Week 3 of the NFL season is loaded with marquee quarterback matchups, and if you’re looking for an edge in the passing prop markets, Sunday’s slate is a great place to find it. Three signal-callers stand out for very different reasons: one is playing at an MVP level against a defense missing key pieces, one just set a franchise record and travels to a neutral site against a beat-up secondary, and one gets a dome environment and a defense that’s been torched through two weeks.

These three passing prop plays are backed by real early-season production and matchup data, not just gut feel. Here’s the breakdown on each, and why the numbers support betting the over.

Josh Allen Is Playing Video Game Football

Josh Allen has been the best quarterback in football through two weeks, and it isn’t particularly close. The Bills’ #17 has thrown for 582 yards, 5 touchdowns, and zero interceptions across his first two starts, an average of 291 yards per game. When Buffalo hosts the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET, the market has Allen’s passing yards line set right around 238.5 to 239.5 (books range from 238.5 at FanDuel to 241.5 at BetMGM), with the over sitting close to even money at most shops.

The matchup favors him clearing that number. The Chargers defense ranked middle-of-the-pack a year ago in yards allowed per play and has now been hit with injuries at a key spot — tight end Marcus Njoku is on injured reserve and Sam Kolar has already been ruled out for this game, thinning a defense that has to account for Buffalo’s full arsenal of pass catchers. Allen doesn’t need a career day to clear 238.5; he’s averaged nearly 50 yards more than that per game so far, and Buffalo’s offense has shown no signs of slowing down.

Dak Prescott Traveling to Rio With the Highest Line on the Board

The Cowboys and Ravens meet in a rare international matchup at Maracanã Stadium in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET, and Dak Prescott’s #4 passing yards number is the highest on the entire Week 3 board at roughly 262.5 to 264.5 yards (-114/-115 on both sides depending on the book). That’s a testament to how well he’s playing early on. Prescott just passed Tony Romo for the franchise record in career touchdown passes last week, going 26-of-31 for 279 yards and 4 touchdowns against Washington. Through two games he’s at 454 yards, 6 touchdowns, and just 1 interception.

The matchup gives him plenty to work with. Baltimore’s defense allowed 252 passing yards in a Week 2 loss to New Orleans, and while the Ravens have generally been stout early, Prescott has cleared 264.5 yards in the majority of his outings when he’s been given multiple options to throw to. With Dallas trending pass-heavy and the Cowboys’ red-zone efficiency sitting at an eye-opening 85.7% through two weeks, there’s little reason to expect Prescott to pump the brakes in a game where Dallas may need to keep pace on the scoreboard.

Geno Smith Gets a Beat-Up Lions Secondary

Geno Smith and the Jets head to Detroit for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff, and while it’s the least glamorous matchup of the three on paper, it might be the softest defense of the bunch. The Lions have allowed 457.5 total yards per game and 35.5 points per game through two weeks, ranking 31st in the NFL in both categories. Detroit’s secondary is dealing with real issues, too — safety Brian Branch is still working back from a ruptured Achilles, Kerby Joseph has a knee issue that’s lingered, and cornerback Terrion Arnold has taken a step back from his rookie form.

Smith’s #7 passing yards prop sits at 223.5, a number he’s well-equipped to clear given he’s thrown for 462 yards (231 per game) at a 70.8% completion rate through two weeks. There’s also value on Smith going over 1.5 passing touchdowns, a number priced generously at plus-money across most books given how often Detroit has been giving up chunk plays and touchdowns through the air this season. Against a defense playing from behind as often as the Lions have been, expect the Jets to lean on Smith to keep pace, and expect him to have the volume to get there. If you want to shop around for the best current numbers on any of these bets, the live NFL odds page is a good place to compare books before locking anything in.

Sunday’s Passing Prop Edge

All three of these quarterbacks are getting volume, and all three are facing defenses with real, verifiable weaknesses at the position group that matters most. That’s the combination worth betting on every week of the NFL season.

Lines will keep moving right up to kickoff, so check your book of choice before you lock in your Sunday card.