It was yet another big week for those betting unders in the NFL, as 10 of 14 games went under the point total. For the 2022 season, NFL unders are cashing at a 58.5% rate for a total of 55-39 through six weeks of game action. Underdogs in the NFL split the 14 games that took place in Week 6, going 7-7 for a season-long record of 52-39-2 this season.
Last week’s best bets went 2-2, and unsurprisingly both of our wins were under plays in the early games. Carolina and Kansas City failed to cover as underdogs to account for our two losses.
Our season-long best bet record now stands at 10-10 through six weeks, and we head into Week 7 looking to put some distance between ourselves and the vig.
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New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars -3
Best Available Odds: -110 at PointsBet
The Jags being billed as a field goal favorite at home, despite a less than stellar home-field advantage, does not measure up with any of the stats from the first six weeks. Jacksonville has a 1.1 net yards per play advantage to the Giants and is rated by ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) as 3.2 points better than New York.
From a numbers standpoint, this line feels off by at least a point or two. We’ll take the number while it’s at three and run. The Giants’ luck has to run out at some point, right?
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens: UNDER 46
Best Available Odds: -110 at DraftKings
Dating back to the last 10 years of matchups between these two teams, the points scored went under 45.5 points 13 out of 20 times. When you shrink that sample size down to the last five years, it becomes a 5-5 split meaning that the trend is beginning to shift.
Both of these two teams allow a lot of yards and points, but interestingly both are run-first on offense and Cleveland is second in the NFL in time of possession in 2022. With the ground game being the focus, we look for the clock to be running nonstop in this one to limit scoring overall.
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders +5.5
Best Available Odds: -107 at PointsBet
Many would argue, including the head coach of Washington, that the quarterback position has been what’s separating this team from their full potential and the rest of their division rivals in 2022. Taylor Heinicke now arrives just in time to throw the Packers’ game plan for a loop. Heinicke was serviceable last season as the full-time starter, and his QB rating and QBR were both slightly higher than Wentz’s 2022 performance.
Aaron Rodgers has only won in Washington once in three tries, with the lone victory happening in a January 2016 playoff game. After struggling against both New York teams in back-to-back weeks, Rodgers and Green Bay will need to deal with a team on the road that ranks 4th in sacks and third in QB pressure rate this season.
Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ Tennessee Titans
Best Available Odds: +100 at BetMGM
The Colts are another team that look better statistically than their opponent but is not being measured as such by the sportsbooks. Tennessee is allowing the second most yards per play among all NFL teams and is 1.2 net yards per play worse than Indy.
The Colts defense is in the top half of teams by that same measure, which they’ll need to live up to offset the potential continued absence of their top two running backs. The Colts win a close one in this AFC South matchup.