3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on November 9

Monday’s NHL card is short but spicy: three Eastern teams are flying west to face three Pacific Division opponents, with the Rangers at the Oilers at 8:00 p.m. ET, the Flyers at the Canucks at 9:30 p.m. ET and the Islanders at the Sharks at 10:00 p.m. ET. A small slate is the perfect place to hunt shots on goal props, because shot volume is one of the most stable things in hockey and the numbers on the board do not always keep up.

Shots on goal are easier to understand than goals or points. A player who gets the puck on net three or four times a night is going to cash overs often, even if the pucks do not go in. Here are three shot props that fit that mold, and the reasoning behind each one.

Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 Shots on Goal

Pavel Dorofeyev (No. 16) is the Rangers’ right wing with a shoot-first habit, and this is a game where that matters. He is averaging 2.8 shots per game across 18 games this season, and 2.6 over his last 15. Against Edmonton specifically, he has averaged 3.2 shots in five meetings. That is a healthy cushion over a 2.5 line.

The price is fair for a play like this. Dorofeyev’s over 2.5 has been showing around -104 to -114 depending on the book, so check yours before you bet. A projection of roughly 2.7 shots, along with around 0.4 goals per game, tells you the model sees a player who is comfortably above the number rather than sitting right on it.

The game script helps too. Edmonton is a -154 favorite at home with a total of 6.5, and when a team trails or chases, shots tend to pile up. If you want a place to shop the price, our live NHL odds page is a good way to compare numbers across books before you lock this one in.

Simon Holmstrom Over 1.5 Shots on Goal

Simon Holmstrom is the kind of prop that looks boring until you check how often it hits. The Islanders winger has cleared 1.5 shots in eight of his last 10 games and in all five of his last five. He has recorded two or more shots in recent games against Carolina, Edmonton, Minnesota, Nashville and Dallas, so this is a steady pattern and not a one-night spike.

The best available price is -159 at Caesars, which is steep, but the hit rate justifies the juice. Holmstrom is also in a premium spot in the lineup: he is projected on the first line with Bo Horvat and Kyle Palmieri, and he sits on the first power-play unit alongside Horvat, Brayden Schenn, Victor Eklund and Matthew Schaefer. More ice time with better linemates means more chances to shoot.

New York comes in at 7-6-3 and San Jose is 7-11-1 and has lost five straight, including a 4-3 loss in Dallas on Saturday. The Islanders are -135 on the moneyline at DraftKings as of Monday morning. Teams in that position tend to carry the play, and Holmstrom’s role puts him in the middle of it.

Macklin Celebrini Over 2.5 or 3.5 Shots on Goal

Macklin Celebrini (No. 71) is the Sharks’ captain and the engine of the offense, and he fires the puck relentlessly. He has racked up roughly 71 shots over his last 16 to 18 games, with seven goals and 21 points in that stretch. In his most recent game he put six shots on net in a 4-3 loss to the Stars, adding three assists along the way.

The shot-volume projections are bullish. One model has him at about 3.7 expected shots on goal, with a 68% chance of three or more shots and a 49% chance of four or more. Another source pegs the chance of 3+ shots at 66%. The over 3.5 has been showing at -130 on ESPN’s board, so the choice between 2.5 and 3.5 comes down to how much risk you want. Take the 2.5 for a safer cash, or the 3.5 if you want a better price and trust the volume.

He also skates between Michael Misa and Will Smith on the top line and works the first power-play unit, so the touches are not going anywhere. Ilya Sorokin is expected in net for the Islanders with a .911 save percentage, a good goalie but not one who can stop a shot from being taken. We are betting on volume, and Celebrini has plenty of it. If you are new to how these markets work, our state-by-state sports betting guide will show you where you can play legally.

Lock In These Shot Props

Shot props reward patience and process. All three of these players are fixtures in their teams’ top lineups, all three have shown a consistent ability to put the puck on net, and none of them need to score to cash. Double-check the lines at your book before you bet, as numbers move through the day.

• Pavel Dorofeyev OVER 2.5 shots on goal (around -104 to -114, check your book)
• Simon Holmstrom OVER 1.5 shots on goal (-159 at Caesars)
• Macklin Celebrini OVER 2.5 or 3.5 shots on goal (3.5 around -130, check your book)

Three shooters, three clear paths to a win, and no need for a single goal. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.