With the end of the college football regular season happening last Saturday, the NFL has done football fans the favor of moving three games to Saturday so that our insatiable appetite for live games doesn’t go unfulfilled.
The Colts will meet the Vikings in Minnesota to kick off the slate as 4-point underdogs. That’s followed by Cleveland hosting Baltimore as a narrow field goal favorite before we wrap up the day’s action with a primetime showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is around a touchdown favorite as of Thursday afternoon.
We look to sweeten the pot on these three games with a batch of player props after finishing Week 14 with a 2-1 record in that department. Here are this Saturday’s best prop bets.
Kirk Cousins UNDER 1.5 Touchdown Passes
Best Available Odds: +110 at BetMGM
Indianapolis has not found many areas of consistent performance within their locker room or coaching staff this season, but one thing they do well is defending against the pass. They rank third in passing defense this season and allow 99 fewer yards per game than their Week 15 opponents in Minnesota.
The Colts have allowed teams to throw multiple touchdown passes just twice in their last nine games and only five times this season. While this is the Vikings’ strength on offense, running back Dalvin Cook has vultured some red zone touchdowns lately and scored in each of the last two weeks.
We project Cousins will join a list of others who haven’t thrown for more than one touchdown against Indy this season.
Nick Chubb UNDER 74.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings
This matchup poses a problem for the Browns as they try to get their quarterback up to speed late in the year. Cleveland would normally be able to lean on their top-5 ranked running game to do so, but this week is an exception.
Baltimore’s defense hasn’t been as stifling in 2022 as they’ve been for most of the last two decades, but they have the second-best run-stopping unit in the NFL this season (81 yards/game allowed).
Since the acquisition of Roquan Smith at the end of October, Baltimore hasn’t allowed a team to hit the 90-yard rushing mark in those five games. Chubb racked up 91 yards on 16 carries in their earlier matchup this season but will struggle in the rematch for a Browns team that’s won just three of their last 10 games.
Josh Allen UNDER 236.5 Passing Yards
Best Available Odds: -114 at FanDuel
December football in Buffalo, does it get much better? The forecast for Sunday evening’s AFC East matchup includes 15 mph winds and a strong probability of snow with temperatures in the low 20s.
Normally there is a bias to play on teams and players who are at home in these situations because somehow they’re supposed to be more adapted to the conditions. We think otherwise.
In seven December and January regular season home games in which Allen has played all of the snaps since 2019, he’s averaged 189 passing yards per game and completed less than 55% of his pass attempts.
Miami’s defense has not been particularly strong against high-volume passing teams in 2022, but the circumstances dictate that this is the play on Sunday evening. Take Allen’s under in the Bills’ attempt to avenge an earlier season loss to the Dolphins.