Sunday Night Football rolls into Empower Field at Mile High as the Los Angeles Rams (1-1) travel to face the Denver Broncos (1-1) at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. Both teams are coming off very different performances through two weeks, but the quarterback matchup is what makes this one worth digging into for prop bettors. Matthew Stafford has looked sharp and protected behind a Rams offensive line that’s held up well, while Bo Nix is dealing with real pressure problems against a defense that’s about to test him even more.

With altitude, a top-tier Denver pass defense, and a Rams receiving corps missing its top target, this game sets up some genuinely interesting number crunching on the passing props. Here are three QB passing bets worth a look before kickoff.

Matthew Stafford Stays Efficient, But Denver’s Defense Is No Joke

Stafford has been excellent through two games, completing 66.1% of his throws for 482 yards (241 yards per game), four touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He’s also barely been touched, getting sacked only once all season. Last week against the Giants, the Rams’ protection was elite — Stafford was pressured on just 3 of 22 dropbacks in the 28-6 win, and he made Big Blue pay with 327 yards and four scores.

The catch here is Denver. The Broncos have not allowed a quarterback to throw for 200 yards against them all season, and their overall QB rating allowed sits near the bottom of the league in the best possible way for the defense. That’s a legitimately stingy secondary, and it’s a much different animal than the Giants’ pass defense Stafford carved up last week.

Add in that Puka Nacua is doubtful with a hip injury and will likely sit for a second straight game, leaving Davante Adams as the clear No. 1 target with a rotating cast behind him, and there’s real reason to expect a lower-volume, more conservative approach from the Rams’ passing attack on the road. The under on Stafford’s passing yards number sitting right around 243.5 lines up with both the matchup difficulty and the beat-up receiver room.

Bo Nix Faces a Rams Defense That Knows How to Get Home

Nix’s numbers look respectable on the surface — 66.1% completion, 419 yards through two games (209.5 per game), two touchdowns and two picks — but the tape tells a different story. He’s already been sacked four times this season, and when defenses get after him, the results have been ugly: Nix owns the NFL’s worst EPA per dropback under pressure at -1.18. That’s not a small sample fluke; it’s a legitimate red flag for a young quarterback still working through his second full season as a starter.

The Rams showed last week they can generate exactly that kind of pressure, limiting the Giants to almost nothing through the air by getting home consistently. If Los Angeles’ front can replicate that against Denver’s line, Nix could be in for another uncomfortable Sunday night. His passing yardage props are hovering in that 210-220 range depending on the book, and given how poorly he performs once he starts feeling heat, there’s a real case for the under here even with the friendly split total on the board.

Stafford’s Touchdown Rate Has Been Sky-High

Zoom out on Stafford’s start to the season and one number stands out above the rest: four touchdown passes through just two games, highlighted by that four-TD outburst against the Giants last week where he spread it around to Davante Adams twice, Kyren Williams, and Terrance Ferguson. That’s a quarterback playing with real command of the offense and finding different weapons in the red zone.

Even with Nacua likely out again, Stafford has shown he doesn’t need his top receiver to hit paydirt multiple times in a game — McVay’s scheme has created touchdown opportunities for backs and tight ends just as easily as the traditional wideouts. Against a Denver defense that’s been tough on yardage but can still be had in the red zone, the over on Stafford’s passing touchdowns sitting at 1.5 is a number that’s lined up well with his early-season role as this offense’s primary touchdown weapon.

Locking In the Numbers for Sunday Night

This SNF matchup is a fascinating study in contrasts — an efficient, well-protected veteran against a defense that hasn’t let anyone breathe, and a talented but pressure-prone young quarterback about to face a defense that knows how to make life difficult. Here’s how the picks line up.

Denver’s defense and the absence of Nacua make the yardage unders the safer plays here, while Stafford’s touchdown role remains the one part of the Rams’ passing attack that looks locked in no matter who’s catching the ball. Check the latest live NFL odds before locking in your bets, and if you’re new to legal betting, a DraftKings promo code is a solid way to get started for Sunday night’s action.