +8.5 spread a pretty nice bet for bettors expecting a closer contest.

Ohio State’s Key to Victory: Air Attack and Defensive Depth

Ohio State’s path to success really revolves around its explosive passing game.

Will Howard has been a machine all season long. He’s thrown for a staggering 2,860 yards, 27 TDs, and only 8 interceptions. 

When you pair that with the talents of Jeremiah Smith (934 yards, 10 TDs), you get a Buckeyes team that can stretch even the best of defenses. 

While Texas managed to limit their production, the duo has shown they can still dominate under pressure — and Texas was no slouch.

The Buckeyes’ defense is really their ace in the hole. After giving up a season-high 35 points in their loss to Michigan, they’ve clamped down in the playoffs and made the necessary changes. They’ve held their 3 CFP opponents to an average of 17.3 points per game and that’s no easy feat. With Jack Sawyer and Caleb Downs leading the charge, Ohio State has the ability to make big plays in critical moments.

For Ohio State to cover, they’ll need to take full advantage of Notre Dame’s one potential defensive weakness — defending against elite passing attacks. The Irish rank just 181st in passing yards allowed per game, which we think will spell trouble against Howard’s arm.

Notre Dame’s Key to Victory: Controlling the Clock

Notre Dame’s formula is clear — run the ball effectively and lean on their defense. That’s it. Seems simple, but it worked.

Jeremiyah Love has been nothing less than exceptional as he rushed for 1,121 yards and 17 TDs on the season. On top of that, QB Riley Leonard adds a dual-threat element with 721 rushing yards to complement his efficient passing game.

The Irish average a hefty 210.7 rushing yards per game which ranks them 22nd nationally, and they’ll need to dominate the time of possession to keep Ohio State’s offense off the field. That’s a tall order, but it’s a necessary one.

Defensively, Notre Dame will rely on its ability to bend without breaking. They’ll need to continue their perfection if they want a chance tonight. The unit has been lights-out all season, but the loss of Rylie Mills on the defensive line might just hurt their pass rush if they don’t adapt. Without consistent pressure on Howard, their secondary will unquestionably struggle against Ohio State’s playmakers.

The biggest X-factor for the Irish is their mental toughness. You can’t put a price on that. They’ve covered the spread in each of their last 11 games and have a thing for staying competitive in tough matchups and tonight’s CFB Championship is no exception to that rule.

If their defense can hold Ohio State under 20 points, they’ll have a chance to pull off the upset and shock all of us.

Prediction and Best Bet

This matchup pits two elite defenses against each other, but Ohio State’s offensive firepower gives them the edge in this matchup.

While Notre Dame has shown it can control games on the ground, Ohio State’s ability to score quickly and consistently — compounded by their playoff experience — makes them hard to bet against. 

We really wish we could go against the grain on this one, but it’s too stacked.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 17
• Best Bet: Ohio State -8.5

The Buckeyes have covered the spread in all 3 of their playoff games so far, and their defense has proven it can win games even when the offense falls flat.

Notre Dame’s rushing attack might keep things close for a little while, but Ohio State’s depth and big-play ability should ultimately be too much for the Irish to handle.

Now, if you’re looking for a safer play, you might want to take the under 46.5, as both defenses are undeniably capable of limiting big scoring opportunities.