Friday’s MLB slate is loaded with swing-and-miss stuff on the mound, and three starters in particular are lined up to feast on strikeouts. Whether it’s a Cy Young-caliber arm facing a lineup that chases, a suddenly dominant Blue Jays ace, or a soft-tossing lefty who’s quietly authored one of the best seasons in baseball, all three of these strikeout props have real analytical support behind them.

Here’s why each of these three punchout numbers looks beatable tonight, and how to build them into your card.

Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Reds

Paul Skenes takes the mound for the Pirates against the Reds with his strikeout over/under sitting at 7.5, priced around -124 at most books. That number should feel low for a pitcher who ranks among the National League’s strikeout leaders and has racked up 149 punchouts already this season with a 3.65 ERA. Skenes’ fastball-splitter combo generates chases and empty swings at an elite clip, and Cincinnati’s lineup has shown real vulnerability against premium velocity all year.

The track record against this specific opponent backs it up, too. Skenes has cleared 7-plus strikeouts in the majority of his recent starts, and his overall strikeout rate this season — comfortably north of a strikeout per inning — gives him plenty of margin to clear this line even in a start where he doesn’t have his best command. When a pitcher with this kind of raw stuff faces a Reds team that will chase secondary pitches out of the zone, 8 strikeouts is well within reach before he’s even worked six full innings.

Dylan Cease Over 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals

Dylan Cease has been every bit the ace Toronto hoped for, and his strikeout prop at 7.5 (priced around -128) lines up perfectly with what he’s done all season. Cease is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per game across his starts this year and has piled up 167 strikeouts on the season — numbers that put him firmly in the AL’s top tier of swing-and-miss pitchers. His slider remains one of the nastiest chase pitches in baseball, and that pitch alone has been enough to push him past this kind of number start after start.

The matchup only helps his case. St. Louis’ lineup doesn’t feature the kind of contact-oriented approach that neutralizes a high-strikeout arm, and Cease has shown he can rack up strikeouts against just about any opponent when his slider is working. With a career-best strikeout rate this season and a matchup that doesn’t scream “trouble,” this is one of the more comfortable strikeout overs on the board tonight.

Foster Griffin Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves

Foster Griffin might be the most underrated arm in baseball right now, and his strikeout prop against the Braves at 5.5 (around +110) looks like clear value given what he’s done all season. Griffin sits at 12-2 with a sparkling 2.76 ERA and has struck out 113 batters this year, translating to 8.72 strikeouts per nine innings — an elite rate for a pitcher who doesn’t light up radar guns. His command has been the real separator: a near 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio means he’s attacking the zone and getting hitters to swing, not nibbling his way into deep counts.

Atlanta’s lineup can certainly do damage, and this game’s total sits near 9.5 runs, reflecting two offenses capable of scoring in bunches. But that cuts both ways for a strikeout prop — a lineup willing to swing the bat gives Griffin more chances to rack up whiffs, especially against a pitcher who’s shown he can miss bats even when the results aren’t always pretty. At just 5.5, this line undersells a pitcher averaging nearly 9 strikeouts per nine all year. Bettors comparing lines across books should check the live MLB odds page before locking anything in, since plus-money numbers like this one can move fast.

Lock These In

All three of these strikeout props share the same theme: pitchers whose season-long numbers clearly outpace the lines the books have set for tonight. Skenes and Cease are both elite strikeout arms facing lineups without a clear counter, and Griffin’s command-driven dominance makes his total look especially soft at plus-money.

Stack all three into a parlay for a bigger payday, or play them individually — either way, these are the strikeout numbers to build around on Friday’s slate.