3 QB Passing Props to Back for Falcons vs Saints on MNF

Monday Night Football brings an NFC South grudge match to the Caesars Superdome as the Atlanta Falcons travel to face the New Orleans Saints, with kickoff set for 8:15 PM ET on ESPN. New Orleans opened as a 2.5-point home favorite with the total sitting at 45.5, but the real story under the hood is a pair of quarterbacks pushing the ball downfield in bunches. Michael Penix Jr. is back for Atlanta after missing time, and Tyler Shough has quietly turned into one of the most productive young arms in football for New Orleans.

Both signal-callers have shown they can hit these passing numbers, and the matchup context makes all three of the following props worth a hard look heading into Monday night.

Michael Penix Jr. Is Airing It Out Against a Defense That Lets Teams Do Exactly That

Penix made his 2026 season debut last Thursday against Green Bay and looked every bit like the quarterback Atlanta hoped it was getting, completing 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards, a touchdown and a passer rating of 101.4 in a 35-14 win. That performance came on a short week, and now he gets a Saints defense that has allowed 229.7 passing yards per game through three weeks, good for one of the more generous marks in the league, including 248 yards through the air to Las Vegas just last week.

You can check the latest live NFL odds before kickoff, but books have Penix’s passing yardage prop anywhere from 219.5 to 257.5 depending on the shop, reflecting some disagreement on how much volume he’ll see as a road underdog. That split matters: road underdogs with functioning passing games tend to throw more, not less, as they chase points. Penix’s chemistry with Drake London has also been excellent, with London posting a nine-catch, 194-yard outing last week alone, which signals Atlanta is comfortable letting Penix push the ball to his top target early and often.

If you’re looking to get a number down on this one, a quick look at Caesars Sportsbook or another major book can help you compare the full range of lines. Across his nine starts in 2025, Penix averaged 220.2 yards per game, so even his career norm sits right around the lower end of this week’s number. Given the uptick in volume last week and a Saints defense that’s been carved up through the air, there’s real value on the Over at the lower lines in that 219.5-224.5 range.

Tyler Shough Has Been a Volume Machine All Season

If Penix is the story everyone’s talking about, Shough might be the better bet. The second-year Saints quarterback is averaging a gaudy 305.7 passing yards per game through three starts in 2026, with a 410-yard outburst against Detroit, 252 yards against Baltimore, and 255 yards with four touchdowns last week in a shootout loss to the Raiders. He’s completing 68.9% of his throws and has racked up eight touchdown passes already.

His passing yards prop sits at 254.5 for this matchup, essentially right at his season average, but there’s a case for the Over given the game environment. Atlanta’s defense has had its own struggles, and with a 45.5 total signaling both offenses are expected to score, New Orleans figures to keep leaning on Shough’s right arm rather than grinding it out on the ground, especially with protection issues up front that have shown up in some of his turnover numbers. Shough has hit 252-plus yards in all three of his starts this season, a strong signal he clears this number again on Monday night.

Penix’s Touchdown Prop Offers Value in Both Directions

The Penix passing touchdowns prop is set at 1.5, with pricing moving between +135 and -153 depending on the side and the book, and both directions carry an argument. Penix threw exactly one touchdown pass in his season debut against Green Bay, so the Under has recent precedent. But that outing came on a short week against a divisional opponent with far less time to prepare, and Atlanta’s full offensive operation — London, Bijan Robinson, and a banged-up but functional receiving corps — looked dangerous in flashes.

Against a Saints defense that has already allowed multiple multi-touchdown passing days this season, including giving up three scoring strikes to Las Vegas, the Over at plus-money is the more interesting side of this number. Atlanta should be without the short-week disadvantage this time around, and a game script that likely features both teams trading scores in a shootout favors Penix finding the end zone at least twice.

Best Bets for Falcons-Saints Monday Night Football

This game is shaping up as a shootout between two quarterbacks who’ve shown they can move the ball through the air, and the props reflect it. Here are the three plays to target heading into kickoff.

• Michael Penix Jr. Passing Yards OVER 224.5 (varies by book, shop for the lower line)
• Tyler Shough Passing Yards OVER 254.5
• Michael Penix Jr. Passing TDs OVER 1.5 (+135 depending on book)

With a 45.5 total and two quarterbacks trending up, betting the through-the-air production from both sides of this NFC South rivalry is the smartest way to attack Monday night.