Philadelphia Flyers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets Expert Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet

The Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets face off tonight in a game that looks evenly matched on paper, but we’re thinking there’s more than meets the eye. With both teams fighting to gain ground in the Metropolitan Division, this one could and should be a battle for 2 points.

With the puck dropping at 6:00 PM CST at Nationwide Arena, here’s our analysis and prediction for this showdown in Columbus.

Betting Odds and Insights

The moneyline has Columbus as slight favorites at -115, while Philadelphia comes in at -105. That’s about as even as the odds get when it comes to the moneyline. On the puck line, the Flyers are +1.5 at heavy odds of -250, and the Blue Jackets are -1.5 at just +195.

That’s a decent spread considering their last game was split by a single goal. The total goals are set at 6.5, with the over at -105 and the under at -115 which tells us the bookmakers are thinking this will be a shootout between two powerful offenses.

Public betting trends already favor the Blue Jackets, with 74% of bets overall and 56% of the money backing Columbus on the moneyline. As for the total goals line, 81% of the action is on the over, which isn’t surprising if you look at how these 2 teams played each other so far.

Flyers vs. Blue Jackets Analysis

Philadelphia enters this matchup with a 19-20-5 record and has won 2 straight games. This includes a commanding 6-0 victory over Anaheim and a solid 4-3 win against Florida just last night.

The Flyers rely heavily on their star, Travis Konecny, who leads the team with 50 points spanning 20 goals and 30 assists. However, we should note that their offense has been inconsistent for most of the season as they’re ranking 14th in goals scored and struggling with a 27th-ranked power play at 16.8%.

If they want to be a playoff contender, they’ll need to get that power play efficiency up into the 20% range.

In the net, Samuel Ersson has shown a few flashes of brilliance but carries a mediocre .887 save percentage and 2.87 GAA. Last night didn’t help as he allowed 3 goals on 23 shots for a .870 save percentage. Defensively, the Flyers rank just 29th in goals allowed, which we think could be a liability against Columbus’s recent scoring surge.

Columbus is riding high with a 20-17-6 record and looking to extend their 4-game winning streak to a 5-gamer. This streak includes a 6-2 drubbing of Seattle (though, they’re one of the worst teams in the NHL) and a gritty 2-1 win over St. Louis. 

The big takeaway for the Blue Jackets is that their offense has been clicking. It’s fueled by Kirill Marchenko and his 18 goals and 25 assists and Zach Werenski and his 13 goals and 35 assists. The Blue Jackets’ power play unit comes in at a solid 24.1% which gives them an edge in special teams.

Goaltender Elvis Merzlikins has been steady with a .889 save percentage, though we think his 3.12 GAA is a concern. He is coming off of a game’s worth of rest, so he is coming into tonight’s game fresh.

Columbus is just slightly better than Philadelphia in goals allowed but has been limiting opponents better during their recent stretch of games.

Key Matchup Factors

1. Season Series. The Flyers have won both matchups this season which includes a 5-3 win on December 10 and a thrilling 5-4 OT win on December 21.
2. Recent Form. Columbus has been the hotter team as of late. They’re going 7-2-1 in their last 10 and outscoring opponents by nearly 2 goals per game during that stretch. Philadelphia, on the other hand, has gone 4-5-1 in their last 10, struggling to find the back of the net.
3. Injuries. The Blue Jackets are missing center Sean Monahan, but Philadelphia’s loss of defenseman Ryan Ellis remains a bigger blow to their blue-line stability.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Blue Jackets have been the better team recently. With a more dynamic offense and home-ice advantage, we don’t see the Flyers pulling this one off even though they’ve taken 2 of the games so far. 

Columbus’ ability to score in quick succession, combined with a Flyers defense that ranks near the bottom of the league, makes Columbus easily the more reliable pick. On top of that, Philadelphia has struggled against top-10 power-play units, which we think could prove costly against Columbus’s efficient man advantage.

• Best bet: Columbus Blue Jackets moneyline (-115)

Their form, offensive depth, and power play should carry them to a decisive win during this nationally televised game. For those looking for a totals play, the over 6.5 goals (-105) also offers value, given the offensive output and defensive issues both teams have shown recently.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Blue Jackets 4, Flyers 3