4 College Football Best Bets for Saturday, October 12: Follow or Fade LSU?

Ready for the Week 7 college football card? We can help! Our industry insider has 4 best bets on tap for Saturday, October 12.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Oregon Ducks

The most anticipated game of the day will take place at Autzen Stadium in Eugene when the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes take on the #3 Oregon Ducks. OSU has ripped through the early portion of their schedule by winning every game by an average of 33ppg.

They rank 10th in the country in total yards per game (510.2) and 12th on 3rd down percentage (51.7%). Will Howard has done a nice job taking over under center this season. He is averaging almost 250 yards per game and completing over 71% and has thrown 12 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions.

The Ducks have had a not so easy time in their 1st portion of the schedule, despite remaining undefeated. They struggled against Idaho in the opener and almost lost to Boise the following week. Last week, they took care of Michigan State 31-10.

Dillon Gabriel has been using his dual threat ability to help this Duck offense. He is averaging nearly 300 yards per game through the air and has thrown for 11 touchdowns while running for another 3. Tez Johnson has been his top target with 43 receptions, 395 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Best Bet: Ohio State -3

While this will be the 1st true test for both teams, we believe the Buckeyes are the more complete team heading into this matchup. Their defense is 5th against the run and 3rd against the pass.

They can make Gabriel uncomfortable in the pocket and the athletes to track him down if he decides to scramble. Ohio State will show the country that Oregon is not worthy of their top 5 ranking here.

Key Trends:

• OSU is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
• OSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in October.
• Oregon is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
• Oregon is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games at home.

Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners

The top ranked Texas Longhorns benefited from Alabama losing to Vanderbilt last week and thus relinquishing the #1 ranking. This week, they head to Dallas to play the Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl. Texas is 5-0 with their latest win coming over Mississippi St 35-13.

They are coming off a bye which allowed Quinn Ewers an extra week to recover and signs point to him regaining his starting position over Arch Manning this week. Manning was good in his stead, connecting on over 70% of his passes and averaging 225 yards per game through the air while tossing 9 touchdowns to just2 interceptions.

The Sooners, now 4-1, are also coming off a bye week. They previously bounced back with a tough fought win over Auburn 27-21 which was needed after losing to then #6 Tennessee 25-15. In the Auburn game, they found themselves trailing 21-10 early in the 4th quarter. Both sides of the ball stepped up and were able to pull off the comeback victory.

This is always one of the best games of the season when these teams meet, no matter the rankings in the polls. Add the fact that Texas is #1 and Oklahoma is in the top 20 and we have added pressure on both programs.

Interesting to note, Texas will face #5 Georgia next week which against a weaker opponent here, could have some lookahead potential, but in this rivalry game, all Texas focus will be on the Sooners. We believe this game is going to come down to defense.

Best Bet: Texas -14

Texas holds the advantage there and is #2 in the country against the pass. We like the Longhorns to shut down the Sooner’s offensive attack and pull away from them in the 2nd half.

Oklahoma has won 5 of the last 6 and 11 of the last 15 Red River Rivalry games, Texas is going to make a statement here. Lay the points with confidence!

Key Trends:

• Texas is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
• Texas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season.
• Texas is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing as the favorite.

Mississippi Rebels vs LSU Tigers

Ole Miss cracked the top 10 with several top teams losing last week. For the Rebels, they took care of the Gamecocks on the road in South Carolina last week in impressive fashion. They held them to just 160 yards through the air and allowed just 5 first downs on 16 3rd down attempts.

They also got to QB Lanorris Sellers 6 times for sacks. The offense was a balanced attack that finished with 285 yards passing to go with 140 yards rushing. After this game, the Rebels will have a bye before taking on #16 Oklahoma at home the following week.

The Tigers have turned things around after their ugly opening loss to USC. They have since won 4 straight games, albeit over some very weak competition. Last week they were on a bye which should have given Brian Kelly and his staff plenty of time to prepare the Tigers for what could be the most important game of the season, outside of the meeting with Alabama scheduled in early November.

Garrett Nussmeier has been stellar this season. He is averaging over 330 yards passing per game and has thrown 15 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. He has connected for double digit receptions with 5 different receivers and 7 different receivers have caught touchdown passes to this point.

Best Bet: LSU +3.5 

This Ole Miss team had a tough time in their loss to Kentucky trying to run the ball. Kentucky is currently 7th in the country while this LSU team is 28th against the run, which should be a concern for Lane Kiffin and staff.

We expect the Tigers to scheme well enough to stifle the run game of Ole Miss and Nussmeier to light up their secondary for a Tigers home win at night.

Key Trends:

• Ole Miss is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LSU.
• LSU is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home.
• LSU is 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in week 7.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs USC Trojans

#4 Penn State will take on the unranked USC Trojans for the 1st time since USC joined the Big 10. Michigan handed USC their 1st loss of the season when they began Big 10 play but bounced back with defeating Wisconsin 38-21.

However, their 24-17 loss to Minnesota knocked them out of the top 25 and now USC is scrambling to find their footing once again. They allowed almost 200 yards on the ground to Minnesota and almost 300 yards on the ground to Michigan. They will need to be better against the run against this PSU team that is 28th in the country with 217.8 yards per game on the ground.

PSU is 5-0 and while they are now a top 5 team, their last 2 wins were not extremely impressive. They defeated then #19 Illinois 21-7 at home but only held a 1 score lead for majority of the game.

Last week they beat a weak UCLA 27-11, albeit 27-3 before a late touchdown score from UCLA. PSU is a top 10 defense against the pass and the rush. They stymy offenses and lean on their strong run game to break down opposing defenses.

Both teams are converting over 50% while on 3rd down. They each have the ability to keep drives alive and extend the opposing defenses time on the field. However, only one defense has been able to force teams into lower percentages on 3rd down.

Best Bet: USC +5

The Trojans rank 6th in the country, holding teams to just a 26.32% 3rd down conversion rate. We believe that will be key in a game that should be kept within a score down the stretch.

Give us the Trojans at home with the points and a small sprinkle on the moneyline. Miller Moss and his receivers will simply be too much in this one!