3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on November 6

Friday’s NHL board is a short one, just three games, which means every prop on the card gets a little more attention than usual. Shots on goal is one of the friendliest markets for newer bettors because it does not rely on a puck bouncing in. If a player gets enough ice time and enough looks, the shot total takes care of itself.

Below are three shots on goal plays for tonight, each tied to a clear reason: heavy minutes, power play time, and matchups against teams that give up a lot. Check your book for the current number before you bet, since lines can move as puck drop gets closer.

Zach Werenski Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: Workhorse D-Man at Buffalo

Werenski is one of the few defensemen who can reliably clear a 2.5 shots number. He is logging 28:30 a night and has 36 shots on goal through 13 games, which works out to about 2.8 per game. That puts him above the line on average, and he does it while running the top power play unit, where the point shot is a built-in volume source.

The workload also matters tonight. Columbus is playing the second half of a back-to-back, and when a team is tired, coaches lean harder on their best defenseman rather than less. Werenski has also been creating plenty for others, with 12 assists, so opponents have to respect his passing, which can open a lane for his own shot.

DraftKings has the over at -140, with Dimers giving it a 66.6 percent chance, an 8.2 percent edge over the implied price. It is not a plus-money play, but a defenseman who sees this much ice time is about as steady as shot props get. Columbus visits Buffalo at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Tyler Toffoli Over 1.5 Shots on Goal: A Shooter Facing a Wall That Cracks

Toffoli’s 1.5 line is low on purpose. He has 36 shots in 17 games, about 2.1 per game, and he is a natural shooter who goes where the puck is. Of his nine points this season, three of his four goals have come on the power play, so when San Jose gets a man advantage he is in the right spot to fire away.

The one blemish is his last outing. He finished with a single shot against Los Angeles on Wednesday, and that is the kind of result that tends to shade a line up or down. A single quiet night does not change a season-long rate that sits above this number.

San Jose heads to Minnesota for an 8:00 p.m. ET start. The Wild allow a league-best 2.24 goals per game, so this is not a shootout. But a stingy team does not mean fewer shots against a Sharks club that allows 3.53 goals a night and is often chasing the game. Trailing teams shoot more. DraftKings lists the over at -145, and Dimers puts the chance at 65.0 percent.

Cutter Gauthier Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: The Hottest Shooter on the Slate

This is the most aggressive line of the three, and for good reason. Gauthier has 59 shots on goal and 10 goals through 14 games, and he has gone over 3.5 shots in 10 of those games. Across his last 10, he has averaged 3.4 shots per game, and his last time out against Vancouver he scored three goals, two on the power play, on six shots in a 5-4 win.

The matchup helps. Anaheim’s power play is clicking at 36.2 percent, second in the league, and Calgary has been charged with plenty of penalties, taking 3.13 shorthanded situations per game. Calgary also sits 24th in goals against at 3.44, and Anaheim ranks 30th at 3.81, which points to an open game where both sides trade chances. The Ducks have scored three or more in six straight games.

Lines have been posted at 3.5 for Gauthier, with the over around -140 at DraftKings in recent games. Double check the number for tonight, since that is the line this pick is built on. Anaheim visits Calgary at 8:00 p.m. ET. If your book posts 2.5, that is the same read with a much easier bar.

Lock These In: Friday’s Shots on Goal Card

All three plays share the same engine: heavy minutes, power play opportunities, and teams that give up chances. Here are the plays for Friday, November 6. Odds are from DraftKings where noted, so check your book for the best price. Newer bettors can also run the numbers with a betting calculator before sizing a wager.

• Zach Werenski OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-140 at DraftKings)
• Tyler Toffoli OVER 1.5 shots on goal (-145 at DraftKings)
• Cutter Gauthier OVER 3.5 shots on goal (check your book for tonight’s number)

Shots props reward patience and volume, not luck. Pick players who are on the ice a lot, shoot a lot, and face teams that let them, then let the math work.