Week eight is typically when we see scores start to drop in the main slate contests on FanDuel and DraftKings, and this week, at least on paper, looks like it will be the lowest-scoring slate to date in 2020. We have six teams on bye this week, and there are only three teams with an implied total of over 26 points.
While we identified the winning Millionaire Maker stack in last week’s article, we went in a different direction with our optimal lineup and came up short. That being said, the formula held up for yet another week. Every winning lineup has at least a QB/WR stack with an opposing RB/WR/TE as well. With that in mind, here are our two favorite stacks that fit that formula for week 8:
Mahomes – Hill – Mims
Carr – Ruggs – Hunt
Over the course of his career, Gruden has proven time-and-time again that he can take the air out of the ball as well as any coach in the league. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland’s defense has been a disaster and they have to know just how hot Carr is.
On top of that, the weather looks like it could be a real issue on Sunday with 25 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 40 mph expected in Cleveland. Both coaches could go run-heavy here, similar to what happened in the Detroit-Atlanta game last week, where both coaches appeared hesitant to play with any tempo and risk overexposing their anemic defense.
So that leaves us with a Mahomes, Hill, and Mims stack… which certainly is not a bad way to start.
Optimal Lineup for Week 8 Main Slate on FanDuel and DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
DraftKings Salary: $8,100 | FanDuel Salary: $9,200 | Yahoo Salary: $39
Only four quarterbacks have won a Millionaire Maker contest this season (Prescott, Wilson, Mahomes, and Ryan). Clearly, you need a QB capable of giving you that 35 point week to have a chance. It’s too hard to get all of the other spots on your roster right.
While he may be the top-ranked QB for this slate on most fantasy websites, I doubt Mahomes ownership gets too high given how well KC has run the ball of late, and how likely a negative game script seems here. Nonetheless, the running game KC put on tape last week should only make Greg Williams’ job that much harder coming into this week.
Kareem Hunt
DraftKings Salary: $6,900 | FanDuel Salary: $8,200 | Yahoo Salary: $30
Kareem Hunt is an absolute no-brainer play this week. He will likely be 30% owned again, but I don’t see how you get away from this play given the matchup and his snap count (90%+). The Raiders run defense has been better as of late, but we think Hunt will decimate them through the air here. Las Vegas is currently giving up 98 rushing YPG and 1.33 rushing TD’s per game to opposing running backs, but are also allowing the second-most receiving yards (62 per game) to RB’s through seven weeks.
Jerrick McKinnon
DraftKings Salary: $5,700 | FanDuel Salary: $6,000 | Yahoo Salary: $16
JaMychael Hasty is getting all the hype heading into this week, but with Deebo Samuel out and George Kittle facing arguably the best TE-defense in the NFL, I think McKinnon’s pass-catching skills are going to be a much-needed asset here. It is also worth noting that by the time Jeff Wilson went out, and Hasty went in, the game was already well in hand for the 49ers last week. If I am going to gamble on what of the SF backs this week it is going to be McKinnon.
The only other RB plays we really love this week are Gio Bernard, Darrell Henderson, and Derrick Henry.
Tyreek Hill
DraftKings Salary: $6,700 | FanDuel Salary: $8,100 | Yahoo Salary: $27
Is there a player more due for a smash game in the NFL than Tyreek Hill? After reaching value seemingly every week for the first four years of his career, Hill has gone over 6 targets only twice this season. The Jets are giving up 260 passing YPG on the season, but that number jumps to over 285 per game over their last three, and they gave up 296 last week to the Bills. In his last game against the Jets Hill racked up over 180 yards and two touchdowns on six catches.
Brandon Aiyuk
DraftKings Salary: $5,800 | FanDuel Salary: $5,900 | Yahoo Salary: $22
Aiyuk, along with Kendrick Bourne, will likely be a popular play this week with Samuel out and a great matchup with the Seahawks. While his projected ownership ranges anywhere from 8-15%, we would be shocked to see him that low. Coming off the best game of his rookie season, Aiyuk should be the focal point of the 49ers passing attack this week, and it seems more than plausible that the 49ers could have to throw more than they would like here.
The Seahawks seem to be in a shootout every week, giving up 29 points per game. While the 49ers defense was great last week against New England, that performance did come just two weeks removed from giving up almost 50 to the Dolphins. If San Francisco is forced to play from behind at any point, Aiyuk should see double-digit targets this week.
Denzel Mims
DraftKings Salary: $3,200 | FanDuel Salary: $4,900 | Yahoo Salary: $12
Mims made his long-awaited debut last week, putting up 4 catches for 42 yards on 7 targets. While those numbers are far from impressive, it is worth noting that half his routes came against Tre’Davious White. With both Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder out this week, Mims is clearly the focal point of a Jets passing attack that will be busy against the Chiefs here in week eight. If nothing else, we know the wide receiver position can be productive in this offense, Crowder is averaging over 22 FPPG on the year.
Josh Reynolds
DraftKings Salary: $3,100 | FanDuel Salary: $5,000 | Yahoo Salary: $11
It feels like we are just throwing darts with the Rams playmakers. Cooper Kupp clearly has the best matchup of the Rams receivers, Nik Needham continues to struggle in the slot for the Dolphins. Additionally, there is a better-than-good chance McVay just leans on his running backs and picks apart a Dolphins defense that gives up 5 yards-per-carry.
All that being said, I really like Reynolds and his matchup with Byron Jones this week. Xavien Howard will likely shadow Robert Woods, Miami has shadowed four receivers already this season. This would leave Reynolds in a very beatable matchup outside. With back-to-back 4x performances, Reynolds has seen his snap share jump to 82% from the 40% of snaps he saw in week one. Look for him to get behind this Dolphins defense at least once in week 8.
Travis Kelce
DraftKings Salary: $6,600 | FanDuel Salary: $7,900 | Yahoo Salary: $27
The tight end position has been brutal on DraftKings all season. The good tight ends are so overpriced they have little-to-no chance at reaching value, and the bad ones are an absolute dumpster fire. We were more than happy with the 5/52 and 3.5x value we got out of Sample last week.
We are all in on a Mahomes banger here, and if that happens it seems highly likely Kelce has multi-touchdown upside. He also has a considerably higher floor than a guy like Jonnu Smith who will likely see over 30% ownership given his price and matchup this week.
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