Four NHL games on Wednesday night, and the shot totals are where the value is hiding. Shots on goal are one of the easiest props to understand: a player either puts the puck on net or he doesn’t, and the best candidates combine heavy ice time, a shoot-first mindset and a role on the power play.

Below are three shots on goal props from the Philadelphia-Washington, Calgary-Edmonton and Toronto-Seattle games. Each one comes with the numbers behind it, so you can see exactly why the line looks beatable. All odds below are from FanDuel at the time of writing, so check your book before you bet.

William Nylander 3+ Shots on Goal (-130)

Nylander is the hottest skater on the board. The Toronto winger has a point in five straight games, and he scored again in Monday’s 5-2 loss in Calgary on four shots. Over his last five games he has four goals and 13 shots on goal, and he has recorded three or more shots in seven of his last 10 outings.

The season-long picture backs it up. Through 14 games Nylander has nine goals and 10 assists on 41 shots, a clip of roughly 2.9 per game. He skates almost 20 minutes a night, including more than three minutes on the power play, where he lines up alongside Auston Matthews. More time with the man advantage means more clean looks at the net.

The matchup is a friendly one. Toronto is in Seattle for a 10:00 PM ET start, and the Kraken have gone over 5.5 total goals in five straight games, which tells you this is a game that leans toward open play and plenty of shots. At -130 you are paying a small tax for a player who has been clearing this number about 70 percent of the time lately.

Mikael Backlund OVER 1.5 Shots on Goal (-160)

This is the lowest bar on the board, and that is exactly why it works. Backlund, Calgary’s veteran center, only needs two shots to cash this one. He has 25 shots on net in nine games this season, which works out to about 2.8 a night, and he has averaged more than 200 shots a year over the past four seasons, so putting the puck on net is a long-standing habit.

He is coming off a two-game absence with an upper-body injury, but he returned Monday against Toronto and scored a goal, so the health concern appears to be behind him. Over the last three seasons he has taken 29 shots in 11 games against Edmonton, an average of about 2.6 per meeting.

The MatchWiz model puts the over at 62.9 percent, and independent shot projections also give him better than a 60 percent chance of at least two shots. The price of -160 is steep, but you are buying a high-probability result on a low line.

Jakob Chychrun OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal (-122)

Defensemen who shoot a lot and play huge minutes are a good way to find shots props, and Chychrun is one of the best. The Washington blueliner averages 24:40 of ice time a game and has 31 shots on goal through 10 games, or 3.1 per game. That is already above the 2.5 line.

His recent log shows how high his ceiling is. He had eight shots against Seattle on October 11, six against the Kings on October 20 and four against Buffalo on Saturday. He also gets power-play time on a unit with Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson and Dylan Strome, which keeps him involved in the offense.

The matchup is a home game against a Philadelphia team that is 3-7 on the season. When Washington is controlling a game, a top-pair defenseman usually gets plenty of chances to fire from the point. MatchWiz projects 2.65 shots for him, which sits above the line, and -122 is a reasonable price for that edge.

Lock These In

All three players have a clear path to their number tonight: heavy minutes, power-play time and a recent run of putting the puck on net. If you want to size your stakes before you bet, our betting calculator shows the payout on each pick, and you can compare prices across books on the live NHL odds page.

Shots props are never guaranteed, so bet only what you can afford to lose and take a look at our responsible gambling resources if you need them.