5 Player Prop Picks for the Thanksgiving NFL Slate
Thanksgiving football is a tradition like no other, and with 3 big games on the slate, there are plenty of betting opportunities to cash in on player prop bets.
We’ve scrapped together five of the best prop picks for the Thanksgiving games, blending data-driven analysis with the current betting lines.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 98.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
- Player Prop Odds: -115
Jahmyr Gibbs has been nothing less than a revelation for the Detroit Lions.
With David Montgomery dealing with his shoulder injury, Gibbs is looking like he’ll continue to be the focal point of the Lions’ offense.
Detroit ranks 4th in the NFL in rushing offense (150.8 yards per game), and Gibbs has been the centerpiece of their ground attack in the last few weeks.
Over his last 4 games, Gibbs has blown through this combined yardage mark 3 times, averaging 116 total yards per game in that span.
The Bears’ defense, meanwhile, has struggled to contain not just elite running backs, but all running backs as they’re giving up big plays on the ground and through the air.
Chicago’s linebackers have been pretty inconsistent in coverage as well, further boosting Gibbs’ upside as a pass-catcher.
We expect Gibbs to take advantage of a good matchup and hit the over on this prop bet.
Malik Nabers Over 64.5 Receiving Yards
- Player Prop Odds: -120
The Dallas Cowboys secondary has been extremely vulnerable this season which means Malik Nabers is in a great position to take advantage of it.
The Giants’ rookie receiver has come out as Tommy DeVito’s top target, leading the team in receptions (67) and receiving yards (671). He’s cleared 64.5 yards in 3 of his last 4 games and has consistently shown he has what it takes to make explosive plays.
The Cowboys have allowed an average of 245 passing yards per game in their last 3 games which ranks them among the league’s bottom third in pass defense over that span. That’s why we love this bet.
Nabers’ ability to rack up yards after the catch makes this prop an easy win for your bet slip.
Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Player Prop Odds: +125
Jordan Love has been quietly productive in recent weeks. He’s thrown for multiple TDs in 3 of his last 4 games and we don’t think he’ll slow down on Thanksgiving. After all, he’s owed a turkey leg that he didn’t get last year so he’s hungry.
The Miami Dolphins have a strong run defense but have been fairly susceptible through the air. They’ve given up 20 passing TDs this season which makes them very vulnerable.
With the Packers likely leaning on Love in this critical Thanksgiving game, we expect him to take advantage of the Dolphins’ secondary.
Green Bay’s offense has been heating up as of late, and Love’s chemistry with his receivers, especially in the red zone, makes this plus-money prop even more appealing.
D’Andre Swift Under 46.5 Rushing Yards
- Player Prop Odds: -115
D’Andre Swift is a talented back and nobody is questioning that. However, this line feels a bit high given the context of this game.
The Bears’ run defense has been somewhat stout this season, allowing just 89.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks second in the league. Given the Bears record, you probably didn’t see that coming. Additionally, Swift’s role in the Eagles’ backfield has fluctuated over the last few weeks, and his usage as a rusher has been somewhat inconsistent.
In his last 3 games, Swift has failed to hit this mark twice, averaging just 38 rushing yards per game. Of course, he’s a great RB, but this just doesn’t feel right. With the Lions likely to key in on limiting Swift’s impact and the Bears leaning on the passing game, the under is the better bet here.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 Receptions
- Player Prop Odds: +100
Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be one of the most reliable targets in the league. He’s dominant downfield where he thrives in explosive plays.
The Lions’ wideout has cleared 6.5 receptions in 8 of his last 10 games, making this plus-money prop worth loading onto your bet slip. Jared Goff has been laser-focused on St. Brown, especially in big play situations, as shown by his 10+ targets in 4 straight games.
The Bears’ secondary has been fairly porous compared to their run defense, allowing the fifth-most receptions to wide receivers this season. That’s where the Lions will take advantage of the Bears.
St. Brown’s ability to find soft spots in zone coverage and his knack for racking up short-to-intermediate yardage make this prop one of the best plays of the day as you gobble down some turkey.
Get These Prop Bets On Your Bet Slip Now!
The Thanksgiving slate offers a mix of star power and excellent matchups. These 5 prop bets provide value in different ways and will surely build your bankroll.
Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are set to thrive in very favorable matchups, while Jordan Love offers great upside at plus odds on the TDs. On the flip side, fading D’Andre Swift is a smart play, and Malik Nabers has the tools to torch the Cowboys’ defense.
Be sure to lock in your bets before you get too lost in your Thanksgiving festivities.
Matt Brown
Head of Sports Betting and DFS
Matt’s love for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, coupled with a deep understanding of football, hockey, and baseball, shapes his innovative thoughts on Hello Rookie. He has a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management.
