After splitting a pair of MLB props on Friday, we’re ready to roll with a new week. Yusei Kikuchi easily went over his strikeout prop, but Lance Lynn fell just short of cashing our ticket. It was frustrating because Big Boy Lance got a ton of 2-strike counts.
Oh well, it’s time to shake it off and start finding some more Ws! Here are 3 MLB PrizePicks props for Monday, July 24. Let’s ride!
Luis Castillo OVER 7 Strikeouts
There’s no need to overthink this one. Castillo just pitched against Minnesota 5 days ago, and he struck out 11 hitters. There’s no reason to think that tonight will be any different, especially since the Twins have 6 hitters with a K-rate of 24.9% or higher.
Heck, 3 of those Minnesota hitters have strikeout rates of 31.7% or higher. Joey Gallo, Michael Taylor, and Byron Buxton are each capable of fanning several times against a true ace like Castillo.
Castillo may be 30 years old, but he’s at the top of his game. His whiff rate of 32.2% ranks in the 89th percentile of MLB. Look for him to work that slider to his advantage in this one.
Kenta Maeda OVER 6 Strikeouts
Maeda doesn’t have a great ERA this season, but he’s struck out 50 hitters in only 42.1 innings of work. He has a nasty splitter that keeps hitters off balance, and his slider isn’t too bad, either.
Maeda racked up 9 strikeouts against this Seattle team on July 19th. The 35-year-old from Japan has finished with 6 or more Ks in 4 out of his last 5 starts.
Seattle has struck out 26% of the time this year. The M’s also have the third worst K-rate in the month of July. This one should be another easy Over!
Jon Gray UNDER 5 Strikeouts
Gray is having a fine season for Texas, and he does a great job of missing barrels. However, the 31-year-old righty has never been a huge strikeout pitcher. He’s only fanned 83 batters in 103.1 innings in 2023.
Why else do we like this Under? Gray will be going up against Houston, who doesn’t strike out very often as a team. The Astros have the 4th lowest K-rate this season at only 20.7%.
Looking at Houston’s lineup more in-depth gives us more confidence in the Under. Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Mauricio Dubon, and Yainer Diaz all strike out less than 19.1% of the time. Gray has faced Houston twice this year and has only racked up 6 total strikeouts against them. Play the Under!
